MEDIUM confidence: 100% data completeness, but the composite (63) sits in the indecisive 30–70 range — strong-buy and short calls require a more decisive composite. What does confidence mean?
Technical context for active traders — derived from price, the 50/200-day moving averages, the 52-week range, and recent volume. Not part of the QScore.
Fama-French 5-factor (2×3) + Momentum, monthly OLS with Newey-West errors. Bars show signed factor betas; faded bars/figures aren't statistically significant.
AI classification of policy/regulatory sensitivity from the company's sector, industry, and business description. Exposure/sensitivity only — not a political opinion, a prediction of government action, or investment advice. As of 2026-07-10.
Dated events from the market calendar; the “also watch” items are AI-generated observations from QScoring data. Informational only — not investment advice, and dates can change.
| Metric (USD) | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $8.6B— | $11.7B+35.7% | $12.8B+10.0% | $13.7B+6.6% | $14.7B+7.6% |
| EPS (dil.) | $-1.80— | $2.18n/m | $5.31+143.6% | $8.95+68.5% | $9.81+9.6% |
| Free Cash Flow | $3.1B— | $2.8B-9.7% | $1.8B-33.6% | $2.3B+26.3% | $3.1B+33.5% |
| Gross Margin | 82.3% | 85.8%+3.5pp | 87.7%+2.0pp | 89.5%+1.7pp | 90.1%+0.7pp |
| Operating Margin | 2.2% | 9.3%+7.1pp | 8.0%-1.3pp | 9.6%+1.6pp | 14.7%+5.0pp |
| Net Margin | 0.1% | 3.0%+2.9pp | 6.2%+3.2pp | 9.0%+2.8pp | 8.8%-0.2pp |
Absolute figures with year-over-year change. Margins show the level with the change in percentage points (pp). “n/m” = not meaningful (prior ≤ 0); ⚠ marks a large percentage off a small base — read the dollar figure.
Avg target $325 (last qtr, 17 analysts) → $327 (last mo, 15) (+0.7%).
Buy-rated share 42% → 45% over ~3 months (+3pp).
| Quarter | Est. | Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 2026 | $5.22 | $5.76 | +10.3% |
| May 2026 | $1.41 | $1.96 | +39.0% |
| Feb 2026 | $3.35 | $3.78 | +12.8% |
| Nov 2025 | $6.97 | $7.57 | +8.6% |
| Aug 2025 | $3.97 | $4.24 | +6.8% |
| May 2025 | $0.35 | $0.40 | +13.6% |
| Feb 2025 | $2.06 | $1.84 | -10.7% |
| Nov 2024 | $6.07 | $6.13 | +1.0% |
Net insider -$1.3M over 180 days (0 open-market buys, 2 sells). Insider buying is the informative signal; routine selling is normal.
Short interest, days-to-cover, and institutional-ownership change require a data-plan upgrade (not yet available).
Forward-return IC, quintile spread & hit rate publish on /performance as the tracking panel accrues enough no-look-ahead history.
Net buyback (repurchases less issuance) ÷ market cap, plus trailing dividend yield.
Working the DCF backward: holding the assumptions below, this is the free-cash-flow growth today's price implies over the next 10 years. It is a read on the price's embedded expectations — not a fair-value or target price.
The price implies FCF growth below the analyst consensus of 6.5%/yr (revenue basis).
Base free cash flow $2.4B (avg FY2023–FY2025; latest year $3.1B) · equity value $37.0B · levered FCF discounted at the cost of equity. Reverse DCF is illustrative, not advice.
The QScore of 63 for Expedia Group indicates a moderately favorable outlook, driven by strong momentum and profitability scores of 79. The company exhibits strong momentum, with a 12-month return of 59.9% and a high ROE of 184.8%, while its growth score is more moderate at 53. The value score is a relative weakness at 44, reflecting a P/E of 19.4 and an EV/EBITDA of 9.2, indicating the stock trades at a premium. The short-term score is notably higher than the long-term score, at 66 versus 59.