MEDIUM confidence: 100% data completeness, but the composite (62) sits in the indecisive 30–70 range — strong-buy and short calls require a more decisive composite. What does confidence mean?
Technical context for active traders — derived from price, the 50/200-day moving averages, the 52-week range, and recent volume. Not part of the QScore.
Fama-French 5-factor (2×3) + Momentum, monthly OLS with Newey-West errors. Bars show signed factor betas; faded bars/figures aren't statistically significant.
AI classification of policy/regulatory sensitivity from the company's sector, industry, and business description. Exposure/sensitivity only — not a political opinion, a prediction of government action, or investment advice. As of 2026-07-10.
Dated events from the market calendar; the “also watch” items are AI-generated observations from QScoring data. Informational only — not investment advice, and dates can change.
Net buyback (repurchases less issuance) ÷ market cap, plus trailing dividend yield.
The QScore of 62 for Webster Financial Corporation indicates a relatively neutral outlook, with the short-term score of 64 being slightly more favorable than the long-term score of 59. The stock scores high on momentum, with a 12-month return of 37.3% and a bullish 50-day versus 200-day moving average. However, it is dragged down by lower scores in growth and profitability, due in part to negative free cash flow growth and a return on equity of 10.7%. The stock trades at a moderate valuation, with a P/E of 12.9.
Net insider -$1.1M over 180 days (0 open-market buys, 2 sells). Insider buying is the informative signal; routine selling is normal.
Short interest, days-to-cover, and institutional-ownership change require a data-plan upgrade (not yet available).
Forward-return IC, quintile spread & hit rate publish on /performance as the tracking panel accrues enough no-look-ahead history.
| Metric (USD) | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $1.3B— | $2.7B+115.3% | $3.9B+44.8% | $4.2B+5.7% | $4.4B+6.1% |
| EPS (dil.) | $4.42— | $3.72-15.8% | $4.91+32.0% | $4.37-11.0% | $5.91+35.2% |
| Free Cash Flow | $672M— | $1.3B+94.5% | $938M-28.2% | $1.4B+45.8% | $1.0B-26.3% |
| Gross Margin | 101.0% | 80.5%-20.5pp | 63.4%-17.1pp | 56.5%-6.9pp | 60.8%+4.3pp |
| Operating Margin | 42.2% | 29.3%-12.9pp | 27.5%-1.8pp | 24.4%-3.1pp | 28.5%+4.1pp |
| Net Margin | 32.3% | 23.7%-8.7pp | 22.0%-1.6pp | 18.4%-3.6pp | 22.7%+4.2pp |
Absolute figures with year-over-year change. Margins show the level with the change in percentage points (pp). “n/m” = not meaningful (prior ≤ 0); ⚠ marks a large percentage off a small base — read the dollar figure.
Working the DCF backward: holding the assumptions below, this is the free-cash-flow growth today's price implies over the next 10 years. It is a read on the price's embedded expectations — not a fair-value or target price.
The price implies FCF growth below the analyst consensus of 5.7%/yr (revenue basis).
Base free cash flow $1.1B (avg FY2023–FY2025; latest year $1.0B) · equity value $12.8B · levered FCF discounted at the cost of equity. Reverse DCF is illustrative, not advice.
Buy-rated share 14% → 14% over ~3 months (+0pp).
| Quarter | Est. | Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 2026 | $1.64 | $1.60 | -2.4% |
| Apr 2026 | $1.53 | $1.57 | +2.6% |
| Jan 2026 | $1.52 | $1.59 | +4.6% |
| Oct 2025 | $1.52 | $1.54 | +1.3% |
| Jul 2025 | $1.44 | $1.52 | +5.6% |
| Apr 2025 | $1.38 | $1.30 | -5.8% |
| Jan 2025 | $1.34 | $1.43 | +6.7% |
| Oct 2024 | $1.35 | $1.34 | -0.7% |