Live forward-return tracking

Forward-return horizons

Each horizon reports the information coefficient (Spearman rank correlation between composite QScore at the snapshot date and the subsequent price return) and the long-short quintile spread (mean return of the top-score fifth minus the bottom-score fifth). Numbers appear once a full-universe snapshot has a forward partner the required number of trading days out; until then the data is still accumulating.

IC is measured only over the full, stable stock universe, which has been captured cleanly since 12 June 2026 (earlier snapshots covered a smaller or fund-contaminated set and are excluded from the cross-section). The first 1-month reading therefore lands in mid-July 2026.

Preliminary marks horizons where fewer than two non-overlapping windows of history exist — the IC is directional evidence, not yet a statistically settled number. Returns are price-only (dividends not adjusted) and winsorized to the interval [−50%, +100%] for the quintile means to neutralize split artifacts; the rank-based IC is unaffected. Names that leave the universe between snapshot and horizon are included at their actual settled close on the horizon date (a committed exit-price ledger), so survivors are no longer the only names counted; a true delisting with no settled price is the rare excluded case. Fundamental factors (value, growth, profitability) are scored from vendor TTM figures frozen as of each snapshot date — so no look-ahead — rather than strictly as-reported, as-of-filing-date data; an as-reported point-in-time reconstruction is on the roadmap.

Why this is not a backtest

A backtest goes the other direction in time: it reconstructs what scores would have been at points in the past and pairs them with forward returns from those past points. That requires point-in-time fundamentals, an as-of-date pipeline, and a survivorship- inclusive universe — all hard to do honestly without specialized data. This page does something simpler and more bulletproof: it captures every score forward from this date and pairs them with the actual returns that follow.

The trade-off is patience. Backtests can produce a number on day one. Forward tracking produces a credible 1-month IC number after roughly a calendar month of capture, a 3-month IC after three calendar months, and so on. We're publishing the counter so that the wait is visible and the data is auditable as it grows.

The full backtest is still on the roadmap — see the validation pledge for the exact list of metrics required before subscription billing turns on.

Most recent snapshot

Reflects the October 29, 2026 market close. Captured at 2026-10-30T11:57:34.660Z. Top 10 by composite — full snapshot file lives at data/snapshots/2026-10-29.json in the public repository.