MEDIUM confidence: 100% data completeness, but the composite (62) sits in the indecisive 30–70 range — strong-buy and short calls require a more decisive composite. What does confidence mean?
Technical context for active traders — derived from price, the 50/200-day moving averages, the 52-week range, and recent volume. Not part of the QScore.
Fama-French 5-factor (2×3) + Momentum, monthly OLS with Newey-West errors. Bars show signed factor betas; faded bars/figures aren't statistically significant.
Net insider -$1.2M over 180 days (20 open-market buys, 1 sells). Insider buying is the informative signal; routine selling is normal.
Short interest, days-to-cover, and institutional-ownership change require a data-plan upgrade (not yet available).
Forward-return IC, quintile spread & hit rate publish on /performance as the tracking panel accrues enough no-look-ahead history.
Avg target $208 (last qtr, 10 analysts) → $213 (last mo, 5) (+2.2%).
Buy-rated share 43% → 43% over ~3 months (+0pp).
| Quarter | Est. | Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 2026 | $1.46 | $1.48 | +1.4% |
| Feb 2026 | $1.90 | $9.35 | +392.1% |
| Nov 2025 | $3.09 | $3.22 | +4.2% |
| Aug 2025 | $3.04 | $3.05 | +0.3% |
| May 2025 | $2.91 | $2.95 | +1.4% |
| Feb 2025 | $1.98 | $3.68 | +85.9% |
| Nov 2024 | $1.57 | $2.84 | +80.9% |
| Aug 2024 | $2.93 | $2.90 | -1.0% |
| Metric (USD) | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $5.1B— | $5.3B+3.4% | $5.7B+6.9% | $6.0B+5.4% | $6.4B+6.7% |
| EPS (dil.) | $6.84— | $6.52-4.7% | $6.98+7.1% | $7.26+4.0% | $14.14+94.8% |
| Free Cash Flow | $3.1B— | $3.1B+0.2% | $3.1B+0.7% | $3.1B-2.5% | $3.6B+16.6% |
| Gross Margin | 81.0% | 81.1%+0.1pp | 81.8%+0.7pp | 82.5%+0.7pp | 85.7%+3.2pp |
| Operating Margin | 47.2% | 48.8%+1.7pp | 49.6%+0.8pp | 51.9%+2.3pp | 49.9%-2.0pp |
| Net Margin | 44.0% | 40.4%-3.5pp | 40.3%-0.1pp | 39.8%-0.6pp | 72.5%+32.8pp |
Absolute figures with year-over-year change. Margins show the level with the change in percentage points (pp). “n/m” = not meaningful (prior ≤ 0); ⚠ marks a large percentage off a small base — read the dollar figure.
Net buyback (repurchases less issuance) ÷ market cap, plus trailing dividend yield.
The QScore of 62 for Simon Property Group indicates a moderately favorable outlook, driven by strong momentum and profitability scores of 78. The stock exhibits strong momentum, with a 44.1% return over the past year and an ROE near 126%. However, the value score is relatively low at 42, reflecting a P/E of 15.8 and P/B of 15.1, indicating the stock trades at a premium. The short-term score is notably higher than the long-term score, suggesting recent performance has been particularly strong.