MEDIUM confidence: 100% data completeness, but the composite (50) sits in the indecisive 30–70 range — strong-buy and short calls require a more decisive composite. What does confidence mean?
Technical context for active traders — derived from price, the 50/200-day moving averages, the 52-week range, and recent volume. Not part of the QScore.
Dated events from the market calendar; the “also watch” items are AI-generated observations from QScoring data. Informational only — not investment advice, and dates can change.
AI classification of policy/regulatory sensitivity from the company's sector, industry, and business description. Exposure/sensitivity only — not a political opinion, a prediction of government action, or investment advice. As of 2026-07-10.
Low explanatory power (R² 0.08) — the factor model explains little of this stock's return variation, so these exposures are noisy. Interpret with caution.
Fama-French 5-factor (2×3) + Momentum, monthly OLS with Newey-West errors. Bars show signed factor betas; faded bars/figures aren't statistically significant.
Fewer than 3 analysts refreshed a price target in the last month, so no revision can be computed. Prior quarter: $128 avg across 13 analysts.
Buy-rated share 44% → 35% over ~3 months (-8pp).
| Quarter | Est. | Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 2026 | $1.89 | $2.00 | +5.8% |
| Mar 2026 | $1.66 | $1.93 | +16.3% |
| Dec 2025 | $0.94 | $1.28 | +35.4% |
| Aug 2025 | $1.58 | $1.86 | +17.7% |
| Jun 2025 | $1.48 | $1.78 | +20.3% |
| Mar 2025 | $1.51 | $1.68 | +11.3% |
| Dec 2024 | $0.94 | $0.89 | -5.3% |
| Aug 2024 | $1.79 | $1.70 | -5.0% |
| Metric (USD) | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $34.2B— | $37.8B+10.6% | $38.7B+2.2% | $40.6B+5.0% | $42.7B+5.2% |
| EPS (dil.) | $10.17— | $10.68+5.0% | $7.55-29.3% | $5.11-32.3% | $6.85+34.1% |
| Free Cash Flow | $1.8B— | $424M-76.4% | $692M+63.1% | $1.7B+143.8% | $2.4B+41.9% |
| Gross Margin | 31.6% | 31.2%-0.4pp | 30.3%-0.9pp | 29.6%-0.7pp | 30.7%+1.1pp |
| Operating Margin | 9.4% | 8.8%-0.6pp | 6.3%-2.5pp | 4.2%-2.1pp | 5.2%+0.9pp |
| Net Margin | 7.0% | 6.4%-0.6pp | 4.3%-2.1pp | 2.8%-1.5pp | 3.5%+0.8pp |
Absolute figures with year-over-year change. Margins show the level with the change in percentage points (pp). “n/m” = not meaningful (prior ≤ 0); ⚠ marks a large percentage off a small base — read the dollar figure.
Net buyback (repurchases less issuance) ÷ market cap, plus trailing dividend yield.
No recent open-market insider transactions.
Short interest, days-to-cover, and institutional-ownership change require a data-plan upgrade (not yet available).
Forward-return IC, quintile spread & hit rate publish on /performance as the tracking panel accrues enough no-look-ahead history.
Working the DCF backward: holding the assumptions below, this is the free-cash-flow growth today's price implies over the next 10 years. It is a read on the price's embedded expectations — not a fair-value or target price.
The price implies FCF growth below the analyst consensus of 4.0%/yr (revenue basis).
Base free cash flow $1.6B (avg FY2023–FY2025; latest year $2.4B) · equity value $26.7B · levered FCF discounted at the cost of equity. Reverse DCF is illustrative, not advice.
The QScore of 50 indicates a neutral outlook for Dollar General, driven by a mix of positive and negative factors. The stock scores high on growth, with notable revenue and earnings per share growth of 5.2% and 34.2%, respectively. However, it is held back by a relatively low risk score, reflecting its low beta and high volatility. The long-term and short-term scores are relatively aligned, with only a 2-point difference, suggesting a consistent outlook.