MEDIUM confidence: 100% data completeness, but the composite (60) sits in the indecisive 30–70 range — strong-buy and short calls require a more decisive composite. What does confidence mean?
Technical context for active traders — derived from price, the 50/200-day moving averages, the 52-week range, and recent volume. Not part of the QScore.
Fama-French 5-factor (2×3) + Momentum, monthly OLS with Newey-West errors. Bars show signed factor betas; faded bars/figures aren't statistically significant.
Avg target $65 (last qtr, 6 analysts) → $0 (last mo, 0) (-100.0%).
Buy-rated share 60% → 52% over ~3 months (-8pp).
| Quarter | Est. | Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 2026 | $1.14 | $1.18 | +3.5% |
| Jan 2026 | $1.19 | $1.26 | +5.9% |
| Oct 2025 | $1.13 | $1.22 | +8.0% |
| Jul 2025 | $1.07 | $1.11 | +3.7% |
| Apr 2025 | $0.98 | $1.03 | +5.2% |
| Jan 2025 | $1.04 | $1.07 | +2.9% |
| Oct 2024 | $0.99 | $1.03 | +4.0% |
| Jul 2024 | $0.94 | $0.98 | +4.3% |
Net insider -$7.2M over 180 days (0 open-market buys, 4 sells). Insider buying is the informative signal; routine selling is normal.
Short interest, days-to-cover, and institutional-ownership change require a data-plan upgrade (not yet available).
Forward-return IC, quintile spread & hit rate publish on /performance as the tracking panel accrues enough no-look-ahead history.
Net buyback (repurchases less issuance) ÷ market cap, plus trailing dividend yield.
| Metric (USD) | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $23.7B— | $27.4B+15.5% | $40.6B+48.3% | $42.7B+5.1% | $42.9B+0.3% |
| EPS (dil.) | $5.10— | $3.69-27.6% | $3.27-11.4% | $3.79+15.9% | $4.61+21.6% |
| Free Cash Flow | $9.9B— | $21.1B+114.0% | $8.4B-60.0% | $11.3B+33.5% | $8.0B-29.3% |
| Gross Margin | 100.8% | 81.0%-19.7pp | 63.4%-17.7pp | 58.8%-4.6pp | 62.8%+4.1pp |
| Operating Margin | 42.9% | 26.6%-16.2pp | 16.9%-9.7pp | 18.5%+1.6pp | 22.2%+3.7pp |
| Net Margin | 33.6% | 21.3%-12.3pp | 13.4%-7.9pp | 14.7%+1.4pp | 17.7%+2.9pp |
Absolute figures with year-over-year change. Margins show the level with the change in percentage points (pp). “n/m” = not meaningful (prior ≤ 0); ⚠ marks a large percentage off a small base — read the dollar figure.
The QScore of 60 for U.S. Bancorp indicates a moderately positive outlook, driven by strong momentum with a 12-month return of 35.9% and a bullish 50-day versus 200-day moving average. The stock's value score is neutral, trading at a P/E of 12.8, while its growth score is weighed down by negative free cash flow growth. The short-term score is 7 points higher than the long-term score, suggesting some near-term optimism. U.S. Bancorp exhibits strong risk characteristics, with a beta of 1.0 and relatively low volatility.