MEDIUM confidence: 100% data completeness, but the composite (51) sits in the indecisive 30–70 range — strong-buy and short calls require a more decisive composite. What does confidence mean?
Technical context for active traders — derived from price, the 50/200-day moving averages, the 52-week range, and recent volume. Not part of the QScore.
Net buyback (repurchases less issuance) ÷ market cap, plus trailing dividend yield.
Net insider -$13.0M over 180 days (0 open-market buys, 54 sells). Insider buying is the informative signal; routine selling is normal.
Short interest, days-to-cover, and institutional-ownership change require a data-plan upgrade (not yet available).
Forward-return IC, quintile spread & hit rate publish on /performance as the tracking panel accrues enough no-look-ahead history.
Avg target $717 (last qtr, 12 analysts) → $716 (last mo, 11) (-0.2%).
Buy-rated share 90% → 89% over ~3 months (-1pp).
| Quarter | Est. | Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 2026 | $7.19 | $6.18 | -14.0% |
| Apr 2026 | $6.70 | $10.44 | +55.8% |
| Jan 2026 | $8.19 | $8.88 | +8.4% |
| Oct 2025 | $6.72 | $7.25 | +7.9% |
| Jul 2025 | $5.88 | $7.14 | +21.4% |
| Apr 2025 | $5.23 | $6.43 | +22.9% |
| Jan 2025 | $6.75 | $8.02 | +18.8% |
| Oct 2024 | $5.25 | $6.03 | +14.9% |
| Metric (USD) | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $117.9B— | $116.6B-1.1% | $134.9B+15.7% | $164.5B+21.9% | $201.0B+22.2% |
| EPS (dil.) | $13.77— | $8.59-37.6% | $14.87+73.1% | $23.86+60.5% | $23.49-1.6% |
| Free Cash Flow | $39.1B— | $19.0B-51.3% | $43.8B+130.2% | $54.1B+23.3% | $46.1B-14.7% |
| Gross Margin | 80.8% | 78.3%-2.4pp | 80.8%+2.4pp | 81.7%+0.9pp | 82.0%+0.3pp |
| Operating Margin | 39.6% | 24.8%-14.8pp | 34.7%+9.8pp | 42.2%+7.5pp | 41.4%-0.7pp |
| Net Margin | 33.4% | 19.9%-13.5pp | 29.0%+9.1pp | 37.9%+8.9pp | 30.1%-7.8pp |
Absolute figures with year-over-year change. Margins show the level with the change in percentage points (pp). “n/m” = not meaningful (prior ≤ 0); ⚠ marks a large percentage off a small base — read the dollar figure.
AI classification of policy/regulatory sensitivity from the company's sector, industry, and business description. Exposure/sensitivity only — not a political opinion, a prediction of government action, or investment advice. As of 2026-07-10.
Fama-French 5-factor (2×3) + Momentum, monthly OLS with Newey-West errors. Bars show signed factor betas; faded bars/figures aren't statistically significant.
Dated events from the market calendar; the “also watch” items are AI-generated observations from QScoring data. Informational only — not investment advice, and dates can change.
Working the DCF backward: holding the assumptions below, this is the free-cash-flow growth today's price implies over the next 10 years. It is a read on the price's embedded expectations — not a fair-value or target price.
The price implies FCF growth below the analyst consensus of 16.5%/yr (revenue basis).
Base free cash flow $48.0B (avg FY2023–FY2025; latest year $46.1B) · equity value $1.47T · levered FCF discounted at the cost of equity. Reverse DCF is illustrative, not advice.
The QScore of 51 indicates a neutral outlook for META, with the long-term score slightly exceeding the short-term score. META scores high on profitability, driven by its strong ROE and operating margin, but is dragged down by its momentum, which exhibits a bearish trend with a 12-month return of -24.4%. The stock's value is also a mixed bag, trading at a P/E of 21.5 and a P/B of 5.6, while its growth is hindered by declining EPS and FCF growth.