MEDIUM confidence: 100% data completeness, but the composite (58) sits in the indecisive 30–70 range — strong-buy and short calls require a more decisive composite. What does confidence mean?
Technical context for active traders — derived from price, the 50/200-day moving averages, the 52-week range, and recent volume. Not part of the QScore.
Fama-French 5-factor (2×3) + Momentum, monthly OLS with Newey-West errors. Bars show signed factor betas; faded bars/figures aren't statistically significant.
| Metric (USD) | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $751M— | $4.1B+452.3% | $5.6B+35.1% | $6.4B+13.3% | $6.7B+5.4% |
| EPS (dil.) | $6.39— | $3.92-38.7% | $-3.61-192.1% | $1.62n/m | $2.92+80.2% |
| Free Cash Flow | $2.5B— | $4.4B+71.7% | $2.0B-54.8% | $2.4B+24.2% | -$222M-109.1% |
| Gross Margin | 93.4% | 99.0%+5.6pp | 99.1%+0.1pp | 99.0%-0.1pp | 99.9%+0.9pp |
| Operating Margin | 389.8% | 75.2%-314.5pp | 40.0%-35.2pp | 88.4%+48.4pp | 102.6%+14.2pp |
| Net Margin | 318.1% | 41.6%-276.5pp | -29.3%-70.9pp | 15.8%+45.1pp | 30.3%+14.5pp |
Absolute figures with year-over-year change. Margins show the level with the change in percentage points (pp). “n/m” = not meaningful (prior ≤ 0); ⚠ marks a large percentage off a small base — read the dollar figure.
Net buyback (repurchases less issuance) ÷ market cap, plus trailing dividend yield.
Net insider -$4.3M over 180 days (0 open-market buys, 6 sells). Insider buying is the informative signal; routine selling is normal.
Short interest, days-to-cover, and institutional-ownership change require a data-plan upgrade (not yet available).
Forward-return IC, quintile spread & hit rate publish on /performance as the tracking panel accrues enough no-look-ahead history.
Avg target $24 (last qtr, 2 analysts) → $24 (last mo, 1) (+2.1%).
Buy-rated share 69% → 69% over ~3 months (+0pp).
| Quarter | Est. | Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 2026 | $0.74 | $0.33 | -55.4% |
| Jan 2026 | $0.72 | $0.74 | +2.8% |
| Oct 2025 | $0.72 | $0.73 | +1.4% |
| Jul 2025 | $0.72 | $0.73 | +1.4% |
| Apr 2025 | $0.71 | $0.72 | +1.4% |
| Jan 2025 | $0.67 | $0.72 | +7.5% |
| Oct 2024 | $0.67 | $0.66 | -1.5% |
| Jul 2024 | $0.66 | $0.68 | +3.0% |
The QScore of 58 for Annaly Capital Management indicates a neutral outlook, with the stock scoring high on value due to its low P/E of 7.7 and P/B of 1.0. However, growth scores are dragged down by negative free cash flow growth, while momentum is moderate with a 12-month return of 19.3% and a high RSI of 72.6. The long-term and short-term scores are relatively aligned, suggesting a consistent view of the stock's prospects. Overall, the stock trades at a discount to its peers but exhibits some volatility, with a beta of 1.2 and 60-day volatility of 19.5%.