MEDIUM confidence: 100% data completeness, but the composite (61) sits in the indecisive 30–70 range — strong-buy and short calls require a more decisive composite. What does confidence mean?
Technical context for active traders — derived from price, the 50/200-day moving averages, the 52-week range, and recent volume. Not part of the QScore.
Dated events from the market calendar; the “also watch” items are AI-generated observations from QScoring data. Informational only — not investment advice, and dates can change.
Fama-French 5-factor (2×3) + Momentum, monthly OLS with Newey-West errors. Bars show signed factor betas; faded bars/figures aren't statistically significant.
AI classification of policy/regulatory sensitivity from the company's sector, industry, and business description. Exposure/sensitivity only — not a political opinion, a prediction of government action, or investment advice. As of 2026-07-10.
Net insider -$9.7M over 180 days (1 open-market buys, 5 sells). Insider buying is the informative signal; routine selling is normal.
Short interest, days-to-cover, and institutional-ownership change require a data-plan upgrade (not yet available).
Forward-return IC, quintile spread & hit rate publish on /performance as the tracking panel accrues enough no-look-ahead history.
Net buyback (repurchases less issuance) ÷ market cap, plus trailing dividend yield.
Buy-rated share 86% → 86% over ~3 months (+0pp).
| Quarter | Est. | Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 2026 | $7.90 | $8.29 | +4.9% |
| May 2026 | $8.10 | $8.23 | +1.6% |
| Feb 2026 | $8.75 | $9.48 | +8.3% |
| Nov 2025 | $5.83 | $6.10 | +4.6% |
| Jul 2025 | $5.26 | $5.39 | +2.5% |
| May 2025 | $5.10 | $5.20 | +2.0% |
| Feb 2025 | $6.02 | $6.53 | +8.5% |
| Nov 2024 | $4.84 | $4.82 | -0.4% |
| Metric (USD) | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $2.4B— | $2.3B-3.4% | $2.1B-11.7% | $2.0B-0.8% | $2.4B+19.8% |
| EPS (dil.) | $13.05— | $25.35+94.3% | $17.42-31.3% | $15.13-13.1% | $22.74+50.3% |
| Free Cash Flow | $1.3B— | $1.0B-16.6% | $862M-17.4% | $929M+7.8% | $1.0B+8.2% |
| Gross Margin | 56.6% | 54.0%-2.6pp | 55.9%+1.9pp | 55.2%-0.7pp | 86.0%+30.9pp |
| Operating Margin | 40.0% | 34.6%-5.5pp | 35.5%+0.9pp | 34.6%-0.9pp | 31.8%-2.9pp |
| Net Margin | 23.4% | 49.2%+25.7pp | 32.7%-16.5pp | 25.1%-7.6pp | 29.3%+4.2pp |
Absolute figures with year-over-year change. Margins show the level with the change in percentage points (pp). “n/m” = not meaningful (prior ≤ 0); ⚠ marks a large percentage off a small base — read the dollar figure.
Working the DCF backward: holding the assumptions below, this is the free-cash-flow growth today's price implies over the next 10 years. It is a read on the price's embedded expectations — not a fair-value or target price.
The price implies FCF growth below the analyst consensus of 4.9%/yr (revenue basis).
Base free cash flow $932M (avg FY2023–FY2025; latest year $1.0B) · equity value $9.6B · levered FCF discounted at the cost of equity. Reverse DCF is illustrative, not advice.
The QScore of 61 for AMG indicates a relatively neutral outlook, with the stock scoring high on momentum and profitability, driven by its 69.3% return over the past year and an ROE of 26.9%. The value category scores lower due to a P/E of 11.6, which is relatively low, and a P/B of 3.1. The short-term score is slightly higher than the long-term score, suggesting some near-term optimism, with the stock exhibiting strong momentum and a bullish 50-day versus 200-day moving average trend.