MEDIUM confidence: 100% data completeness, but the composite (50) sits in the indecisive 30–70 range — strong-buy and short calls require a more decisive composite. What does confidence mean?
Technical context for active traders — derived from price, the 50/200-day moving averages, the 52-week range, and recent volume. Not part of the QScore.
AI classification of policy/regulatory sensitivity from the company's sector, industry, and business description. Exposure/sensitivity only — not a political opinion, a prediction of government action, or investment advice. As of 2026-07-10.
Fama-French 5-factor (2×3) + Momentum, monthly OLS with Newey-West errors. Bars show signed factor betas; faded bars/figures aren't statistically significant.
Dated events from the market calendar; the “also watch” items are AI-generated observations from QScoring data. Informational only — not investment advice, and dates can change.
Avg target $169 (last qtr, 11 analysts) → $182 (last mo, 3) (+7.9%).
Buy-rated share 42% → 37% over ~3 months (-5pp).
| Quarter | Est. | Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 2026 | $4.12 | $4.23 | +2.7% |
| Jul 2026 | $3.56 | $3.52 | -1.1% |
| May 2026 | $0.98 | $1.16 | +17.9% |
| Jan 2026 | $1.70 | $1.71 | +0.6% |
| Oct 2025 | $1.82 | $1.88 | +3.3% |
| Aug 2025 | $1.57 | $1.64 | +4.5% |
| May 2025 | $1.75 | $1.76 | +0.6% |
| Jan 2025 | $1.77 | $1.67 | -5.6% |
No recent open-market insider transactions.
Short interest, days-to-cover, and institutional-ownership change require a data-plan upgrade (not yet available).
Forward-return IC, quintile spread & hit rate publish on /performance as the tracking panel accrues enough no-look-ahead history.
| Metric (USD) | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $276.7B— | $398.7B+44.1% | $334.7B-16.0% | $339.2B+1.4% | $323.9B-4.5% |
| EPS (dil.) | $5.39— | $13.26+146.0% | $8.89-33.0% | $7.84-11.8% | $6.70-14.5% |
| Free Cash Flow | $36.1B— | $58.4B+62.0% | $33.5B-42.7% | $30.7B-8.2% | $23.6B-23.1% |
| Gross Margin | 23.5% | 25.9%+2.4pp | 25.1%-0.7pp | 22.6%-2.5pp | 21.7%-0.9pp |
| Operating Margin | 8.7% | 16.1%+7.4pp | 13.3%-2.8pp | 11.7%-1.6pp | 10.5%-1.2pp |
| Net Margin | 8.3% | 14.0%+5.7pp | 10.8%-3.2pp | 9.9%-0.8pp | 8.9%-1.0pp |
Absolute figures with year-over-year change. Margins show the level with the change in percentage points (pp). “n/m” = not meaningful (prior ≤ 0); ⚠ marks a large percentage off a small base — read the dollar figure.
Working the DCF backward: holding the assumptions below, this is the free-cash-flow growth today's price implies over the next 10 years. It is a read on the price's embedded expectations — not a fair-value or target price.
The price implies FCF growth above the analyst consensus of -3.6%/yr (revenue basis).
Base free cash flow $29.3B (avg FY2023–FY2025; latest year $23.6B) · equity value $764.4B · levered FCF discounted at the cost of equity. Reverse DCF is illustrative, not advice.
Net buyback (repurchases less issuance) ÷ market cap, plus trailing dividend yield.
The QScore of 50 for Exxonmobil indicates a neutral outlook, with the stock's short-term score exceeding its long-term score by 7 points. Exxonmobil scores high on momentum, driven by a 60.8% return over the past year and a bullish moving average trend. However, the stock's growth and profitability scores are dragged down by negative revenue and earnings growth, as well as a relatively modest return on equity of 15.6%. The stock trades at a reasonable valuation, with a P/E of 19.1, but its overall QScore is balanced by these contrasting factors.