MEDIUM confidence: 100% data completeness, but the composite (57) sits in the indecisive 30–70 range — strong-buy and short calls require a more decisive composite. What does confidence mean?
Technical context for active traders — derived from price, the 50/200-day moving averages, the 52-week range, and recent volume. Not part of the QScore.
Fama-French 5-factor (2×3) + Momentum, monthly OLS with Newey-West errors. Bars show signed factor betas; faded bars/figures aren't statistically significant.
Avg target $60 (last qtr, 4 analysts) → $0 (last mo, 0) (-100.0%).
Buy-rated share 53% → 53% over ~3 months (+0pp).
| Quarter | Est. | Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 2026 | $1.05 | $0.90 | -14.3% |
| Feb 2026 | $1.06 | $1.17 | +10.4% |
| Nov 2025 | $1.07 | $1.52 | +42.1% |
| Aug 2025 | $1.06 | $1.03 | -2.8% |
| May 2025 | $1.10 | $1.10 | +0.0% |
| Feb 2025 | $1.04 | $1.07 | +2.9% |
| Nov 2024 | $1.05 | $1.01 | -3.8% |
| Aug 2024 | $0.98 | $1.15 | +17.3% |
| Metric (USD) | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $9.6B— | $10.5B+10.1% | $10.4B-1.0% | $10.9B+4.5% | $11.8B+8.4% |
| EPS (dil.) | $2.86— | $3.75+31.1% | $3.82+1.9% | $4.21+10.2% | $4.82+14.5% |
| Free Cash Flow | $4.4B— | $4.2B-3.9% | $4.5B+5.9% | $4.9B+9.6% | $4.1B-16.1% |
| Gross Margin | 42.3% | 40.7%-1.7pp | 43.7%+3.0pp | 44.2%+0.4pp | 45.2%+1.1pp |
| Operating Margin | 41.7% | 46.6%+4.9pp | 47.0%+0.4pp | 48.5%+1.5pp | 40.3%-8.2pp |
| Net Margin | 32.1% | 37.4%+5.3pp | 37.6%+0.2pp | 39.6%+1.9pp | 41.6%+2.0pp |
Absolute figures with year-over-year change. Margins show the level with the change in percentage points (pp). “n/m” = not meaningful (prior ≤ 0); ⚠ marks a large percentage off a small base — read the dollar figure.
Net buyback (repurchases less issuance) ÷ market cap, plus trailing dividend yield.
No recent open-market insider transactions.
Short interest, days-to-cover, and institutional-ownership change require a data-plan upgrade (not yet available).
Forward-return IC, quintile spread & hit rate publish on /performance as the tracking panel accrues enough no-look-ahead history.
The QScore of 57 for MPLX indicates a neutral outlook, driven by strong profitability scores, with a notable ROE of 33.3% and operating margin of 44.0%, which boosts its overall score. However, the stock's value and growth scores are more subdued, with a P/E of 12.2 and revenue growth of 8.4%, which temper its overall QScore. The momentum score is moderately positive, with a 12-month return of 8.8%, while the risk score is also a positive factor, with a low beta of 0.5.