MEDIUM confidence: 100% data completeness, but the composite (61) sits in the indecisive 30–70 range — strong-buy and short calls require a more decisive composite. What does confidence mean?
Technical context for active traders — derived from price, the 50/200-day moving averages, the 52-week range, and recent volume. Not part of the QScore.
AI classification of policy/regulatory sensitivity from the company's sector, industry, and business description. Exposure/sensitivity only — not a political opinion, a prediction of government action, or investment advice. As of 2026-07-10.
Fama-French 5-factor (2×3) + Momentum, monthly OLS with Newey-West errors. Bars show signed factor betas; faded bars/figures aren't statistically significant.
Dated events from the market calendar; the “also watch” items are AI-generated observations from QScoring data. Informational only — not investment advice, and dates can change.
Net buyback (repurchases less issuance) ÷ market cap, plus trailing dividend yield.
Fewer than 3 analysts refreshed a price target in the last month, so no revision can be computed. Prior quarter: $168 avg across 10 analysts.
Buy-rated share 85% → 81% over ~3 months (-3pp).
| Quarter | Est. | Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 2026 | $3.22 | $3.56 | +10.6% |
| Jul 2026 | $3.08 | $3.57 | +15.9% |
| Apr 2026 | $2.82 | $3.41 | +20.9% |
| Jan 2026 | $2.71 | $3.08 | +13.7% |
| Oct 2025 | $2.50 | $2.70 | +8.0% |
| Jul 2025 | $2.37 | $2.96 | +24.9% |
| Apr 2025 | $2.19 | $2.58 | +17.8% |
| Jan 2025 | $2.25 | $2.49 | +10.7% |
Net insider -$6.7M over 180 days (2 open-market buys, 18 sells). Insider buying is the informative signal; routine selling is normal.
Short interest, days-to-cover, and institutional-ownership change require a data-plan upgrade (not yet available).
Forward-return IC, quintile spread & hit rate publish on /performance as the tracking panel accrues enough no-look-ahead history.
Working the DCF backward: holding the assumptions below, this is the free-cash-flow growth today's price implies over the next 10 years. It is a read on the price's embedded expectations — not a fair-value or target price.
The price implies FCF growth below the analyst consensus of 21.2%/yr (revenue basis).
Base free cash flow $542M (avg FY2023–FY2025; latest year $978M) · equity value $10.2B · levered FCF discounted at the cost of equity. Reverse DCF is illustrative, not advice.
| Metric (USD) | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $1.2B— | $1.6B+27.5% | $2.2B+41.8% | $2.6B+17.5% | $4.4B+68.5% |
| EPS (dil.) | $7.24— | $8.86+22.4% | $7.18-19.0% | $8.99+25.2% | $9.13+1.6% |
| Free Cash Flow | $500M— | $718M+43.5% | $446M-37.9% | $201M-54.9% | $978M+386.4% |
| Gross Margin | 94.7% | 83.5%-11.2pp | 57.2%-26.2pp | 53.3%-3.9pp | 54.4%+1.1pp |
| Operating Margin | 34.5% | 33.6%-0.9pp | 18.8%-14.8pp | 20.5%+1.7pp | 20.3%-0.3pp |
| Net Margin | 28.4% | 27.3%-1.2pp | 15.6%-11.7pp | 16.7%+1.1pp | 15.8%-0.9pp |
Absolute figures with year-over-year change. Margins show the level with the change in percentage points (pp). “n/m” = not meaningful (prior ≤ 0); ⚠ marks a large percentage off a small base — read the dollar figure.
The QScore of 61 indicates a neutral outlook for UMBF, driven by a mix of factors. The stock scores high on growth, with notable revenue and free cash flow growth of 68.5% and 386.4%, respectively. However, its value score is relatively lower, as it trades at a P/E of 10.1 and P/B of 1.3, which is somewhat balanced by its decent profitability, with an ROE of 13.2%. The long-term and short-term scores are closely aligned, suggesting a consistent view of the stock's prospects.