MEDIUM confidence: 100% data completeness, but the composite (64) sits in the indecisive 30–70 range — strong-buy and short calls require a more decisive composite. What does confidence mean?
Technical context for active traders — derived from price, the 50/200-day moving averages, the 52-week range, and recent volume. Not part of the QScore.
Fama-French 5-factor (2×3) + Momentum, monthly OLS with Newey-West errors. Bars show signed factor betas; faded bars/figures aren't statistically significant.
Net buyback (repurchases less issuance) ÷ market cap, plus trailing dividend yield.
| Metric (USD) | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $1.2B— | $1.6B+27.5% | $2.2B+41.8% | $2.6B+17.5% | $4.4B+68.5% |
| EPS (dil.) | $7.24— | $8.86+22.4% | $7.18-19.0% | $8.99+25.2% | $9.13+1.6% |
| Free Cash Flow | $500M— | $718M+43.5% | $446M-37.9% | $201M-54.9% | $978M+386.4% |
| Gross Margin | 94.7% | 83.5%-11.2pp | 57.2%-26.2pp | 53.3%-3.9pp | 54.4%+1.1pp |
| Operating Margin | 34.5% | 33.6%-0.9pp | 18.8%-14.8pp | 20.5%+1.7pp | 20.3%-0.3pp |
| Net Margin | 28.4% | 27.3%-1.2pp | 15.6%-11.7pp | 16.7%+1.1pp | 15.8%-0.9pp |
Absolute figures with year-over-year change. Margins show the level with the change in percentage points (pp). “n/m” = not meaningful (prior ≤ 0); ⚠ marks a large percentage off a small base — read the dollar figure.
Net insider -$3.7M over 180 days (2 open-market buys, 8 sells). Insider buying is the informative signal; routine selling is normal.
Short interest, days-to-cover, and institutional-ownership change require a data-plan upgrade (not yet available).
Forward-return IC, quintile spread & hit rate publish on /performance as the tracking panel accrues enough no-look-ahead history.
Avg target $153 (last qtr, 6 analysts) → $161 (last mo, 1) (+5.0%).
Buy-rated share 85% → 77% over ~3 months (-8pp).
| Quarter | Est. | Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 2026 | $2.82 | $3.41 | +20.9% |
| Jan 2026 | $2.71 | $3.08 | +13.7% |
| Oct 2025 | $2.50 | $2.70 | +8.0% |
| Jul 2025 | $2.37 | $2.96 | +24.9% |
| Apr 2025 | $2.19 | $2.58 | +17.8% |
| Jan 2025 | $2.25 | $2.49 | +10.7% |
| Oct 2024 | $2.20 | $2.19 | -0.5% |
| Jul 2024 | $2.01 | $2.07 | +3.0% |
The QScore of 64 for UMBF suggests a relatively positive outlook, driven by strong growth and momentum factors, with scores of 81 and 70, respectively. The stock's growth score is boosted by notable revenue and free cash flow growth of 68.5% and 386.4%, respectively. However, the value score is lower at 54, reflecting a P/E of 12.8, which is relatively in line with peers. The short-term score is slightly higher than the long-term score, indicating some recent strength, with the stock exhibiting strong momentum, up 41.3% over the past year.