MEDIUM confidence: 100% data completeness, but the composite (58) sits in the indecisive 30–70 range — strong-buy and short calls require a more decisive composite. What does confidence mean?
Technical context for active traders — derived from price, the 50/200-day moving averages, the 52-week range, and recent volume. Not part of the QScore.
Fama-French 5-factor (2×3) + Momentum, monthly OLS with Newey-West errors. Bars show signed factor betas; faded bars/figures aren't statistically significant.
AI classification of policy/regulatory sensitivity from the company's sector, industry, and business description. Exposure/sensitivity only — not a political opinion, a prediction of government action, or investment advice. As of 2026-07-10.
Dated events from the market calendar; the “also watch” items are AI-generated observations from QScoring data. Informational only — not investment advice, and dates can change.
| Metric (USD) | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $120.0B— | $177.5B+47.9% | $148.4B-16.4% | $138.9B-6.4% | $132.7B-4.4% |
| EPS (dil.) | $2.69— | $28.12+945.4% | $23.65-15.9% | $10.09-57.3% | $13.27+31.5% |
| Free Cash Flow | $2.9B— | $13.9B+381.4% | $12.2B-12.3% | $6.1B-49.8% | $4.8B-22.3% |
| Gross Margin | 5.5% | 12.7%+7.2pp | 11.1%-1.6pp | 6.7%-4.4pp | 7.5%+0.8pp |
| Operating Margin | 3.6% | 10.7%+7.1pp | 8.5%-2.2pp | 3.8%-4.7pp | 4.3%+0.6pp |
| Net Margin | 8.1% | 8.2%+0.1pp | 6.5%-1.7pp | 2.5%-4.0pp | 3.0%+0.6pp |
Absolute figures with year-over-year change. Margins show the level with the change in percentage points (pp). “n/m” = not meaningful (prior ≤ 0); ⚠ marks a large percentage off a small base — read the dollar figure.
Avg target $321 (last qtr, 13 analysts) → $334 (last mo, 6) (+3.9%).
Buy-rated share 50% → 50% over ~3 months (+0pp).
| Quarter | Est. | Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 2026 | $14.27 | $17.73 | +24.2% |
| May 2026 | $0.74 | $1.65 | +123.3% |
| Feb 2026 | $2.72 | $4.07 | +49.6% |
| Nov 2025 | $3.15 | $3.01 | -4.4% |
| Aug 2025 | $3.24 | $3.96 | +22.2% |
| May 2025 | $-0.54 | $-0.24 | +55.7% |
| Feb 2025 | $0.02 | $0.77 | +3401.6% |
| Nov 2024 | $0.98 | $1.87 | +90.8% |
Net insider -$3.0M over 180 days (0 open-market buys, 8 sells). Insider buying is the informative signal; routine selling is normal.
Short interest, days-to-cover, and institutional-ownership change require a data-plan upgrade (not yet available).
Forward-return IC, quintile spread & hit rate publish on /performance as the tracking panel accrues enough no-look-ahead history.
Net buyback (repurchases less issuance) ÷ market cap, plus trailing dividend yield.
Working the DCF backward: holding the assumptions below, this is the free-cash-flow growth today's price implies over the next 10 years. It is a read on the price's embedded expectations — not a fair-value or target price.
The price implies FCF growth below the analyst consensus of 0.5%/yr (revenue basis).
Base free cash flow $7.7B (avg FY2023–FY2025; latest year $4.8B) · equity value $102.6B · levered FCF discounted at the cost of equity. Reverse DCF is illustrative, not advice.
MPC's QScore of 58 indicates a moderately attractive stock, driven by strong momentum with a 12-month return of 120% and a bullish 50-day versus 200-day moving average. The stock's value score is also a positive factor, with a P/E of 12.1 and EV/EBITDA of 7.4, although its growth score is held back by negative revenue and free cash flow growth. Notably, the short-term score of 64 diverges from the long-term score of 52, suggesting recent performance has been particularly strong, with the stock exhibiting strong momentum and a high ROE near 50%.