MEDIUM confidence: 100% data completeness, but the composite (52) sits in the indecisive 30–70 range — strong-buy and short calls require a more decisive composite. What does confidence mean?
Technical context for active traders — derived from price, the 50/200-day moving averages, the 52-week range, and recent volume. Not part of the QScore.
Dated events from the market calendar; the “also watch” items are AI-generated observations from QScoring data. Informational only — not investment advice, and dates can change.
AI classification of policy/regulatory sensitivity from the company's sector, industry, and business description. Exposure/sensitivity only — not a political opinion, a prediction of government action, or investment advice. As of 2026-07-10.
Fama-French 5-factor (2×3) + Momentum, monthly OLS with Newey-West errors. Bars show signed factor betas; faded bars/figures aren't statistically significant.
Avg target $210 (last qtr, 8 analysts) → $216 (last mo, 6) (+3.0%).
Buy-rated share 69% → 75% over ~3 months (+6pp).
| Quarter | Est. | Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 2026 | $2.05 | $2.20 | +7.3% |
| Apr 2026 | $1.86 | $1.96 | +5.4% |
| Feb 2026 | $1.70 | $1.70 | +0.0% |
| Oct 2025 | $2.09 | $2.24 | +7.2% |
| Jul 2025 | $1.86 | $1.91 | +2.7% |
| Apr 2025 | $1.61 | $1.69 | +5.0% |
| Feb 2025 | $1.49 | $1.55 | +4.0% |
| Oct 2024 | $1.82 | $1.91 | +4.9% |
| Metric (USD) | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $31.4B— | $31.8B+1.1% | $35.2B+10.7% | $37.9B+7.7% | $40.6B+7.3% |
| EPS (dil.) | $5.83— | $5.81-0.3% | $5.02-13.6% | $4.52-10.0% | $7.26+60.6% |
| Free Cash Flow | $11.2B— | $9.7B-13.3% | $7.9B-18.9% | $10.8B+36.7% | $10.7B-1.0% |
| Gross Margin | 68.1% | 64.1%-4.0pp | 63.3%-0.8pp | 64.8%+1.5pp | 67.1%+2.3pp |
| Operating Margin | 41.3% | 38.6%-2.8pp | 32.9%-5.7pp | 35.4%+2.5pp | 36.7%+1.4pp |
| Net Margin | 29.0% | 28.5%-0.5pp | 22.1%-6.3pp | 18.6%-3.6pp | 27.9%+9.3pp |
Absolute figures with year-over-year change. Margins show the level with the change in percentage points (pp). “n/m” = not meaningful (prior ≤ 0); ⚠ marks a large percentage off a small base — read the dollar figure.
Net buyback (repurchases less issuance) ÷ market cap, plus trailing dividend yield.
Net insider -$28.8M over 180 days (0 open-market buys, 7 sells). Insider buying is the informative signal; routine selling is normal.
Short interest, days-to-cover, and institutional-ownership change require a data-plan upgrade (not yet available).
Forward-return IC, quintile spread & hit rate publish on /performance as the tracking panel accrues enough no-look-ahead history.
Working the DCF backward: holding the assumptions below, this is the free-cash-flow growth today's price implies over the next 10 years. It is a read on the price's embedded expectations — not a fair-value or target price.
The price implies FCF growth above the analyst consensus of 5.7%/yr (revenue basis).
Base free cash flow $9.8B (avg FY2023–FY2025; latest year $10.7B) · equity value $297.2B · levered FCF discounted at the cost of equity. Reverse DCF is illustrative, not advice.
The QScore of 52 indicates a neutral outlook for Philip Morris International, driven by strong growth and profitability scores, which are offset by a low value score. The stock scores high on growth, with revenue and EPS growth of 7.3% and 60.5%, respectively, and exhibits strong profitability, with a gross margin of 67.5% and an operating margin of 37.7%. However, it trades at a premium, with a P/E of 27.4, contributing to its low value score. The short-term score is slightly higher than the long-term score, but the divergence is relatively minor.