MEDIUM confidence: 100% data completeness, but the composite (55) sits in the indecisive 30–70 range — strong-buy and short calls require a more decisive composite. What does confidence mean?
Technical context for active traders — derived from price, the 50/200-day moving averages, the 52-week range, and recent volume. Not part of the QScore.
AI classification of policy/regulatory sensitivity from the company's sector, industry, and business description. Exposure/sensitivity only — not a political opinion, a prediction of government action, or investment advice. As of 2026-07-10.
Dated events from the market calendar; the “also watch” items are AI-generated observations from QScoring data. Informational only — not investment advice, and dates can change.
Fama-French 5-factor (2×3) + Momentum, monthly OLS with Newey-West errors. Bars show signed factor betas; faded bars/figures aren't statistically significant.
Net insider -$7.2M over 180 days (0 open-market buys, 8 sells). Insider buying is the informative signal; routine selling is normal.
Short interest, days-to-cover, and institutional-ownership change require a data-plan upgrade (not yet available).
Forward-return IC, quintile spread & hit rate publish on /performance as the tracking panel accrues enough no-look-ahead history.
| Metric (USD) | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $5.2B— | $5.4B+3.6% | $5.9B+9.2% | $6.1B+4.1% | $6.2B+1.6% |
| EPS (dil.) | $3.32— | $1.68-49.4% | $3.05+81.5% | $2.37-22.3% | $3.02+27.4% |
| Free Cash Flow | $875M— | $706M-19.3% | $807M+14.3% | $976M+21.0% | $1.1B+11.9% |
| Gross Margin | 43.6% | 41.9%-1.8pp | 44.1%+2.3pp | 45.7%+1.6pp | 44.7%-1.0pp |
| Operating Margin | 20.8% | 11.1%-9.7pp | 18.0%+6.9pp | 13.2%-4.8pp | 17.4%+4.2pp |
| Net Margin | 15.9% | 7.7%-8.2pp | 12.9%+5.2pp | 9.6%-3.3pp | 11.9%+2.3pp |
Absolute figures with year-over-year change. Margins show the level with the change in percentage points (pp). “n/m” = not meaningful (prior ≤ 0); ⚠ marks a large percentage off a small base — read the dollar figure.
Avg target $110 (last qtr, 6 analysts) → $109 (last mo, 5) (-0.3%).
Buy-rated share 45% → 48% over ~3 months (+2pp).
| Quarter | Est. | Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 2026 | $0.90 | $0.89 | -0.7% |
| May 2026 | $0.93 | $0.95 | +2.0% |
| Jan 2026 | $0.84 | $0.86 | +2.9% |
| Oct 2025 | $0.74 | $0.81 | +10.1% |
| Aug 2025 | $0.86 | $0.94 | +9.7% |
| May 2025 | $0.90 | $0.91 | +1.6% |
| Jan 2025 | $0.77 | $0.77 | +0.0% |
| Nov 2024 | $0.68 | $0.79 | +15.8% |
Net buyback (repurchases less issuance) ÷ market cap, plus trailing dividend yield.
Working the DCF backward: holding the assumptions below, this is the free-cash-flow growth today's price implies over the next 10 years. It is a read on the price's embedded expectations — not a fair-value or target price.
The price implies FCF growth above the analyst consensus of 3.9%/yr (revenue basis).
Base free cash flow $959M (avg FY2023–FY2025; latest year $1.1B) · equity value $24.2B · levered FCF discounted at the cost of equity. Reverse DCF is illustrative, not advice.
The QScore of 55 for CHD indicates a neutral outlook, driven by a mix of factors. The stock scores high on momentum, with a 12-month return of 10.9% and a bullish 50-day versus 200-day moving average, as well as on risk, with a low beta of 0.5. However, it trades at a premium, with a P/E of 32.8, which weighs on its value score. The long-term and short-term scores are relatively aligned, with the short-term score slightly higher at 59, suggesting a modest upward tilt in recent performance.