MEDIUM confidence: 100% data completeness, but the composite (54) sits in the indecisive 30–70 range — strong-buy and short calls require a more decisive composite. What does confidence mean?
Technical context for active traders — derived from price, the 50/200-day moving averages, the 52-week range, and recent volume. Not part of the QScore.
Fama-French 5-factor (2×3) + Momentum, monthly OLS with Newey-West errors. Bars show signed factor betas; faded bars/figures aren't statistically significant.
AI classification of policy/regulatory sensitivity from the company's sector, industry, and business description. Exposure/sensitivity only — not a political opinion, a prediction of government action, or investment advice. As of 2026-07-10.
Dated events from the market calendar; the “also watch” items are AI-generated observations from QScoring data. Informational only — not investment advice, and dates can change.
Avg target $418 (last qtr, 20 analysts) → $460 (last mo, 8) (+10.1%).
Buy-rated share 50% → 41% over ~3 months (-9pp).
| Quarter | Est. | Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 2026 | $21.17 | $23.90 | +12.9% |
| Jul 2026 | $10.11 | $12.54 | +24.0% |
| Apr 2026 | $3.16 | $4.22 | +33.5% |
| Jan 2026 | $3.27 | $3.82 | +16.8% |
| Oct 2025 | $3.05 | $3.66 | +20.0% |
| Jul 2025 | $1.75 | $2.28 | +30.3% |
| Apr 2025 | $0.41 | $0.89 | +116.9% |
| Jan 2025 | $0.07 | $0.64 | +829.2% |
Net buyback (repurchases less issuance) ÷ market cap, plus trailing dividend yield.
Net insider -$5.7M over 180 days (0 open-market buys, 3 sells). Insider buying is the informative signal; routine selling is normal.
Short interest, days-to-cover, and institutional-ownership change require a data-plan upgrade (not yet available).
Forward-return IC, quintile spread & hit rate publish on /performance as the tracking panel accrues enough no-look-ahead history.
| Metric (USD) | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $114.0B— | $176.4B+54.8% | $144.8B-17.9% | $129.9B-10.3% | $122.7B-5.5% |
| EPS (dil.) | $2.27— | $29.00+1177.5% | $24.95-14.0% | $8.58-65.6% | $7.57-11.8% |
| Free Cash Flow | $4.2B— | $10.9B+159.7% | $8.3B-23.6% | $5.8B-30.6% | $5.0B-12.9% |
| Gross Margin | 2.7% | 9.5%+6.8pp | 8.9%-0.6pp | 3.7%-5.2pp | 4.4%+0.7pp |
| Operating Margin | 1.9% | 8.9%+7.0pp | 8.2%-0.7pp | 2.9%-5.3pp | 3.5%+0.6pp |
| Net Margin | 0.8% | 6.5%+5.7pp | 6.1%-0.4pp | 2.1%-4.0pp | 1.9%-0.2pp |
Absolute figures with year-over-year change. Margins show the level with the change in percentage points (pp). “n/m” = not meaningful (prior ≤ 0); ⚠ marks a large percentage off a small base — read the dollar figure.
Working the DCF backward: holding the assumptions below, this is the free-cash-flow growth today's price implies over the next 10 years. It is a read on the price's embedded expectations — not a fair-value or target price.
The price implies FCF growth above the analyst consensus of -0.9%/yr (revenue basis).
Base free cash flow $6.4B (avg FY2023–FY2025; latest year $5.0B) · equity value $115.1B · levered FCF discounted at the cost of equity. Reverse DCF is illustrative, not advice.
The QScore of 54 for Valero Energy Corporation suggests a neutral outlook, driven by strong momentum and value scores, which are offset by weaker growth and risk metrics. The stock scores high on value, trading at a P/E of 9.0 and exhibiting strong profitability with an ROE near 51.5%. In contrast, growth scores are lower due to negative revenue and EPS growth over the past year, while risk scores are also relatively low due to moderate volatility and a beta of 0.6. Momentum is a notable strength, with a 134.2% return over the past year.