MEDIUM confidence: 100% data completeness, but the composite (59) sits in the indecisive 30–70 range — strong-buy and short calls require a more decisive composite. What does confidence mean?
Technical context for active traders — derived from price, the 50/200-day moving averages, the 52-week range, and recent volume. Not part of the QScore.
Fama-French 5-factor (2×3) + Momentum, monthly OLS with Newey-West errors. Bars show signed factor betas; faded bars/figures aren't statistically significant.
Dated events from the market calendar; the “also watch” items are AI-generated observations from QScoring data. Informational only — not investment advice, and dates can change.
AI classification of policy/regulatory sensitivity from the company's sector, industry, and business description. Exposure/sensitivity only — not a political opinion, a prediction of government action, or investment advice. As of 2026-07-10.
| Metric (USD) | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $1.1B— | $1.1B+4.1% | $1.7B+46.9% | $2.8B+67.4% | $4.7B+68.9% |
| EPS (dil.) | $2.09— | $4.66+123.0% | $-0.43-109.2% | $0.05n/m | $2.26+4031.6% |
| Free Cash Flow | $430M— | $489M+13.8% | $172M-64.8% | $467M+171.0% | $1.2B+148.0% |
| Gross Margin | 40.7% | 66.2%+25.4pp | 59.4%-6.7pp | 53.9%-5.5pp | 49.6%-4.3pp |
| Operating Margin | 23.4% | 47.8%+24.4pp | 35.0%-12.8pp | 27.6%-7.4pp | 20.3%-7.3pp |
| Net Margin | 16.2% | 34.0%+17.8pp | -2.1%-36.1pp | 0.3%+2.4pp | 4.1%+3.8pp |
Absolute figures with year-over-year change. Margins show the level with the change in percentage points (pp). “n/m” = not meaningful (prior ≤ 0); ⚠ marks a large percentage off a small base — read the dollar figure.
Avg target $227 (last qtr, 5 analysts) → $227 (last mo, 5) (+0.0%).
Buy-rated share 77% → 82% over ~3 months (+5pp).
| Quarter | Est. | Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 2026 | $1.41 | $1.34 | -5.0% |
| May 2026 | $1.11 | $1.12 | +0.9% |
| Feb 2026 | $0.24 | $-0.08 | -133.7% |
| Nov 2025 | $0.59 | $0.50 | -14.7% |
| Aug 2025 | $1.16 | $1.17 | +0.9% |
| May 2025 | $0.61 | $0.69 | +13.3% |
| Feb 2025 | $0.16 | $0.35 | +118.7% |
| Nov 2024 | $0.52 | $0.53 | +2.5% |
Net insider -$8.7M over 180 days (8 open-market buys, 43 sells). Insider buying is the informative signal; routine selling is normal.
Short interest, days-to-cover, and institutional-ownership change require a data-plan upgrade (not yet available).
Forward-return IC, quintile spread & hit rate publish on /performance as the tracking panel accrues enough no-look-ahead history.
Net buyback (repurchases less issuance) ÷ market cap, plus trailing dividend yield.
Working the DCF backward: holding the assumptions below, this is the free-cash-flow growth today's price implies over the next 10 years. It is a read on the price's embedded expectations — not a fair-value or target price.
The price implies FCF growth above the analyst consensus of 7.2%/yr (revenue basis).
Base free cash flow $599M (avg FY2023–FY2025; latest year $1.2B) · equity value $14.7B · levered FCF discounted at the cost of equity. Reverse DCF is illustrative, not advice.
The QScore of 59 indicates a neutral outlook for TKO Group Holdings, with the stock's strong growth prospects offset by its rich valuation. The company scores high on growth, driven by impressive revenue and earnings growth rates of 68.9% and 1916.7%, respectively. However, it trades at a premium, with a P/E of 65.1, which weighs on its value score. The stock exhibits strong momentum over the short term, but its profitability metrics, such as an ROE of 6.4%, are relatively modest.