MEDIUM confidence: 100% data completeness, but the composite (56) sits in the indecisive 30–70 range — strong-buy and short calls require a more decisive composite. What does confidence mean?
Technical context for active traders — derived from price, the 50/200-day moving averages, the 52-week range, and recent volume. Not part of the QScore.
AI classification of policy/regulatory sensitivity from the company's sector, industry, and business description. Exposure/sensitivity only — not a political opinion, a prediction of government action, or investment advice. As of 2026-07-12.
Fama-French 5-factor (2×3) + Momentum, monthly OLS with Newey-West errors. Bars show signed factor betas; faded bars/figures aren't statistically significant.
Dated events from the market calendar; the “also watch” items are AI-generated observations from QScoring data. Informational only — not investment advice, and dates can change.
Avg target $32 (last qtr, 6 analysts) → $32 (last mo, 6) (+0.0%).
Buy-rated share 29% → 29% over ~3 months (+0pp).
| Quarter | Est. | Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 2026 | $0.78 | $0.70 | -10.4% |
| Apr 2026 | $0.70 | $0.72 | +2.9% |
| Feb 2026 | $0.77 | $0.84 | +9.1% |
| Oct 2025 | $0.78 | $0.84 | +7.1% |
| Jul 2025 | $0.79 | $0.57 | -27.8% |
| May 2025 | $0.70 | $0.59 | -15.7% |
| Jan 2025 | $0.64 | $0.83 | +29.7% |
| Oct 2024 | $0.75 | $-0.84 | -212.0% |
| Metric (USD) | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $8.7B— | $9.0B+3.5% | $9.0B-0.6% | $8.7B-2.8% | $8.6B-1.6% |
| EPS (dil.) | $3.20— | $3.10-3.1% | $3.24+4.5% | $-4.93-252.2% | $2.25n/m |
| Free Cash Flow | $1.6B— | $1.6B-3.7% | $1.2B-23.9% | $1.0B-14.1% | $1.2B+22.9% |
| Gross Margin | 50.6% | 50.2%-0.4pp | 49.0%-1.2pp | 48.3%-0.7pp | 47.0%-1.2pp |
| Operating Margin | 23.2% | 22.6%-0.6pp | 21.7%-0.9pp | -17.4%-39.2pp | 17.2%+34.6pp |
| Net Margin | 15.1% | 13.5%-1.6pp | 14.1%+0.6pp | -19.1%-33.2pp | 9.4%+28.5pp |
Absolute figures with year-over-year change. Margins show the level with the change in percentage points (pp). “n/m” = not meaningful (prior ≤ 0); ⚠ marks a large percentage off a small base — read the dollar figure.
No recent open-market insider transactions.
Short interest, days-to-cover, and institutional-ownership change require a data-plan upgrade (not yet available).
Forward-return IC, quintile spread & hit rate publish on /performance as the tracking panel accrues enough no-look-ahead history.
Net buyback (repurchases less issuance) ÷ market cap, plus trailing dividend yield.
Working the DCF backward: holding the assumptions below, this is the free-cash-flow growth today's price implies over the next 10 years. It is a read on the price's embedded expectations — not a fair-value or target price.
The price implies FCF growth below the analyst consensus of 4.1%/yr (revenue basis).
Base free cash flow $1.1B (avg FY2023–FY2025; latest year $1.2B) · equity value $9.7B · levered FCF discounted at the cost of equity. Reverse DCF is illustrative, not advice.
The QScore of 56 indicates a neutral assessment of SIRI, driven by a mix of factors. The stock scores relatively high on risk, with a low beta and moderate volatility, but its value and profitability scores are more mediocre, reflecting a P/E of 11.0 and ROE near 7.5%. Momentum is a slight positive, with the stock exhibiting strong 12-month returns of 36.0%, while growth is a relative weakness, despite high EPS growth, due to negative revenue growth. The long-term and short-term scores are closely aligned, suggesting a consistent outlook.