MEDIUM confidence: 100% data completeness, but the composite (58) sits in the indecisive 30–70 range — strong-buy and short calls require a more decisive composite. What does confidence mean?
Technical context for active traders — derived from price, the 50/200-day moving averages, the 52-week range, and recent volume. Not part of the QScore.
AI classification of policy/regulatory sensitivity from the company's sector, industry, and business description. Exposure/sensitivity only — not a political opinion, a prediction of government action, or investment advice. As of 2026-07-10.
Fama-French 5-factor (2×3) + Momentum, monthly OLS with Newey-West errors. Bars show signed factor betas; faded bars/figures aren't statistically significant.
Dated events from the market calendar; the “also watch” items are AI-generated observations from QScoring data. Informational only — not investment advice, and dates can change.
Net insider -$7.5B over 180 days (1 open-market buys, 17 sells). Insider buying is the informative signal; routine selling is normal.
Short interest, days-to-cover, and institutional-ownership change require a data-plan upgrade (not yet available).
Forward-return IC, quintile spread & hit rate publish on /performance as the tracking panel accrues enough no-look-ahead history.
| Metric (USD) | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $111.9B— | $170.1B+52.0% | $147.3B-13.4% | $143.1B-2.8% | $132.2B-7.6% |
| EPS (dil.) | $2.97— | $23.27+683.5% | $15.45-33.6% | $4.99-67.7% | $10.79+116.2% |
| Free Cash Flow | $4.2B— | $8.6B+107.3% | $4.6B-46.5% | $2.3B-49.4% | $2.7B+17.0% |
| Gross Margin | 3.0% | 7.5%+4.5pp | 7.7%+0.2pp | 3.4%-4.3pp | 4.9%+1.5pp |
| Operating Margin | 1.1% | 5.9%+4.8pp | 5.6%-0.3pp | 1.6%-4.0pp | 2.7%+1.0pp |
| Net Margin | 1.2% | 6.5%+5.3pp | 4.8%-1.7pp | 1.5%-3.3pp | 3.3%+1.9pp |
Absolute figures with year-over-year change. Margins show the level with the change in percentage points (pp). “n/m” = not meaningful (prior ≤ 0); ⚠ marks a large percentage off a small base — read the dollar figure.
Net buyback (repurchases less issuance) ÷ market cap, plus trailing dividend yield.
Avg target $289 (last qtr, 15 analysts) → $313 (last mo, 6) (+8.2%).
Buy-rated share 60% → 55% over ~3 months (-5pp).
| Quarter | Est. | Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 2026 | $11.73 | $14.08 | +20.0% |
| Aug 2026 | $7.50 | $9.41 | +25.5% |
| Apr 2026 | $-0.54 | $0.49 | +190.3% |
| Feb 2026 | $2.15 | $2.47 | +14.9% |
| Oct 2025 | $2.14 | $2.52 | +17.8% |
| Jul 2025 | $1.72 | $2.38 | +38.4% |
| Apr 2025 | $-0.72 | $-0.90 | -24.5% |
| Jan 2025 | $1.23 | $-0.15 | -112.2% |
Working the DCF backward: holding the assumptions below, this is the free-cash-flow growth today's price implies over the next 10 years. It is a read on the price's embedded expectations — not a fair-value or target price.
The price implies FCF growth above the analyst consensus of 0.7%/yr (revenue basis).
Base free cash flow $3.2B (avg FY2023–FY2025; latest year $2.7B) · equity value $110.3B · levered FCF discounted at the cost of equity. Reverse DCF is illustrative, not advice.
The QScore of 58 for PSX indicates a moderately attractive stock, with the short-term score slightly outpacing the long-term score. PSX scores high on value, with a P/E of 9.0 and EV/EBITDA of 6.3, and exhibits strong momentum, having returned +105% over the past year. In contrast, growth scores are somewhat lower, driven by a -7.6% revenue growth rate, while profitability is also a mixed bag, with a strong ROE near 41% but more modest operating margins.