MEDIUM confidence: 100% data completeness, but the composite (51) sits in the indecisive 30–70 range — strong-buy and short calls require a more decisive composite. What does confidence mean?
Technical context for active traders — derived from price, the 50/200-day moving averages, the 52-week range, and recent volume. Not part of the QScore.
AI classification of policy/regulatory sensitivity from the company's sector, industry, and business description. Exposure/sensitivity only — not a political opinion, a prediction of government action, or investment advice. As of 2026-07-10.
Fama-French 5-factor (2×3) + Momentum, monthly OLS with Newey-West errors. Bars show signed factor betas; faded bars/figures aren't statistically significant.
Dated events from the market calendar; the “also watch” items are AI-generated observations from QScoring data. Informational only — not investment advice, and dates can change.
Avg target $109 (last qtr, 20 analysts) → $118 (last mo, 7) (+8.0%).
Buy-rated share 46% → 50% over ~3 months (+4pp).
| Quarter | Est. | Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 2026 | $0.32 | $0.39 | +22.2% |
| May 2026 | $0.65 | $0.91 | +40.4% |
| Feb 2026 | $0.83 | $0.89 | +6.6% |
| Oct 2025 | $0.18 | $0.32 | +82.1% |
| Aug 2025 | $0.09 | $0.09 | +4.3% |
| May 2025 | $0.31 | $0.65 | +107.9% |
| Feb 2025 | $0.31 | $0.62 | +100.0% |
| Oct 2024 | $0.09 | $0.14 | +57.9% |
| Metric (USD) | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | FY2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $17.7B— | $15.9B-10.3% | $15.6B-1.9% | $14.3B-8.2% | $15.0B+5.0% |
| EPS (dil.) | $6.55— | $2.79-57.4% | $1.08-61.3% | $-3.15-391.7% | $0.50n/m |
| Free Cash Flow | $2.0B— | -$1.6B-177.9% | $1.4Bn/m | $670M-53.5% | $1.3B+96.4% |
| Gross Margin | 75.7% | 71.3%-4.4pp | 71.7%+0.3pp | 74.0%+2.3pp | 75.5%+1.5pp |
| Operating Margin | 17.9% | 9.5%-8.4pp | 6.2%-3.3pp | 8.0%+1.7pp | 11.1%+3.2pp |
| Net Margin | 13.5% | 6.3%-7.2pp | 2.5%-3.8pp | -7.9%-10.4pp | 1.2%+9.1pp |
Absolute figures with year-over-year change. Margins show the level with the change in percentage points (pp). “n/m” = not meaningful (prior ≤ 0); ⚠ marks a large percentage off a small base — read the dollar figure.
Working the DCF backward: holding the assumptions below, this is the free-cash-flow growth today's price implies over the next 10 years. It is a read on the price's embedded expectations — not a fair-value or target price.
The price implies FCF growth above the analyst consensus of 3.1%/yr (revenue basis).
Base free cash flow $1.1B (avg FY2024–FY2026; latest year $1.3B) · equity value $39.4B · levered FCF discounted at the cost of equity. Reverse DCF is illustrative, not advice.
Net buyback (repurchases less issuance) ÷ market cap, plus trailing dividend yield.
Net insider -$11.8M over 180 days (0 open-market buys, 7 sells). Insider buying is the informative signal; routine selling is normal.
Short interest, days-to-cover, and institutional-ownership change require a data-plan upgrade (not yet available).
Forward-return IC, quintile spread & hit rate publish on /performance as the tracking panel accrues enough no-look-ahead history.
The QScore of 51 for Estée Lauder Companies indicates a neutral outlook, driven by strong growth and momentum scores, which are offset by lower value and risk scores. The stock's high P/E of 213.3 and P/B of 10.4 contribute to its low value score of 26, while its revenue growth of 5.0% and EPS growth of 115.9% drive its high growth score of 74. Notably, the short-term score of 58 diverges from the long-term score of 45, suggesting recent momentum, with a 12-month return of 12.0% and a 3-month return of 28.8%.