MEDIUM confidence: 100% data completeness, but the composite (48) sits in the indecisive 30–70 range — strong-buy and short calls require a more decisive composite. What does confidence mean?
Technical context for active traders — derived from price, the 50/200-day moving averages, the 52-week range, and recent volume. Not part of the QScore.
AI classification of policy/regulatory sensitivity from the company's sector, industry, and business description. Exposure/sensitivity only — not a political opinion, a prediction of government action, or investment advice. As of 2026-07-10.
Dated events from the market calendar; the “also watch” items are AI-generated observations from QScoring data. Informational only — not investment advice, and dates can change.
Fama-French 5-factor (2×3) + Momentum, monthly OLS with Newey-West errors. Bars show signed factor betas; faded bars/figures aren't statistically significant.
Net insider -$507K over 180 days (0 open-market buys, 2 sells). Insider buying is the informative signal; routine selling is normal.
Short interest, days-to-cover, and institutional-ownership change require a data-plan upgrade (not yet available).
Forward-return IC, quintile spread & hit rate publish on /performance as the tracking panel accrues enough no-look-ahead history.
Net buyback (repurchases less issuance) ÷ market cap, plus trailing dividend yield.
Avg target $170 (last qtr, 7 analysts) → $167 (last mo, 4) (-2.3%).
Buy-rated share 44% → 40% over ~3 months (-4pp).
| Quarter | Est. | Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 2026 | $3.68 | $3.52 | -4.3% |
| May 2026 | $0.98 | $1.16 | +17.9% |
| Jan 2026 | $1.70 | $1.71 | +0.6% |
| Oct 2025 | $1.82 | $1.88 | +3.3% |
| Aug 2025 | $1.57 | $1.64 | +4.5% |
| May 2025 | $1.75 | $1.76 | +0.6% |
| Jan 2025 | $1.77 | $1.67 | -5.6% |
| Nov 2024 | $1.88 | $1.92 | +2.1% |
| Metric (USD) | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $276.7B— | $398.7B+44.1% | $334.7B-16.0% | $339.2B+1.4% | $323.9B-4.5% |
| EPS (dil.) | $5.39— | $13.26+146.0% | $8.89-33.0% | $7.84-11.8% | $6.70-14.5% |
| Free Cash Flow | $36.1B— | $58.4B+62.0% | $33.5B-42.7% | $30.7B-8.2% | $23.6B-23.1% |
| Gross Margin | 23.5% | 25.9%+2.4pp | 25.1%-0.7pp | 22.6%-2.5pp | 21.7%-0.9pp |
| Operating Margin | 8.7% | 16.1%+7.4pp | 13.3%-2.8pp | 11.7%-1.6pp | 10.5%-1.2pp |
| Net Margin | 8.3% | 14.0%+5.7pp | 10.8%-3.2pp | 9.9%-0.8pp | 8.9%-1.0pp |
Absolute figures with year-over-year change. Margins show the level with the change in percentage points (pp). “n/m” = not meaningful (prior ≤ 0); ⚠ marks a large percentage off a small base — read the dollar figure.
Working the DCF backward: holding the assumptions below, this is the free-cash-flow growth today's price implies over the next 10 years. It is a read on the price's embedded expectations — not a fair-value or target price.
The price implies FCF growth above the analyst consensus of -5.4%/yr (revenue basis).
Base free cash flow $29.3B (avg FY2023–FY2025; latest year $23.6B) · equity value $657.8B · levered FCF discounted at the cost of equity. Reverse DCF is illustrative, not advice.
The QScore of 48 for Exxon Mobil indicates a neutral outlook, with the stock's value and momentum scores offset by weaker growth and profitability metrics. Exxon Mobil scores high on value, trading at a P/E of 20.5, and exhibits strong momentum with a 12-month return of 49.1%. In contrast, the stock's growth score is dragged down by negative revenue and earnings growth. Notably, the short-term score is slightly higher than the long-term score, suggesting some near-term optimism.