MEDIUM confidence: 100% data completeness, but the composite (53) sits in the indecisive 30–70 range — strong-buy and short calls require a more decisive composite. What does confidence mean?
Technical context for active traders — derived from price, the 50/200-day moving averages, the 52-week range, and recent volume. Not part of the QScore.
Fama-French 5-factor (2×3) + Momentum, monthly OLS with Newey-West errors. Bars show signed factor betas; faded bars/figures aren't statistically significant.
AI classification of policy/regulatory sensitivity from the company's sector, industry, and business description. Exposure/sensitivity only — not a political opinion, a prediction of government action, or investment advice. As of 2026-07-10.
Dated events from the market calendar; the “also watch” items are AI-generated observations from QScoring data. Informational only — not investment advice, and dates can change.
Net buyback (repurchases less issuance) ÷ market cap, plus trailing dividend yield.
Avg target $51 (last qtr, 9 analysts) → $52 (last mo, 4) (+2.1%).
Buy-rated share 67% → 70% over ~3 months (+3pp).
| Quarter | Est. | Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 2026 | $0.83 | $0.76 | -9.0% |
| Apr 2026 | $1.17 | $1.15 | -1.7% |
| Feb 2026 | $0.50 | $0.42 | -16.5% |
| Oct 2025 | $0.22 | $0.15 | -31.8% |
| Jul 2025 | $0.42 | $0.35 | -16.5% |
| Apr 2025 | $0.83 | $0.78 | -6.5% |
| Feb 2025 | $0.40 | $0.58 | +45.0% |
| Oct 2024 | $-0.04 | $-0.12 | -172.7% |
| Metric (USD) | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $5.8B— | $8.3B+43.3% | $4.3B-48.4% | $4.1B-3.7% | $5.0B+21.7% |
| EPS (dil.) | $-0.61— | $5.69n/m | $0.64-88.8% | $0.18-71.9% | $2.03+1027.8% |
| Free Cash Flow | $1.5B— | $2.9B+86.9% | $827M-71.4% | $747M-9.7% | $1.2B+66.3% |
| Gross Margin | 38.9% | 55.3%+16.4pp | 14.3%-41.0pp | 7.9%-6.4pp | 22.1%+14.2pp |
| Operating Margin | 0.4% | 30.6%+30.2pp | 9.3%-21.3pp | 0.0%-9.2pp | 16.5%+16.5pp |
| Net Margin | -3.2% | 22.6%+25.8pp | 4.6%-17.9pp | 1.4%-3.2pp | 12.7%+11.3pp |
Absolute figures with year-over-year change. Margins show the level with the change in percentage points (pp). “n/m” = not meaningful (prior ≤ 0); ⚠ marks a large percentage off a small base — read the dollar figure.
Net insider -$11.2M over 180 days (0 open-market buys, 8 sells). Insider buying is the informative signal; routine selling is normal.
Short interest, days-to-cover, and institutional-ownership change require a data-plan upgrade (not yet available).
Forward-return IC, quintile spread & hit rate publish on /performance as the tracking panel accrues enough no-look-ahead history.
Working the DCF backward: holding the assumptions below, this is the free-cash-flow growth today's price implies over the next 10 years. It is a read on the price's embedded expectations — not a fair-value or target price.
The price implies FCF growth below the analyst consensus of 4.5%/yr (revenue basis).
Base free cash flow $939M (avg FY2023–FY2025; latest year $1.2B) · equity value $11.4B · levered FCF discounted at the cost of equity. Reverse DCF is illustrative, not advice.
The QScore of 53 for Antero Resources indicates a neutral outlook, driven by a strong growth profile, with revenue and EPS growth of 21.7% and 1038.9%, respectively. The stock scores high on value, with a P/E of 10.5 and P/B of 1.4, but is held back by lower scores in momentum and risk, due to a bearish 50-day versus 200-day moving average and high 60-day volatility of 35.5%. The long-term and short-term scores are relatively close, with a 6-point difference, suggesting a consistent view across different time horizons.