MEDIUM confidence: 100% data completeness, but the composite (58) sits in the indecisive 30–70 range — strong-buy and short calls require a more decisive composite. What does confidence mean?
Technical context for active traders — derived from price, the 50/200-day moving averages, the 52-week range, and recent volume. Not part of the QScore.
Fama-French 5-factor (2×3) + Momentum, monthly OLS with Newey-West errors. Bars show signed factor betas; faded bars/figures aren't statistically significant.
| Metric (USD) | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $13.9B— | $15.3B+9.7% | $12.0B-21.4% | $11.8B-1.8% | $13.2B+11.6% |
| EPS (dil.) | $2.65— | $2.25-15.1% | $2.23-0.9% | $13.00+483.0% | $3.30-74.6% |
| Free Cash Flow | $34M— | -$1.4B-4123.5% | $818Mn/m | -$369M-145.1% | $788Mn/m |
| Gross Margin | 14.6% | 11.5%-3.1pp | 14.3%+2.8pp | 15.6%+1.3pp | 14.9%-0.7pp |
| Operating Margin | 8.8% | 6.6%-2.2pp | 9.8%+3.2pp | 8.4%-1.4pp | 10.6%+2.2pp |
| Net Margin | 6.3% | 4.7%-1.6pp | 5.9%+1.2pp | 34.0%+28.1pp | 6.9%-27.0pp |
Absolute figures with year-over-year change. Margins show the level with the change in percentage points (pp). “n/m” = not meaningful (prior ≤ 0); ⚠ marks a large percentage off a small base — read the dollar figure.
Avg target $73 (last qtr, 1 analysts) → $0 (last mo, 0) (-100.0%).
Buy-rated share 63% → 81% over ~3 months (+19pp).
| Quarter | Est. | Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 2026 | $0.84 | $0.94 | +11.2% |
| Feb 2026 | $0.90 | $0.91 | +1.1% |
| Nov 2025 | $1.02 | $1.02 | +0.0% |
| Aug 2025 | $0.87 | $0.90 | +3.4% |
| May 2025 | $0.70 | $0.76 | +8.9% |
| Feb 2025 | $0.81 | $0.84 | +3.7% |
| Oct 2024 | $0.86 | $0.91 | +6.2% |
| Aug 2024 | $0.70 | $0.74 | +6.0% |
Net insider -$1.3M over 180 days (1 open-market buys, 2 sells). Insider buying is the informative signal; routine selling is normal.
Short interest, days-to-cover, and institutional-ownership change require a data-plan upgrade (not yet available).
Forward-return IC, quintile spread & hit rate publish on /performance as the tracking panel accrues enough no-look-ahead history.
Net buyback (repurchases less issuance) ÷ market cap, plus trailing dividend yield.
The QScore of 58 for Ball Corporation suggests a neutral outlook, driven by a mix of factors. The stock scores high on risk, with a beta of 1.0 and relatively low volatility, but its profitability score is dragged down by moderate return on equity of 17.3% and operating margin of 9.2%. In contrast, its growth score is boosted by strong revenue growth of 11.6% and impressive free cash flow growth of 313.6%, despite a decline in EPS. The long-term and short-term scores are closely aligned, indicating a consistent view of the stock's prospects.