MEDIUM confidence: 100% data completeness, but the composite (53) sits in the indecisive 30–70 range — strong-buy and short calls require a more decisive composite. What does confidence mean?
Technical context for active traders — derived from price, the 50/200-day moving averages, the 52-week range, and recent volume. Not part of the QScore.
Fama-French 5-factor (2×3) + Momentum, monthly OLS with Newey-West errors. Bars show signed factor betas; faded bars/figures aren't statistically significant.
Dated events from the market calendar; the “also watch” items are AI-generated observations from QScoring data. Informational only — not investment advice, and dates can change.
AI classification of policy/regulatory sensitivity from the company's sector, industry, and business description. Exposure/sensitivity only — not a political opinion, a prediction of government action, or investment advice. As of 2026-07-10.
| Metric (USD) | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $85.2B— | $101.6B+19.1% | $93.9B-7.5% | $85.5B-8.9% | $80.3B-6.2% |
| EPS (dil.) | $4.79— | $7.71+61.0% | $6.43-16.6% | $3.65-43.2% | $2.23-38.9% |
| Free Cash Flow | $5.4B— | $2.2B-60.2% | $3.0B+37.4% | $1.2B-58.6% | $4.2B+242.6% |
| Gross Margin | 7.0% | 7.5%+0.4pp | 8.0%+0.5pp | 6.8%-1.2pp | 6.3%-0.5pp |
| Operating Margin | 3.5% | 4.1%+0.6pp | 4.3%+0.2pp | 2.4%-1.9pp | 1.8%-0.6pp |
| Net Margin | 3.2% | 4.3%+1.1pp | 3.7%-0.6pp | 2.1%-1.6pp | 1.3%-0.8pp |
Absolute figures with year-over-year change. Margins show the level with the change in percentage points (pp). “n/m” = not meaningful (prior ≤ 0); ⚠ marks a large percentage off a small base — read the dollar figure.
Avg target $81 (last qtr, 4 analysts) → $76 (last mo, 3) (-5.8%).
Buy-rated share 9% → 9% over ~3 months (+0pp).
| Quarter | Est. | Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 2026 | $1.49 | $1.84 | +23.5% |
| May 2026 | $0.66 | $0.71 | +7.6% |
| Feb 2026 | $0.80 | $0.87 | +9.2% |
| Nov 2025 | $0.85 | $0.92 | +8.4% |
| Aug 2025 | $0.82 | $0.93 | +13.8% |
| May 2025 | $0.66 | $0.70 | +5.6% |
| Feb 2025 | $1.11 | $1.14 | +2.7% |
| Nov 2024 | $1.19 | $1.09 | -8.4% |
Net insider -$10.1M over 180 days (0 open-market buys, 4 sells). Insider buying is the informative signal; routine selling is normal.
Short interest, days-to-cover, and institutional-ownership change require a data-plan upgrade (not yet available).
Forward-return IC, quintile spread & hit rate publish on /performance as the tracking panel accrues enough no-look-ahead history.
Net buyback (repurchases less issuance) ÷ market cap, plus trailing dividend yield.
Working the DCF backward: holding the assumptions below, this is the free-cash-flow growth today's price implies over the next 10 years. It is a read on the price's embedded expectations — not a fair-value or target price.
The price implies FCF growth above the analyst consensus of -0.4%/yr (revenue basis).
Base free cash flow $2.8B (avg FY2023–FY2025; latest year $4.2B) · equity value $38.8B · levered FCF discounted at the cost of equity. Reverse DCF is illustrative, not advice.
The QScore of 53 for ADM suggests a neutral outlook, driven by its relatively strong value and momentum scores, which are offset by weaker profitability metrics. The stock's value score is supported by a P/E of 22.1 and EV/EBITDA of 8.8, while its momentum score is boosted by a 12-month return of 37.9%. In contrast, profitability scores are dragged down by a relatively low ROE of 7.7% and operating margin of 2.5%. The long-term and short-term scores are relatively aligned, with only a 2-point difference.