MEDIUM confidence: 100% data completeness, but the composite (54) sits in the indecisive 30–70 range — strong-buy and short calls require a more decisive composite. What does confidence mean?
Technical context for active traders — derived from price, the 50/200-day moving averages, the 52-week range, and recent volume. Not part of the QScore.
AI classification of policy/regulatory sensitivity from the company's sector, industry, and business description. Exposure/sensitivity only — not a political opinion, a prediction of government action, or investment advice. As of 2026-07-10.
Fama-French 5-factor (2×3) + Momentum, monthly OLS with Newey-West errors. Bars show signed factor betas; faded bars/figures aren't statistically significant.
Dated events from the market calendar; the “also watch” items are AI-generated observations from QScoring data. Informational only — not investment advice, and dates can change.
Avg target $149 (last qtr, 15 analysts) → $150 (last mo, 9) (+0.3%).
Buy-rated share 58% → 56% over ~3 months (-2pp).
| Quarter | Est. | Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 2026 | $3.62 | $3.74 | +3.3% |
| Jun 2026 | $3.22 | $3.43 | +6.5% |
| Apr 2026 | $1.71 | $1.90 | +11.1% |
| Jan 2026 | $2.63 | $3.06 | +16.3% |
| Oct 2025 | $3.38 | $3.63 | +7.4% |
| Jul 2025 | $3.31 | $3.22 | -2.7% |
| Apr 2025 | $2.27 | $2.63 | +15.9% |
| Jan 2025 | $3.31 | $3.25 | -1.8% |
Net buyback (repurchases less issuance) ÷ market cap, plus trailing dividend yield.
| Metric (USD) | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | FY2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $8.8B— | $9.5B+7.2% | $10.0B+5.4% | $10.2B+2.5% | $9.1B-10.5% |
| EPS (dil.) | $-0.21— | $-0.37n/m | $9.39n/m | $-0.45-104.8% | $9.61n/m |
| Free Cash Flow | $1.7B— | $1.7B+2.6% | $1.5B-12.2% | $1.9B+28.3% | $1.8B-7.4% |
| Gross Margin | 52.1% | 50.9%-1.2pp | 49.3%-1.6pp | 51.0%+1.7pp | 51.6%+0.6pp |
| Operating Margin | 32.9% | 31.6%-1.3pp | 31.5%-0.2pp | 35.5%+4.0pp | 31.3%-4.1pp |
| Net Margin | -0.5% | -0.8%-0.3pp | 17.3%+18.1pp | -0.8%-18.1pp | 18.5%+19.3pp |
Absolute figures with year-over-year change. Margins show the level with the change in percentage points (pp). “n/m” = not meaningful (prior ≤ 0); ⚠ marks a large percentage off a small base — read the dollar figure.
Net insider -$631K over 180 days (0 open-market buys, 1 sells). Insider buying is the informative signal; routine selling is normal.
Short interest, days-to-cover, and institutional-ownership change require a data-plan upgrade (not yet available).
Forward-return IC, quintile spread & hit rate publish on /performance as the tracking panel accrues enough no-look-ahead history.
Working the DCF backward: holding the assumptions below, this is the free-cash-flow growth today's price implies over the next 10 years. It is a read on the price's embedded expectations — not a fair-value or target price.
The price implies FCF growth below the analyst consensus of 2.4%/yr (revenue basis).
Base free cash flow $1.7B (avg FY2024–FY2026; latest year $1.8B) · equity value $22.8B · levered FCF discounted at the cost of equity. Reverse DCF is illustrative, not advice.
The QScore of 54 for Constellation Brands indicates a neutral outlook, driven by strong profitability scores, with a notable ROE of 23.6% and operating margin of 30.9%. The stock's value category also scores high, with a P/E of 12.1, suggesting it does not trade at a significant premium. However, growth scores are pulled down by negative revenue and free cash flow growth, while risk scores are impacted by relatively high volatility. The long-term and short-term scores are relatively aligned, with only a 2-point difference.