MEDIUM confidence: 100% data completeness, but the composite (58) sits in the indecisive 30–70 range — strong-buy and short calls require a more decisive composite. What does confidence mean?
Technical context for active traders — derived from price, the 50/200-day moving averages, the 52-week range, and recent volume. Not part of the QScore.
Dated events from the market calendar; the “also watch” items are AI-generated observations from QScoring data. Informational only — not investment advice, and dates can change.
Fama-French 5-factor (2×3) + Momentum, monthly OLS with Newey-West errors. Bars show signed factor betas; faded bars/figures aren't statistically significant.
AI classification of policy/regulatory sensitivity from the company's sector, industry, and business description. Exposure/sensitivity only — not a political opinion, a prediction of government action, or investment advice. As of 2026-07-10.
Net insider $706K over 180 days (3 open-market buys, 5 sells). Insider buying is the informative signal; routine selling is normal.
Short interest, days-to-cover, and institutional-ownership change require a data-plan upgrade (not yet available).
Forward-return IC, quintile spread & hit rate publish on /performance as the tracking panel accrues enough no-look-ahead history.
Avg target $90 (last qtr, 8 analysts) → $98 (last mo, 4) (+7.9%).
Buy-rated share 44% → 38% over ~3 months (-6pp).
| Quarter | Est. | Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 2026 | $4.49 | $5.31 | +18.3% |
| May 2026 | $-0.06 | $0.69 | +1166.1% |
| Feb 2026 | $0.44 | $1.20 | +172.7% |
| Oct 2025 | $1.94 | $2.44 | +25.8% |
| Jul 2025 | $1.09 | $1.70 | +56.0% |
| May 2025 | $-0.41 | $-0.27 | +34.1% |
| Feb 2025 | $-0.91 | $-1.02 | -12.1% |
| Oct 2024 | $0.29 | $0.51 | +75.9% |
Net buyback (repurchases less issuance) ÷ market cap, plus trailing dividend yield.
| Metric (USD) | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $18.4B— | $38.2B+107.8% | $32.0B-16.3% | $28.6B-10.6% | $26.9B-6.0% |
| EPS (dil.) | $3.39— | $14.28+321.2% | $8.29-41.9% | $0.91-89.0% | $3.11+241.8% |
| Free Cash Flow | -$407M— | $3.3Bn/m | $1.9B-41.2% | $640M-66.5% | $866M+35.3% |
| Gross Margin | 14.3% | 17.8%+3.5pp | 16.1%-1.8pp | 11.2%-4.8pp | 5.2%-6.0pp |
| Operating Margin | 4.1% | 10.6%+6.5pp | 6.9%-3.7pp | 0.9%-6.0pp | 3.5%+2.6pp |
| Net Margin | 3.0% | 7.6%+4.6pp | 5.0%-2.7pp | 0.6%-4.4pp | 2.2%+1.5pp |
Absolute figures with year-over-year change. Margins show the level with the change in percentage points (pp). “n/m” = not meaningful (prior ≤ 0); ⚠ marks a large percentage off a small base — read the dollar figure.
Working the DCF backward: holding the assumptions below, this is the free-cash-flow growth today's price implies over the next 10 years. It is a read on the price's embedded expectations — not a fair-value or target price.
The price implies FCF growth above the analyst consensus of -4.6%/yr (revenue basis).
Base free cash flow $1.1B (avg FY2023–FY2025; latest year $866M) · equity value $15.8B · levered FCF discounted at the cost of equity. Reverse DCF is illustrative, not advice.
The QScore of 58 for HF Sinclair Corporation indicates a relatively neutral outlook, with the short-term score slightly outpacing the long-term score. The stock scores high on momentum, driven by a 12-month return of 100.9% and a bullish 50-day versus 200-day moving average trend. In contrast, the stock's profitability and risk profiles exhibit more mixed results, with a return on equity near 20% but also a relatively high 60-day volatility of 39.0%. The stock trades at a discount, with a P/E of 8.4 and EV/EBITDA of 4.5, contributing to its strong value score.