MEDIUM confidence: 100% data completeness, but the composite (60) sits in the indecisive 30–70 range — strong-buy and short calls require a more decisive composite. What does confidence mean?
Technical context for active traders — derived from price, the 50/200-day moving averages, the 52-week range, and recent volume. Not part of the QScore.
Fama-French 5-factor (2×3) + Momentum, monthly OLS with Newey-West errors. Bars show signed factor betas; faded bars/figures aren't statistically significant.
AI classification of policy/regulatory sensitivity from the company's sector, industry, and business description. Exposure/sensitivity only — not a political opinion, a prediction of government action, or investment advice. As of 2026-07-10.
Dated events from the market calendar; the “also watch” items are AI-generated observations from QScoring data. Informational only — not investment advice, and dates can change.
Net insider -$24.5M over 180 days (0 open-market buys, 7 sells). Insider buying is the informative signal; routine selling is normal.
Short interest, days-to-cover, and institutional-ownership change require a data-plan upgrade (not yet available).
Forward-return IC, quintile spread & hit rate publish on /performance as the tracking panel accrues enough no-look-ahead history.
Net buyback (repurchases less issuance) ÷ market cap, plus trailing dividend yield.
Avg target $268 (last qtr, 15 analysts) → $254 (last mo, 5) (-5.2%).
Buy-rated share 43% → 42% over ~3 months (-1pp).
| Quarter | Est. | Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 2026 | $6.06 | $8.99 | +48.3% |
| Apr 2026 | $7.31 | $10.65 | +45.7% |
| Feb 2026 | $9.83 | $14.31 | +45.6% |
| Nov 2025 | $7.67 | $11.17 | +45.6% |
| Jul 2025 | $3.25 | $5.94 | +82.8% |
| Apr 2025 | $2.52 | $3.53 | +40.1% |
| Feb 2025 | $5.40 | $7.67 | +42.0% |
| Oct 2024 | $2.36 | $3.91 | +65.7% |
| Metric (USD) | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $48.7B— | $50.6B+4.0% | $56.6B+11.8% | $63.5B+12.2% | $66.5B+4.6% |
| EPS (dil.) | $4.96— | $-5.03-201.4% | $-1.20n/m | $16.99n/m | $38.19+124.8% |
| Free Cash Flow | $4.8B— | $4.7B-1.5% | $4.0B-15.7% | $8.7B+120.2% | $9.9B+13.3% |
| Gross Margin | 24.7% | 11.2%-13.5pp | 12.7%+1.5pp | 22.8%+10.2pp | 33.2%+10.4pp |
| Operating Margin | 13.3% | -3.6%-16.9pp | -0.6%+3.0pp | 9.1%+9.7pp | 19.8%+10.7pp |
| Net Margin | 3.3% | -2.5%-5.9pp | -0.3%+2.2pp | 7.3%+7.7pp | 15.5%+8.1pp |
Absolute figures with year-over-year change. Margins show the level with the change in percentage points (pp). “n/m” = not meaningful (prior ≤ 0); ⚠ marks a large percentage off a small base — read the dollar figure.
Working the DCF backward: holding the assumptions below, this is the free-cash-flow growth today's price implies over the next 10 years. It is a read on the price's embedded expectations — not a fair-value or target price.
The price implies FCF growth below the analyst consensus of 3.8%/yr (revenue basis).
Base free cash flow $7.5B (avg FY2023–FY2025; latest year $9.9B) · equity value $66.1B · levered FCF discounted at the cost of equity. Reverse DCF is illustrative, not advice.
The QScore of 60 for ALL suggests a moderately attractive stock, driven by strong scores in Momentum and Profitability, with the latter exhibiting a high ROE of 43.1%. The stock's Value score is also a positive factor, with a relatively low P/E of 5.2. However, the Risk score is a drag, due to high 60-day volatility of 27.0%. The long-term and short-term scores are closely aligned, indicating a consistent outlook for the stock.