MEDIUM confidence: 100% data completeness, but the composite (55) sits in the indecisive 30–70 range — strong-buy and short calls require a more decisive composite. What does confidence mean?
Technical context for active traders — derived from price, the 50/200-day moving averages, the 52-week range, and recent volume. Not part of the QScore.
Dated events from the market calendar; the “also watch” items are AI-generated observations from QScoring data. Informational only — not investment advice, and dates can change.
AI classification of policy/regulatory sensitivity from the company's sector, industry, and business description. Exposure/sensitivity only — not a political opinion, a prediction of government action, or investment advice. As of 2026-07-10.
Fama-French 5-factor (2×3) + Momentum, monthly OLS with Newey-West errors. Bars show signed factor betas; faded bars/figures aren't statistically significant.
Fewer than 3 analysts refreshed a price target in the last month, so no revision can be computed. Prior quarter: $119 avg across 4 analysts.
Buy-rated share 90% → 88% over ~3 months (-2pp).
| Quarter | Est. | Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 2026 | $1.86 | $2.06 | +10.8% |
| May 2026 | $1.49 | $1.57 | +5.4% |
| Feb 2026 | $1.57 | $1.63 | +3.8% |
| Nov 2025 | $1.05 | $1.11 | +5.7% |
| Aug 2025 | $1.45 | $1.61 | +11.0% |
| May 2025 | $1.19 | $1.45 | +21.8% |
| Feb 2025 | $1.45 | $1.76 | +21.4% |
| Nov 2024 | $1.11 | $1.14 | +2.7% |
Net buyback (repurchases less issuance) ÷ market cap, plus trailing dividend yield.
| Metric (USD) | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $67.4B— | $82.7B+22.7% | $88.9B+7.5% | $91.4B+2.8% | $94.4B+3.4% |
| EPS (dil.) | $1.09— | $1.72+57.8% | $1.29-25.0% | $2.72+110.9% | $6.85+151.8% |
| Free Cash Flow | $2.0B— | $1.1B-46.4% | $4.9B+359.0% | $8.6B+74.8% | $10.1B+17.7% |
| Gross Margin | 33.1% | 34.2%+1.2pp | 33.4%-0.8pp | 35.8%+2.3pp | 37.8%+2.0pp |
| Operating Margin | 5.4% | 8.2%+2.8pp | 10.1%+1.9pp | 13.0%+2.9pp | 14.6%+1.6pp |
| Net Margin | 3.0% | 3.8%+0.8pp | 2.6%-1.2pp | 5.4%+2.8pp | 13.1%+7.7pp |
Absolute figures with year-over-year change. Margins show the level with the change in percentage points (pp). “n/m” = not meaningful (prior ≤ 0); ⚠ marks a large percentage off a small base — read the dollar figure.
Working the DCF backward: holding the assumptions below, this is the free-cash-flow growth today's price implies over the next 10 years. It is a read on the price's embedded expectations — not a fair-value or target price.
The price implies FCF growth above the analyst consensus of 4.5%/yr (revenue basis).
Base free cash flow $7.8B (avg FY2023–FY2025; latest year $10.1B) · equity value $191.5B · levered FCF discounted at the cost of equity. Reverse DCF is illustrative, not advice.
Net insider -$2.2M over 180 days (0 open-market buys, 5 sells). Insider buying is the informative signal; routine selling is normal.
Short interest, days-to-cover, and institutional-ownership change require a data-plan upgrade (not yet available).
Forward-return IC, quintile spread & hit rate publish on /performance as the tracking panel accrues enough no-look-ahead history.
The QScore of 55 for Disney indicates a neutral outlook, with the stock's short-term score slightly outpacing its long-term score. Disney scores high on momentum, driven by its recent 13% return over the past three months, but is held back by lower scores in growth and profitability, where its ROE of 7.9% and revenue growth of 3.4% are notable. The stock trades at a P/E of 22.8, which is relatively in line with peers, and exhibits strong price momentum, with a bullish 50-day versus 200-day moving average crossover.