MEDIUM confidence: 100% data completeness, but the composite (54) sits in the indecisive 30–70 range — strong-buy and short calls require a more decisive composite. What does confidence mean?
Technical context for active traders — derived from price, the 50/200-day moving averages, the 52-week range, and recent volume. Not part of the QScore.
Fama-French 5-factor (2×3) + Momentum, monthly OLS with Newey-West errors. Bars show signed factor betas; faded bars/figures aren't statistically significant.
Avg target $82 (last qtr, 4 analysts) → $95 (last mo, 1) (+15.9%).
Buy-rated share 8% → 9% over ~3 months (+1pp).
| Quarter | Est. | Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 2026 | $0.64 | $0.71 | +10.8% |
| Feb 2026 | $0.80 | $0.87 | +9.2% |
| Nov 2025 | $0.85 | $0.92 | +8.4% |
| Aug 2025 | $0.82 | $0.93 | +13.8% |
| May 2025 | $0.66 | $0.70 | +5.6% |
| Feb 2025 | $1.14 | $1.14 | +0.0% |
| Nov 2024 | $1.19 | $1.09 | -8.4% |
| Jul 2024 | $1.22 | $1.03 | -15.6% |
| Metric (USD) | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $85.2B— | $101.6B+19.1% | $93.9B-7.5% | $85.5B-8.9% | $80.3B-6.2% |
| EPS (dil.) | $4.79— | $7.71+61.0% | $6.43-16.6% | $3.65-43.2% | $2.23-38.9% |
| Free Cash Flow | $5.4B— | $2.2B-60.2% | $3.0B+37.4% | $1.2B-58.6% | $4.2B+242.6% |
| Gross Margin | 7.0% | 7.5%+0.4pp | 8.0%+0.5pp | 6.8%-1.2pp | 6.3%-0.5pp |
| Operating Margin | 3.5% | 4.1%+0.6pp | 4.3%+0.2pp | 2.4%-1.9pp | 1.8%-0.6pp |
| Net Margin | 3.2% | 4.3%+1.1pp | 3.7%-0.6pp | 2.1%-1.6pp | 1.3%-0.8pp |
Absolute figures with year-over-year change. Margins show the level with the change in percentage points (pp). “n/m” = not meaningful (prior ≤ 0); ⚠ marks a large percentage off a small base — read the dollar figure.
Net buyback (repurchases less issuance) ÷ market cap, plus trailing dividend yield.
Net insider -$9.6M over 180 days (1 open-market buys, 4 sells). Insider buying is the informative signal; routine selling is normal.
Short interest, days-to-cover, and institutional-ownership change require a data-plan upgrade (not yet available).
Forward-return IC, quintile spread & hit rate publish on /performance as the tracking panel accrues enough no-look-ahead history.
The QScore of 54 for ADM suggests a neutral outlook, driven by its strong momentum, with a 12-month return of 46.8% and a bullish 50-day versus 200-day moving average. The stock's value score is moderate, reflecting a P/E of 34.4, while its growth score is weighed down by negative revenue and EPS growth. Profitability scores are relatively low, with an ROE of 4.8%, although the company exhibits strong free cash flow growth of 242.6%. The long-term and short-term scores are relatively aligned, with only a 4-point difference.