MEDIUM confidence: 100% data completeness, but the composite (62) sits in the indecisive 30–70 range — strong-buy and short calls require a more decisive composite. What does confidence mean?
Technical context for active traders — derived from price, the 50/200-day moving averages, the 52-week range, and recent volume. Not part of the QScore.
AI classification of policy/regulatory sensitivity from the company's sector, industry, and business description. Exposure/sensitivity only — not a political opinion, a prediction of government action, or investment advice. As of 2026-07-10.
Fama-French 5-factor (2×3) + Momentum, monthly OLS with Newey-West errors. Bars show signed factor betas; faded bars/figures aren't statistically significant.
Dated events from the market calendar; the “also watch” items are AI-generated observations from QScoring data. Informational only — not investment advice, and dates can change.
Net insider -$2.4M over 180 days (0 open-market buys, 4 sells). Insider buying is the informative signal; routine selling is normal.
Short interest, days-to-cover, and institutional-ownership change require a data-plan upgrade (not yet available).
Forward-return IC, quintile spread & hit rate publish on /performance as the tracking panel accrues enough no-look-ahead history.
Net buyback (repurchases less issuance) ÷ market cap, plus trailing dividend yield.
Buy-rated share 53% → 60% over ~3 months (+7pp).
| Quarter | Est. | Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 2026 | $0.46 | $0.51 | +9.8% |
| Jul 2026 | $0.42 | $0.44 | +4.2% |
| Apr 2026 | $0.41 | $0.44 | +6.4% |
| Jan 2026 | $0.39 | $0.41 | +5.9% |
| Oct 2025 | $0.38 | $0.41 | +7.9% |
| Jul 2025 | $0.35 | $0.35 | +1.2% |
| Apr 2025 | $0.32 | $0.33 | +3.8% |
| Jan 2025 | $0.32 | $0.38 | +18.8% |
| Metric (USD) | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $7.3B— | $7.9B+7.9% | $10.2B+29.3% | $9.1B-11.5% | $11.2B+23.6% |
| EPS (dil.) | $2.63— | $1.93-26.6% | $0.88-54.4% | $-0.32-136.4% | $1.52n/m |
| Free Cash Flow | $1.1B— | $4.4B+301.2% | $2.8B-36.7% | $599M-78.3% | $2.1B+250.8% |
| Gross Margin | 101.7% | 82.5%-19.2pp | 56.0%-26.5pp | 44.8%-11.2pp | 62.3%+17.5pp |
| Operating Margin | 44.4% | 29.5%-14.9pp | 11.3%-18.2pp | -3.4%-14.7pp | 20.6%+24.0pp |
| Net Margin | 35.8% | 24.2%-11.6pp | 9.5%-14.8pp | -1.8%-11.2pp | 16.3%+18.1pp |
Absolute figures with year-over-year change. Margins show the level with the change in percentage points (pp). “n/m” = not meaningful (prior ≤ 0); ⚠ marks a large percentage off a small base — read the dollar figure.
Working the DCF backward: holding the assumptions below, this is the free-cash-flow growth today's price implies over the next 10 years. It is a read on the price's embedded expectations — not a fair-value or target price.
The price implies FCF growth below the analyst consensus of 15.2%/yr (revenue basis).
Base free cash flow $1.8B (avg FY2023–FY2025; latest year $2.1B) · equity value $22.7B · levered FCF discounted at the cost of equity. Reverse DCF is illustrative, not advice.
The QScore of 62 for KeyCorp suggests a moderately positive outlook, driven by strong growth scores, with revenue and EPS growth of 23.6% and 578.1%, respectively. The stock's value scores are more neutral, with a P/E of 11.5, while momentum is somewhat muted, given the 3-month return of -7.8%. The long-term and short-term scores are closely aligned, indicating a consistent view across different time horizons, with growth and risk factors contributing to the overall score, while profitability is a relative weakness, with an ROE of 10.9%.