MEDIUM confidence: 100% data completeness, but the composite (59) sits in the indecisive 30–70 range — strong-buy and short calls require a more decisive composite. What does confidence mean?
Technical context for active traders — derived from price, the 50/200-day moving averages, the 52-week range, and recent volume. Not part of the QScore.
AI classification of policy/regulatory sensitivity from the company's sector, industry, and business description. Exposure/sensitivity only — not a political opinion, a prediction of government action, or investment advice. As of 2026-07-10.
Fama-French 5-factor (2×3) + Momentum, monthly OLS with Newey-West errors. Bars show signed factor betas; faded bars/figures aren't statistically significant.
Dated events from the market calendar; the “also watch” items are AI-generated observations from QScoring data. Informational only — not investment advice, and dates can change.
| Metric (USD) | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $13.9B— | $15.3B+9.7% | $12.0B-21.4% | $11.8B-1.8% | $13.2B+11.6% |
| EPS (dil.) | $2.65— | $2.25-15.1% | $2.23-0.9% | $13.00+483.0% | $3.30-74.6% |
| Free Cash Flow | $34M— | -$1.4B-4123.5% | $818Mn/m | -$369M-145.1% | $788Mn/m |
| Gross Margin | 14.6% | 11.5%-3.1pp | 14.3%+2.8pp | 15.6%+1.3pp | 14.9%-0.7pp |
| Operating Margin | 8.8% | 6.6%-2.2pp | 9.8%+3.2pp | 8.4%-1.4pp | 10.6%+2.2pp |
| Net Margin | 6.3% | 4.7%-1.6pp | 5.9%+1.2pp | 34.0%+28.1pp | 6.9%-27.0pp |
Absolute figures with year-over-year change. Margins show the level with the change in percentage points (pp). “n/m” = not meaningful (prior ≤ 0); ⚠ marks a large percentage off a small base — read the dollar figure.
Fewer than 3 analysts refreshed a price target in the last month, so no revision can be computed. Prior quarter: $76 avg across 3 analysts.
Buy-rated share 76% → 80% over ~3 months (+4pp).
| Quarter | Est. | Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 2026 | $0.99 | $1.03 | +4.1% |
| May 2026 | $0.84 | $0.94 | +11.2% |
| Feb 2026 | $0.90 | $0.91 | +1.1% |
| Nov 2025 | $1.02 | $1.02 | +0.0% |
| Aug 2025 | $0.87 | $0.90 | +3.4% |
| May 2025 | $0.70 | $0.76 | +8.9% |
| Feb 2025 | $0.81 | $0.84 | +3.7% |
| Oct 2024 | $0.86 | $0.91 | +6.2% |
Net buyback (repurchases less issuance) ÷ market cap, plus trailing dividend yield.
Net insider -$610K over 180 days (1 open-market buys, 1 sells). Insider buying is the informative signal; routine selling is normal.
Short interest, days-to-cover, and institutional-ownership change require a data-plan upgrade (not yet available).
Forward-return IC, quintile spread & hit rate publish on /performance as the tracking panel accrues enough no-look-ahead history.
Working the DCF backward: holding the assumptions below, this is the free-cash-flow growth today's price implies over the next 10 years. It is a read on the price's embedded expectations — not a fair-value or target price.
The price implies FCF growth above the analyst consensus of 7.7%/yr (revenue basis).
Base free cash flow $412M (avg FY2023–FY2025; latest year $788M) · equity value $16.6B · levered FCF discounted at the cost of equity. Reverse DCF is illustrative, not advice.
The QScore of 59 for Ball Corporation suggests a moderately attractive stock, driven by its low risk profile and relatively stable valuation. The stock scores high on risk, with a beta of 1.0 and low volatility, but its value and growth scores are more neutral, reflecting a P/E of 17.6 and mixed growth metrics, including a notable decline in EPS growth. The short-term score is slightly higher than the long-term score, indicating some positive momentum, with a 12-month return of 16.4% and a bullish moving average trend.