MEDIUM confidence: 100% data completeness, but the composite (54) sits in the indecisive 30–70 range — strong-buy and short calls require a more decisive composite. What does confidence mean?
Technical context for active traders — derived from price, the 50/200-day moving averages, the 52-week range, and recent volume. Not part of the QScore.
Fama-French 5-factor (2×3) + Momentum, monthly OLS with Newey-West errors. Bars show signed factor betas; faded bars/figures aren't statistically significant.
Dated events from the market calendar; the “also watch” items are AI-generated observations from QScoring data. Informational only — not investment advice, and dates can change.
AI classification of policy/regulatory sensitivity from the company's sector, industry, and business description. Exposure/sensitivity only — not a political opinion, a prediction of government action, or investment advice. As of 2026-07-10.
| Metric (USD) | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $8.0B— | $11.1B+38.7% | $8.3B-25.2% | $9.7B+17.6% | $8.9B-8.4% |
| EPS (dil.) | $2.59— | $11.02+325.5% | $9.25-16.1% | $2.28-75.4% | $3.99+75.0% |
| Free Cash Flow | $2.4B— | $2.5B+6.7% | $772M-69.7% | $769M-0.4% | $1.8B+131.3% |
| Gross Margin | 44.3% | 56.5%+12.1pp | 51.1%-5.4pp | 44.2%-6.9pp | 37.3%-6.9pp |
| Operating Margin | 33.7% | 45.9%+12.2pp | 40.6%-5.3pp | 32.9%-7.7pp | 30.8%-2.0pp |
| Net Margin | 14.2% | 33.2%+19.0pp | 34.5%+1.3pp | 8.3%-26.2pp | 16.1%+7.8pp |
Absolute figures with year-over-year change. Margins show the level with the change in percentage points (pp). “n/m” = not meaningful (prior ≤ 0); ⚠ marks a large percentage off a small base — read the dollar figure.
Net insider -$1.2M over 180 days (0 open-market buys, 2 sells). Insider buying is the informative signal; routine selling is normal.
Short interest, days-to-cover, and institutional-ownership change require a data-plan upgrade (not yet available).
Forward-return IC, quintile spread & hit rate publish on /performance as the tracking panel accrues enough no-look-ahead history.
Net buyback (repurchases less issuance) ÷ market cap, plus trailing dividend yield.
Working the DCF backward: holding the assumptions below, this is the free-cash-flow growth today's price implies over the next 10 years. It is a read on the price's embedded expectations — not a fair-value or target price.
The price implies FCF growth above the analyst consensus of -2.6%/yr (revenue basis).
Base free cash flow $1.1B (avg FY2023–FY2025; latest year $1.8B) · equity value $14.1B · levered FCF discounted at the cost of equity. Reverse DCF is illustrative, not advice.
Avg target $44 (last qtr, 12 analysts) → $45 (last mo, 6) (+0.7%).
Buy-rated share 30% → 32% over ~3 months (+2pp).
| Quarter | Est. | Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 2026 | $1.90 | $1.89 | -0.5% |
| May 2026 | $1.11 | $1.38 | +24.3% |
| Feb 2026 | $0.64 | $0.91 | +41.3% |
| Nov 2025 | $0.79 | $0.93 | +17.3% |
| Aug 2025 | $0.45 | $0.87 | +93.3% |
| May 2025 | $0.83 | $1.06 | +27.7% |
| Feb 2025 | $0.97 | $0.79 | -18.6% |
| Nov 2024 | $1.01 | $1.00 | -1.0% |
APA's QScore of 54 indicates a neutral outlook, driven by strong momentum and value scores, which are offset by lower growth and risk assessments. The stock scores high on value, trading at a P/E of 8.4 and exhibiting a low EV/EBITDA of 3.3, while its momentum is boosted by a 95.6% return over the past year. In contrast, growth scores are tempered by an 8.4% decline in revenue, despite significant EPS and FCF growth. The long-term and short-term scores are relatively aligned, with only a 3-point difference.