MEDIUM confidence: 100% data completeness, but the composite (47) sits in the indecisive 30–70 range — strong-buy and short calls require a more decisive composite. What does confidence mean?
Technical context for active traders — derived from price, the 50/200-day moving averages, the 52-week range, and recent volume. Not part of the QScore.
AI classification of policy/regulatory sensitivity from the company's sector, industry, and business description. Exposure/sensitivity only — not a political opinion, a prediction of government action, or investment advice. As of 2026-07-10.
Fama-French 5-factor (2×3) + Momentum, monthly OLS with Newey-West errors. Bars show signed factor betas; faded bars/figures aren't statistically significant.
Dated events from the market calendar; the “also watch” items are AI-generated observations from QScoring data. Informational only — not investment advice, and dates can change.
Net insider -$14.3M over 180 days (0 open-market buys, 13 sells). Insider buying is the informative signal; routine selling is normal.
Short interest, days-to-cover, and institutional-ownership change require a data-plan upgrade (not yet available).
Forward-return IC, quintile spread & hit rate publish on /performance as the tracking panel accrues enough no-look-ahead history.
Avg target $87 (last qtr, 31 analysts) → $87 (last mo, 28) (-0.1%).
Buy-rated share 71% → 66% over ~3 months (-5pp).
| Quarter | Est. | Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 2026 | $0.82 | $0.87 | +6.1% |
| Jul 2026 | $0.79 | $0.80 | +1.8% |
| Apr 2026 | $0.76 | $1.23 | +61.2% |
| Jan 2026 | $0.55 | $0.56 | +1.4% |
| Oct 2025 | $0.70 | $0.59 | -15.2% |
| Jul 2025 | $0.71 | $0.72 | +1.4% |
| Apr 2025 | $0.57 | $0.66 | +15.8% |
| Jan 2025 | $0.42 | $0.43 | +2.4% |
Net buyback (repurchases less issuance) ÷ market cap, plus trailing dividend yield.
| Metric (USD) | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $29.7B— | $31.6B+6.5% | $33.7B+6.7% | $39.0B+15.6% | $45.2B+15.9% |
| EPS (dil.) | $1.12— | $1.00-10.7% | $1.20+20.0% | $1.98+65.0% | $2.53+27.8% |
| Free Cash Flow | -$132M— | $1.6Bn/m | $6.9B+327.9% | $6.9B-0.1% | $9.5B+36.7% |
| Gross Margin | 41.6% | 39.4%-2.3pp | 41.5%+2.2pp | 46.1%+4.5pp | 48.5%+2.4pp |
| Operating Margin | 20.9% | 17.8%-3.0pp | 20.6%+2.8pp | 26.7%+6.1pp | 29.5%+2.8pp |
| Net Margin | 17.2% | 14.2%-3.0pp | 16.0%+1.8pp | 22.3%+6.3pp | 24.3%+2.0pp |
Absolute figures with year-over-year change. Margins show the level with the change in percentage points (pp). “n/m” = not meaningful (prior ≤ 0); ⚠ marks a large percentage off a small base — read the dollar figure.
Working the DCF backward: holding the assumptions below, this is the free-cash-flow growth today's price implies over the next 10 years. It is a read on the price's embedded expectations — not a fair-value or target price.
The price implies FCF growth above the analyst consensus of 9.2%/yr (revenue basis).
Base free cash flow $7.8B (avg FY2023–FY2025; latest year $9.5B) · equity value $258.2B · levered FCF discounted at the cost of equity. Reverse DCF is illustrative, not advice.
The QScore of 47 for Netflix indicates a neutral outlook, driven by strong profitability scores, with an ROE near 50%, but offset by weak momentum, with a 12-month return of -43.6% and a bearish 50-day versus 200-day moving average. The stock's value score is moderate, with a P/E of 17.6, while growth scores are relatively strong, driven by revenue and EPS growth of 15.9% and 27.1%, respectively. The long-term score is slightly higher than the short-term score, suggesting some divergence in the stock's outlook over different time horizons. Overall, Netflix exhibits strong profitability but trades at a premium and exhibits weak recent price action.