MEDIUM confidence: 100% data completeness, but the composite (58) sits in the indecisive 30–70 range — strong-buy and short calls require a more decisive composite. What does confidence mean?
Technical context for active traders — derived from price, the 50/200-day moving averages, the 52-week range, and recent volume. Not part of the QScore.
Fama-French 5-factor (2×3) + Momentum, monthly OLS with Newey-West errors. Bars show signed factor betas; faded bars/figures aren't statistically significant.
Dated events from the market calendar; the “also watch” items are AI-generated observations from QScoring data. Informational only — not investment advice, and dates can change.
AI classification of policy/regulatory sensitivity from the company's sector, industry, and business description. Exposure/sensitivity only — not a political opinion, a prediction of government action, or investment advice. As of 2026-07-10.
| Metric (USD) | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $853M— | $1.9B+117.4% | $2.5B+37.0% | $3.0B+16.4% | $3.7B+25.5% |
| EPS (dil.) | $1.67— | $1.50-10.2% | $1.94+29.3% | $1.68-13.4% | $1.79+6.5% |
| Free Cash Flow | $282M— | $777M+175.7% | $478M-38.4% | $592M+23.9% | $637M+7.7% |
| Gross Margin | 98.5% | 85.4%-13.1pp | 70.0%-15.4pp | 60.0%-9.9pp | 63.6%+3.6pp |
| Operating Margin | 39.7% | 29.4%-10.4pp | 29.6%+0.2pp | 23.0%-6.6pp | 23.6%+0.5pp |
| Net Margin | 32.5% | 23.1%-9.4pp | 22.9%-0.2pp | 18.2%-4.7pp | 18.0%-0.2pp |
Absolute figures with year-over-year change. Margins show the level with the change in percentage points (pp). “n/m” = not meaningful (prior ≤ 0); ⚠ marks a large percentage off a small base — read the dollar figure.
Working the DCF backward: holding the assumptions below, this is the free-cash-flow growth today's price implies over the next 10 years. It is a read on the price's embedded expectations — not a fair-value or target price.
The price implies FCF growth below the analyst consensus of 13.9%/yr (revenue basis).
Base free cash flow $569M (avg FY2023–FY2025; latest year $637M) · equity value $9.6B · levered FCF discounted at the cost of equity. Reverse DCF is illustrative, not advice.
Avg target $29 (last qtr, 5 analysts) → $28 (last mo, 3) (-3.6%).
Buy-rated share 67% → 75% over ~3 months (+8pp).
| Quarter | Est. | Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 2026 | $0.66 | $0.66 | -0.2% |
| Jul 2026 | $0.63 | $0.65 | +3.8% |
| Apr 2026 | $0.60 | $0.61 | +0.8% |
| Jan 2026 | $0.59 | $0.62 | +5.1% |
| Oct 2025 | $0.56 | $0.59 | +5.0% |
| Jul 2025 | $0.51 | $0.53 | +3.9% |
| Apr 2025 | $0.42 | $0.45 | +7.1% |
| Jan 2025 | $0.46 | $0.49 | +6.5% |
Net buyback (repurchases less issuance) ÷ market cap, plus trailing dividend yield.
Net insider -$844K over 180 days (0 open-market buys, 2 sells). Insider buying is the informative signal; routine selling is normal.
Short interest, days-to-cover, and institutional-ownership change require a data-plan upgrade (not yet available).
Forward-return IC, quintile spread & hit rate publish on /performance as the tracking panel accrues enough no-look-ahead history.
The QScore of 58 indicates a neutral outlook for Old National Bancorp, with the stock scoring high on value and risk, but lower on growth and momentum. The value score is driven by a relatively low P/E of 10.1 and P/B of 1.1, indicating the stock trades at a discount. In contrast, the growth score is held back by modest EPS growth of 6.5%, despite strong revenue growth of 25.5%. The long-term and short-term scores are closely aligned, suggesting a consistent view of the stock's fundamentals.