MEDIUM confidence: 100% data completeness, but the composite (51) sits in the indecisive 30–70 range — strong-buy and short calls require a more decisive composite. What does confidence mean?
Technical context for active traders — derived from price, the 50/200-day moving averages, the 52-week range, and recent volume. Not part of the QScore.
Fama-French 5-factor (2×3) + Momentum, monthly OLS with Newey-West errors. Bars show signed factor betas; faded bars/figures aren't statistically significant.
Net buyback (repurchases less issuance) ÷ market cap, plus trailing dividend yield.
Net insider -$7.7M over 180 days (1 open-market buys, 6 sells). Insider buying is the informative signal; routine selling is normal.
Short interest, days-to-cover, and institutional-ownership change require a data-plan upgrade (not yet available).
Forward-return IC, quintile spread & hit rate publish on /performance as the tracking panel accrues enough no-look-ahead history.
Avg target $97 (last qtr, 12 analysts) → $94 (last mo, 3) (-3.3%).
Buy-rated share 81% → 82% over ~3 months (+1pp).
| Quarter | Est. | Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 2026 | $0.12 | $0.12 | -2.4% |
| Feb 2026 | $0.10 | $0.15 | +49.0% |
| Oct 2025 | $0.87 | $0.88 | +1.1% |
| Jul 2025 | $0.85 | $0.87 | +2.4% |
| Apr 2025 | $0.82 | $0.84 | +2.4% |
| Feb 2025 | $-0.02 | $0.81 | +4150.0% |
| Oct 2024 | $0.80 | $0.80 | +0.0% |
| Aug 2024 | $0.79 | $0.80 | +1.3% |
| Metric (USD) | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $3.8B— | $4.1B+7.9% | $4.5B+8.9% | $4.9B+9.5% | $5.8B+18.5% |
| EPS (dil.) | $0.13— | $-0.13-200.0% | $-0.10n/m | $0.19n/m | $0.54+184.2% |
| Free Cash Flow | $859M— | $926M+7.9% | $935M+0.9% | $1.1B+13.0% | $1.3B+24.6% |
| Gross Margin | 45.4% | 44.7%-0.7pp | 43.1%-1.7pp | 42.6%-0.5pp | -5.9%-48.5pp |
| Operating Margin | 11.0% | 11.7%+0.7pp | 9.2%-2.5pp | 13.8%+4.6pp | 14.2%+0.3pp |
| Net Margin | 1.3% | -1.1%-2.4pp | -0.9%+0.2pp | 1.6%+2.6pp | 4.3%+2.7pp |
Absolute figures with year-over-year change. Margins show the level with the change in percentage points (pp). “n/m” = not meaningful (prior ≤ 0); ⚠ marks a large percentage off a small base — read the dollar figure.
The QScore of 51 for Ventas indicates a neutral outlook, with the short-term score of 57 diverging from the long-term score of 46 by 11 points. The stock scores high on growth and momentum, driven by strong revenue and EPS growth of 18.5% and 175%, respectively, as well as a 40.2% return over the past year. However, it trades at a premium, with a P/E of 159x, and exhibits weak profitability, with an ROE of only 2.1%. The risk profile is relatively stable, with a beta of 0.7.