MEDIUM confidence: 100% data completeness, but the composite (54) sits in the indecisive 30–70 range — strong-buy and short calls require a more decisive composite. What does confidence mean?
Technical context for active traders — derived from price, the 50/200-day moving averages, the 52-week range, and recent volume. Not part of the QScore.
Dated events from the market calendar; the “also watch” items are AI-generated observations from QScoring data. Informational only — not investment advice, and dates can change.
AI classification of policy/regulatory sensitivity from the company's sector, industry, and business description. Exposure/sensitivity only — not a political opinion, a prediction of government action, or investment advice. As of 2026-07-10.
Fama-French 5-factor (2×3) + Momentum, monthly OLS with Newey-West errors. Bars show signed factor betas; faded bars/figures aren't statistically significant.
| Metric (USD) | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $26.3B— | $15.4B-41.4% | $16.8B+8.9% | $17.6B+4.8% | $19.4B+10.4% |
| EPS (dil.) | $5.80— | $7.21+24.3% | $-4.55-163.1% | $-14.05n/m | $5.94n/m |
| Free Cash Flow | $409M— | $361M-11.7% | $577M+59.8% | $1.6B+170.8% | $1.4B-10.5% |
| Gross Margin | 29.4% | 37.5%+8.1pp | 35.9%-1.6pp | 35.8%-0.1pp | 36.4%+0.6pp |
| Operating Margin | 6.9% | 13.6%+6.7pp | 10.6%-3.0pp | 8.3%-2.3pp | 8.2%-0.1pp |
| Net Margin | 5.0% | 10.5%+5.4pp | -5.9%-16.4pp | -17.2%-11.3pp | 6.6%+23.8pp |
Absolute figures with year-over-year change. Margins show the level with the change in percentage points (pp). “n/m” = not meaningful (prior ≤ 0); ⚠ marks a large percentage off a small base — read the dollar figure.
Fewer than 3 analysts refreshed a price target in the last month, so no revision can be computed. Prior quarter: $122 avg across 15 analysts.
Buy-rated share 36% → 37% over ~3 months (+1pp).
| Quarter | Est. | Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 2026 | $1.53 | $1.74 | +13.7% |
| Mar 2026 | $2.53 | $2.56 | +1.2% |
| Dec 2025 | $1.09 | $1.21 | +11.0% |
| Sep 2025 | $0.42 | $0.77 | +84.8% |
| Jun 2025 | $1.21 | $1.26 | +4.1% |
| Mar 2025 | $2.20 | $2.11 | -4.1% |
| Dec 2024 | $1.07 | $1.12 | +4.7% |
| Sep 2024 | $1.04 | $0.67 | -35.6% |
Net buyback (repurchases less issuance) ÷ market cap, plus trailing dividend yield.
Net insider -$1.8B over 180 days (0 open-market buys, 12 sells). Insider buying is the informative signal; routine selling is normal.
Short interest, days-to-cover, and institutional-ownership change require a data-plan upgrade (not yet available).
Forward-return IC, quintile spread & hit rate publish on /performance as the tracking panel accrues enough no-look-ahead history.
Working the DCF backward: holding the assumptions below, this is the free-cash-flow growth today's price implies over the next 10 years. It is a read on the price's embedded expectations — not a fair-value or target price.
The price implies FCF growth above the analyst consensus of 4.9%/yr (revenue basis).
Base free cash flow $1.2B (avg FY2023–FY2025; latest year $1.4B) · equity value $25.1B · levered FCF discounted at the cost of equity. Reverse DCF is illustrative, not advice.
The QScore of 54 for DLTR suggests a neutral outlook, driven by strong momentum and growth scores, which are offset by lower value and risk scores. The stock exhibits strong momentum, with a 12-month return of 14.5% and a 3-month return of 50.5%, and scores high on growth, with revenue growth of 10.4% and EPS growth of 144.3%. However, it trades at a premium, with a P/E of 20.4 and P/B of 7.3, and has a relatively low risk score due to its beta of 0.7 and high 60-day volatility of 48.9%.