MEDIUM confidence: 100% data completeness, but the composite (56) sits in the indecisive 30–70 range — strong-buy and short calls require a more decisive composite. What does confidence mean?
Technical context for active traders — derived from price, the 50/200-day moving averages, the 52-week range, and recent volume. Not part of the QScore.
AI classification of policy/regulatory sensitivity from the company's sector, industry, and business description. Exposure/sensitivity only — not a political opinion, a prediction of government action, or investment advice. As of 2026-07-10.
Fama-French 5-factor (2×3) + Momentum, monthly OLS with Newey-West errors. Bars show signed factor betas; faded bars/figures aren't statistically significant.
Dated events from the market calendar; the “also watch” items are AI-generated observations from QScoring data. Informational only — not investment advice, and dates can change.
Net buyback (repurchases less issuance) ÷ market cap, plus trailing dividend yield.
Avg target $74 (last qtr, 5 analysts) → $78 (last mo, 4) (+5.4%).
Buy-rated share 29% → 29% over ~3 months (+0pp).
| Quarter | Est. | Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 2026 | $1.51 | $1.52 | +0.7% |
| Jul 2026 | $1.50 | $1.48 | -1.3% |
| Apr 2026 | $1.24 | $1.32 | +6.5% |
| Jan 2026 | $1.32 | $1.30 | -1.5% |
| Oct 2025 | $1.44 | $1.45 | +0.7% |
| Jul 2025 | $1.39 | $1.44 | +3.6% |
| Apr 2025 | $1.19 | $1.23 | +3.4% |
| Jan 2025 | $1.28 | $1.29 | +0.8% |
| Metric (USD) | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $21.1B— | $20.7B-2.0% | $20.5B-0.9% | $20.4B-0.3% | $20.1B-1.5% |
| EPS (dil.) | $1.34— | $3.19+138.1% | $4.57+43.3% | $6.54+43.1% | $4.11-37.2% |
| Free Cash Flow | $8.2B— | $8.1B-2.2% | $9.1B+12.9% | $8.6B-5.3% | $9.1B+5.4% |
| Gross Margin | 66.3% | 68.9%+2.6pp | 69.7%+0.8pp | 70.3%+0.6pp | 72.2%+1.9pp |
| Operating Margin | 54.8% | 57.6%+2.9pp | 56.3%-1.3pp | 55.0%-1.3pp | 59.8%+4.8pp |
| Net Margin | 11.7% | 27.9%+16.1pp | 39.7%+11.8pp | 55.1%+15.4pp | 34.5%-20.6pp |
Absolute figures with year-over-year change. Margins show the level with the change in percentage points (pp). “n/m” = not meaningful (prior ≤ 0); ⚠ marks a large percentage off a small base — read the dollar figure.
Net insider -$462K over 180 days (1 open-market buys, 2 sells). Insider buying is the informative signal; routine selling is normal.
Short interest, days-to-cover, and institutional-ownership change require a data-plan upgrade (not yet available).
Forward-return IC, quintile spread & hit rate publish on /performance as the tracking panel accrues enough no-look-ahead history.
Working the DCF backward: holding the assumptions below, this is the free-cash-flow growth today's price implies over the next 10 years. It is a read on the price's embedded expectations — not a fair-value or target price.
The price implies FCF growth below the analyst consensus of 2.3%/yr (revenue basis).
Base free cash flow $8.9B (avg FY2023–FY2025; latest year $9.1B) · equity value $130.9B · levered FCF discounted at the cost of equity. Reverse DCF is illustrative, not advice.
The QScore of 56 for Altria Group indicates a moderate assessment, with the short-term score of 61 diverging from the long-term score of 52. The stock scores high on momentum and profitability, driven by its 26.7% return over the past year and strong operating margin of 57.9%. However, it trades at a lower value score of 37, partly due to its EV/EBITDA of 12.7, and exhibits weak growth with a -37.2% EPS growth rate.