MEDIUM confidence: 100% data completeness, but the composite (63) sits in the indecisive 30–70 range — strong-buy and short calls require a more decisive composite. What does confidence mean?
Technical context for active traders — derived from price, the 50/200-day moving averages, the 52-week range, and recent volume. Not part of the QScore.
Fama-French 5-factor (2×3) + Momentum, monthly OLS with Newey-West errors. Bars show signed factor betas; faded bars/figures aren't statistically significant.
AI classification of policy/regulatory sensitivity from the company's sector, industry, and business description. Exposure/sensitivity only — not a political opinion, a prediction of government action, or investment advice. As of 2026-07-10.
Dated events from the market calendar; the “also watch” items are AI-generated observations from QScoring data. Informational only — not investment advice, and dates can change.
Net insider -$5.7M over 180 days (0 open-market buys, 15 sells). Insider buying is the informative signal; routine selling is normal.
Short interest, days-to-cover, and institutional-ownership change require a data-plan upgrade (not yet available).
Forward-return IC, quintile spread & hit rate publish on /performance as the tracking panel accrues enough no-look-ahead history.
Avg target $164 (last qtr, 10 analysts) → $171 (last mo, 6) (+3.8%).
Buy-rated share 83% → 85% over ~3 months (+1pp).
| Quarter | Est. | Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 2026 | $3.12 | $3.57 | +14.4% |
| Apr 2026 | $2.82 | $3.41 | +20.9% |
| Jan 2026 | $2.71 | $3.08 | +13.7% |
| Oct 2025 | $2.50 | $2.70 | +8.0% |
| Jul 2025 | $2.37 | $2.96 | +24.9% |
| Apr 2025 | $2.19 | $2.58 | +17.8% |
| Jan 2025 | $2.25 | $2.49 | +10.7% |
| Oct 2024 | $2.20 | $2.19 | -0.5% |
Net buyback (repurchases less issuance) ÷ market cap, plus trailing dividend yield.
| Metric (USD) | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $1.2B— | $1.6B+27.5% | $2.2B+41.8% | $2.6B+17.5% | $4.4B+68.5% |
| EPS (dil.) | $7.24— | $8.86+22.4% | $7.18-19.0% | $8.99+25.2% | $9.13+1.6% |
| Free Cash Flow | $500M— | $718M+43.5% | $446M-37.9% | $201M-54.9% | $978M+386.4% |
| Gross Margin | 94.7% | 83.5%-11.2pp | 57.2%-26.2pp | 53.3%-3.9pp | 54.4%+1.1pp |
| Operating Margin | 34.5% | 33.6%-0.9pp | 18.8%-14.8pp | 20.5%+1.7pp | 20.3%-0.3pp |
| Net Margin | 28.4% | 27.3%-1.2pp | 15.6%-11.7pp | 16.7%+1.1pp | 15.8%-0.9pp |
Absolute figures with year-over-year change. Margins show the level with the change in percentage points (pp). “n/m” = not meaningful (prior ≤ 0); ⚠ marks a large percentage off a small base — read the dollar figure.
Working the DCF backward: holding the assumptions below, this is the free-cash-flow growth today's price implies over the next 10 years. It is a read on the price's embedded expectations — not a fair-value or target price.
The price implies FCF growth below the analyst consensus of 20.7%/yr (revenue basis).
Base free cash flow $542M (avg FY2023–FY2025; latest year $978M) · equity value $11.5B · levered FCF discounted at the cost of equity. Reverse DCF is illustrative, not advice.
The QScore of 63 for UMBF suggests a relatively neutral outlook, with the short-term score slightly outpacing the long-term score. UMBF scores high on growth, driven by impressive revenue and free cash flow growth of 68.5% and 386.4%, respectively. However, its value score is somewhat tempered by a P/E of 12.5, which is relatively in line with peers, and its profitability score is held back by an ROE of 12.2%, which is moderate. The stock exhibits strong momentum, with a 12-month return of 32.0% and a bullish 50-day versus 200-day moving average crossover.