MEDIUM confidence: 100% data completeness, but the composite (62) sits in the indecisive 30–70 range — strong-buy and short calls require a more decisive composite. What does confidence mean?
Technical context for active traders — derived from price, the 50/200-day moving averages, the 52-week range, and recent volume. Not part of the QScore.
Dated events from the market calendar; the “also watch” items are AI-generated observations from QScoring data. Informational only — not investment advice, and dates can change.
Fama-French 5-factor (2×3) + Momentum, monthly OLS with Newey-West errors. Bars show signed factor betas; faded bars/figures aren't statistically significant.
AI classification of policy/regulatory sensitivity from the company's sector, industry, and business description. Exposure/sensitivity only — not a political opinion, a prediction of government action, or investment advice. As of 2026-08-02.
Avg target $251 (last qtr, 14 analysts) → $287 (last mo, 3) (+14.4%).
Buy-rated share 64% → 68% over ~3 months (+4pp).
| Quarter | Est. | Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 2026 | $1.77 | $2.22 | +25.4% |
| Mar 2026 | $4.00 | $4.31 | +7.7% |
| Dec 2025 | $0.25 | $0.68 | +173.4% |
| Aug 2025 | $0.62 | $0.81 | +30.0% |
| Jun 2025 | $0.83 | $0.86 | +3.5% |
| Mar 2025 | $3.38 | $3.48 | +3.0% |
| Dec 2024 | $0.17 | $0.42 | +147.1% |
| Aug 2024 | $0.54 | $0.54 | +0.0% |
| Metric (USD) | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $2.8B— | $3.1B+8.0% | $3.6B+15.7% | $3.9B+8.9% | $4.8B+22.9% |
| EPS (dil.) | $4.95— | $4.69-5.3% | $5.41+15.4% | $4.60-15.0% | $6.46+40.4% |
| Free Cash Flow | $40M— | $63M+58.4% | $165M+161.3% | $107M-35.2% | $412M+286.0% |
| Gross Margin | 36.2% | 35.6%-0.6pp | 35.8%+0.2pp | 34.9%-0.9pp | 32.0%-2.9pp |
| Operating Margin | 13.3% | 11.2%-2.1pp | 10.8%-0.4pp | 8.4%-2.5pp | 9.6%+1.2pp |
| Net Margin | 9.8% | 8.5%-1.3pp | 8.5%-0.0pp | 6.5%-1.9pp | 7.5%+1.0pp |
Absolute figures with year-over-year change. Margins show the level with the change in percentage points (pp). “n/m” = not meaningful (prior ≤ 0); ⚠ marks a large percentage off a small base — read the dollar figure.
Net buyback (repurchases less issuance) ÷ market cap, plus trailing dividend yield.
Net insider -$7.6M over 180 days (1 open-market buys, 6 sells). Insider buying is the informative signal; routine selling is normal.
Short interest, days-to-cover, and institutional-ownership change require a data-plan upgrade (not yet available).
Forward-return IC, quintile spread & hit rate publish on /performance as the tracking panel accrues enough no-look-ahead history.
Working the DCF backward: holding the assumptions below, this is the free-cash-flow growth today's price implies over the next 10 years. It is a read on the price's embedded expectations — not a fair-value or target price.
The price implies FCF growth above the analyst consensus of 12.1%/yr (revenue basis).
Base free cash flow $228M (avg FY2023–FY2025; latest year $412M) · equity value $13.7B · levered FCF discounted at the cost of equity. Reverse DCF is illustrative, not advice.
The QScore of 62 for Five Below indicates a moderately positive outlook, driven by strong growth and momentum scores of 81 and 75, respectively, reflecting its robust revenue and earnings growth, as well as a 79.1% return over the past year. However, the stock's value score of 47 is a drawback, as it trades at a premium with a P/E of 31.1. The short-term score of 67 is notably higher than the long-term score of 58, suggesting a recent surge in momentum.