MEDIUM confidence: 100% data completeness, but the composite (49) sits in the indecisive 30–70 range — strong-buy and short calls require a more decisive composite. What does confidence mean?
Technical context for active traders — derived from price, the 50/200-day moving averages, the 52-week range, and recent volume. Not part of the QScore.
Fama-French 5-factor (2×3) + Momentum, monthly OLS with Newey-West errors. Bars show signed factor betas; faded bars/figures aren't statistically significant.
AI classification of policy/regulatory sensitivity from the company's sector, industry, and business description. Exposure/sensitivity only — not a political opinion, a prediction of government action, or investment advice. As of 2026-07-10.
Dated events from the market calendar; the “also watch” items are AI-generated observations from QScoring data. Informational only — not investment advice, and dates can change.
Net insider -$21.3M over 180 days (0 open-market buys, 38 sells). Insider buying is the informative signal; routine selling is normal.
Short interest, days-to-cover, and institutional-ownership change require a data-plan upgrade (not yet available).
Forward-return IC, quintile spread & hit rate publish on /performance as the tracking panel accrues enough no-look-ahead history.
Fewer than 3 analysts refreshed a price target in the last month, so no revision can be computed. Prior quarter: $162 avg across 14 analysts.
Buy-rated share 83% → 38% over ~3 months (-45pp).
| Quarter | Est. | Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 2026 | $0.60 | $1.08 | +78.5% |
| Apr 2026 | $0.33 | $0.57 | +72.6% |
| Feb 2026 | $0.28 | $0.53 | +89.3% |
| Oct 2025 | $0.07 | $0.16 | +128.6% |
| Jul 2025 | $-0.16 | $0.07 | +143.8% |
| May 2025 | $-0.27 | $-0.19 | +29.6% |
| Feb 2025 | $-0.41 | $-0.24 | +41.5% |
| Oct 2024 | $-0.32 | $-0.06 | +81.3% |
Working the DCF backward: holding the assumptions below, this is the free-cash-flow growth today's price implies over the next 10 years. It is a read on the price's embedded expectations — not a fair-value or target price.
The price implies FCF growth above the analyst consensus of 8.5%/yr (revenue basis).
Base free cash flow $288M (avg FY2023–FY2025; latest year $478M) · equity value $22.7B · levered FCF discounted at the cost of equity. Reverse DCF is illustrative, not advice.
Net buyback (repurchases less issuance) ÷ market cap, plus trailing dividend yield.
| Metric (USD) | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $2.8B— | $3.1B+13.1% | $3.5B+11.5% | $4.1B+18.0% | $4.7B+15.2% |
| EPS (dil.) | $1.71— | $-3.62-311.7% | $-5.01n/m | $-0.89n/m | $0.59n/m |
| Free Cash Flow | $188M— | -$150M-179.7% | $173Mn/m | $213M+22.9% | $478M+124.6% |
| Gross Margin | 51.0% | 46.1%-4.9pp | 43.7%-2.4pp | 43.9%+0.2pp | 43.8%-0.1pp |
| Operating Margin | 8.5% | -17.0%-25.5pp | -22.7%-5.8pp | -5.3%+17.4pp | -0.1%+5.2pp |
| Net Margin | 8.8% | -15.9%-24.7pp | -20.4%-4.4pp | -3.1%+17.2pp | 1.9%+5.0pp |
Absolute figures with year-over-year change. Margins show the level with the change in percentage points (pp). “n/m” = not meaningful (prior ≤ 0); ⚠ marks a large percentage off a small base — read the dollar figure.
The QScore of 49 for Roku indicates a neutral outlook, driven by a mix of strong growth and momentum scores, which are offset by lower value and risk scores. The stock scores high on growth, with revenue and EPS growth of 15.2% and 167.4%, respectively, and exhibits strong momentum, with a 12-month return of 81.8%. However, it trades at a premium, with a P/E of 63.8, and has a relatively low profitability score, with an ROE of 13.2%. The short-term score is slightly higher than the long-term score, at 53 versus 45.