MEDIUM confidence: 100% data completeness, but the composite (56) sits in the indecisive 30–70 range — strong-buy and short calls require a more decisive composite. What does confidence mean?
Technical context for active traders — derived from price, the 50/200-day moving averages, the 52-week range, and recent volume. Not part of the QScore.
AI classification of policy/regulatory sensitivity from the company's sector, industry, and business description. Exposure/sensitivity only — not a political opinion, a prediction of government action, or investment advice. As of 2026-09-13.
Fama-French 5-factor (2×3) + Momentum, monthly OLS with Newey-West errors. Bars show signed factor betas; faded bars/figures aren't statistically significant.
Dated events from the market calendar; the “also watch” items are AI-generated observations from QScoring data. Informational only — not investment advice, and dates can change.
Net insider -$1.6M over 180 days (0 open-market buys, 3 sells). Insider buying is the informative signal; routine selling is normal.
Short interest, days-to-cover, and institutional-ownership change require a data-plan upgrade (not yet available).
Forward-return IC, quintile spread & hit rate publish on /performance as the tracking panel accrues enough no-look-ahead history.
Avg target $42 (last qtr, 11 analysts) → $45 (last mo, 6) (+6.4%).
Buy-rated share 67% → 61% over ~3 months (-6pp).
| Quarter | Est. | Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 2026 | $1.96 | $2.19 | +11.7% |
| May 2026 | $1.12 | $1.55 | +38.4% |
| Feb 2026 | $0.83 | $0.83 | +0.2% |
| Nov 2025 | $1.25 | $1.33 | +6.4% |
| Jul 2025 | $1.25 | $1.50 | +20.0% |
| May 2025 | $1.62 | $1.76 | +8.6% |
| Feb 2025 | $2.00 | $1.91 | -4.5% |
| Oct 2024 | $1.53 | $1.62 | +5.9% |
| Metric (USD) | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $2.6B— | $3.3B+28.8% | $2.4B-29.3% | $2.7B+13.0% | $3.2B+18.1% |
| EPS (dil.) | $0.29— | $8.96+2989.7% | $6.86-23.4% | $6.67-2.8% | $5.64-15.4% |
| Free Cash Flow | $482M— | $806M+67.5% | $475M-41.1% | -$1.6B-443.5% | $573Mn/m |
| Gross Margin | 50.7% | 63.4%+12.7pp | 47.0%-16.4pp | 45.9%-1.1pp | 31.9%-14.0pp |
| Operating Margin | 8.0% | 47.2%+39.2pp | 41.7%-5.5pp | 40.3%-1.5pp | 26.1%-14.2pp |
| Net Margin | 1.4% | 33.2%+31.8pp | 34.6%+1.4pp | 28.8%-5.8pp | 20.5%-8.3pp |
Absolute figures with year-over-year change. Margins show the level with the change in percentage points (pp). “n/m” = not meaningful (prior ≤ 0); ⚠ marks a large percentage off a small base — read the dollar figure.
Net buyback (repurchases less issuance) ÷ market cap, plus trailing dividend yield.
SM Energy Company's QScore of 56 indicates a neutral outlook, driven by strong momentum and value scores, which are offset by lower profitability and risk scores. The stock's value scores high on metrics such as P/E of 10.4 and P/B of 1.2, while its momentum is boosted by a 12-month return of 95.8%. In contrast, its profitability is weighed down by a negative free cash flow yield, despite a respectable ROE of 16.5%. The long-term and short-term scores are relatively aligned, with only a 5-point difference.