MEDIUM confidence: 100% data completeness, but the composite (49) sits in the indecisive 30–70 range — strong-buy and short calls require a more decisive composite. What does confidence mean?
Technical context for active traders — derived from price, the 50/200-day moving averages, the 52-week range, and recent volume. Not part of the QScore.
Fama-French 5-factor (2×3) + Momentum, monthly OLS with Newey-West errors. Bars show signed factor betas; faded bars/figures aren't statistically significant.
Net insider -$183K over 180 days (1 open-market buys, 1 sells). Insider buying is the informative signal; routine selling is normal.
Short interest, days-to-cover, and institutional-ownership change require a data-plan upgrade (not yet available).
Forward-return IC, quintile spread & hit rate publish on /performance as the tracking panel accrues enough no-look-ahead history.
Net buyback (repurchases less issuance) ÷ market cap, plus trailing dividend yield.
Avg target $143 (last qtr, 3 analysts) → $0 (last mo, 0) (-100.0%).
Buy-rated share 84% → 90% over ~3 months (+6pp).
| Quarter | Est. | Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 2026 | $1.49 | $1.57 | +5.4% |
| Feb 2026 | $1.57 | $1.63 | +3.8% |
| Nov 2025 | $1.05 | $1.11 | +5.7% |
| Aug 2025 | $1.45 | $1.61 | +11.0% |
| May 2025 | $1.19 | $1.45 | +21.8% |
| Feb 2025 | $1.45 | $1.76 | +21.4% |
| Nov 2024 | $1.11 | $1.14 | +2.7% |
| Aug 2024 | $1.19 | $1.39 | +16.8% |
| Metric (USD) | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $67.4B— | $82.7B+22.7% | $88.9B+7.5% | $91.4B+2.8% | $94.4B+3.4% |
| EPS (dil.) | $1.09— | $1.72+57.8% | $1.29-25.0% | $2.72+110.9% | $6.85+151.8% |
| Free Cash Flow | $2.0B— | $1.1B-46.4% | $4.9B+359.0% | $8.6B+74.8% | $10.1B+17.7% |
| Gross Margin | 33.1% | 34.2%+1.2pp | 33.4%-0.8pp | 35.8%+2.3pp | 37.8%+2.0pp |
| Operating Margin | 5.4% | 8.2%+2.8pp | 10.1%+1.9pp | 13.0%+2.9pp | 14.6%+1.6pp |
| Net Margin | 3.0% | 3.8%+0.8pp | 2.6%-1.2pp | 5.4%+2.8pp | 13.1%+7.7pp |
Absolute figures with year-over-year change. Margins show the level with the change in percentage points (pp). “n/m” = not meaningful (prior ≤ 0); ⚠ marks a large percentage off a small base — read the dollar figure.
The QScore of 49 for Disney indicates a neutral outlook, driven by a mix of factors. The stock scores relatively high on value, with a P/E of 15.8 and P/B of 1.6, but is dragged down by momentum, which exhibits a bearish 50-day versus 200-day moving average and a 12-month return of -17.3%. Profitability and growth scores are also middling, with ROE near 10% and revenue growth of 3.4%, while the risk score is relatively high due to a beta of 1.4 and notable volatility. The long-term and short-term scores are closely aligned, suggesting a consistent view across different time horizons.