MEDIUM confidence: 100% data completeness, but the composite (58) sits in the indecisive 30–70 range — strong-buy and short calls require a more decisive composite. What does confidence mean?
Technical context for active traders — derived from price, the 50/200-day moving averages, the 52-week range, and recent volume. Not part of the QScore.
Fama-French 5-factor (2×3) + Momentum, monthly OLS with Newey-West errors. Bars show signed factor betas; faded bars/figures aren't statistically significant.
Avg target $27 (last qtr, 3 analysts) → $0 (last mo, 0) (-100.0%).
Buy-rated share 69% → 70% over ~3 months (+1pp).
| Quarter | Est. | Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 2026 | $0.60 | $0.61 | +0.8% |
| Jan 2026 | $0.59 | $0.62 | +5.1% |
| Oct 2025 | $0.56 | $0.59 | +5.0% |
| Jul 2025 | $0.51 | $0.53 | +3.9% |
| Apr 2025 | $0.42 | $0.45 | +7.1% |
| Jan 2025 | $0.46 | $0.49 | +6.5% |
| Oct 2024 | $0.46 | $0.46 | +0.0% |
| Jul 2024 | $0.44 | $0.46 | +4.5% |
| Metric (USD) | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $853M— | $1.9B+117.4% | $2.5B+37.0% | $3.0B+16.4% | $3.7B+25.5% |
| EPS (dil.) | $1.67— | $1.50-10.2% | $1.94+29.3% | $1.68-13.4% | $1.79+6.5% |
| Free Cash Flow | $282M— | $777M+175.7% | $478M-38.4% | $592M+23.9% | $637M+7.7% |
| Gross Margin | 98.5% | 85.4%-13.1pp | 70.0%-15.4pp | 60.0%-9.9pp | 63.6%+3.6pp |
| Operating Margin | 39.7% | 29.4%-10.4pp | 29.6%+0.2pp | 23.0%-6.6pp | 23.6%+0.5pp |
| Net Margin | 32.5% | 23.1%-9.4pp | 22.9%-0.2pp | 18.2%-4.7pp | 18.0%-0.2pp |
Absolute figures with year-over-year change. Margins show the level with the change in percentage points (pp). “n/m” = not meaningful (prior ≤ 0); ⚠ marks a large percentage off a small base — read the dollar figure.
Net buyback (repurchases less issuance) ÷ market cap, plus trailing dividend yield.
Net insider -$50.8M over 180 days (0 open-market buys, 5 sells). Insider buying is the informative signal; routine selling is normal.
Short interest, days-to-cover, and institutional-ownership change require a data-plan upgrade (not yet available).
Forward-return IC, quintile spread & hit rate publish on /performance as the tracking panel accrues enough no-look-ahead history.
The QScore of 58 for Old National Bancorp indicates a moderately attractive stock, with the short-term score of 61 being slightly higher than the long-term score of 56. The stock scores high on momentum, with a 12-month return of 20.4% and a bullish 50-day versus 200-day moving average. Value and growth categories are relatively neutral, with a P/E of 13.2 and revenue growth of 25.5%, while risk factors, such as a beta of 0.8, contribute to a higher score in that category.