MEDIUM confidence: 100% data completeness, but the composite (61) sits in the indecisive 30–70 range — strong-buy and short calls require a more decisive composite. What does confidence mean?
Technical context for active traders — derived from price, the 50/200-day moving averages, the 52-week range, and recent volume. Not part of the QScore.
Dated events from the market calendar; the “also watch” items are AI-generated observations from QScoring data. Informational only — not investment advice, and dates can change.
AI classification of policy/regulatory sensitivity from the company's sector, industry, and business description. Exposure/sensitivity only — not a political opinion, a prediction of government action, or investment advice. As of 2026-07-10.
Fama-French 5-factor (2×3) + Momentum, monthly OLS with Newey-West errors. Bars show signed factor betas; faded bars/figures aren't statistically significant.
Net insider -$5.5M over 180 days (0 open-market buys, 7 sells). Insider buying is the informative signal; routine selling is normal.
Short interest, days-to-cover, and institutional-ownership change require a data-plan upgrade (not yet available).
Forward-return IC, quintile spread & hit rate publish on /performance as the tracking panel accrues enough no-look-ahead history.
Working the DCF backward: holding the assumptions below, this is the free-cash-flow growth today's price implies over the next 10 years. It is a read on the price's embedded expectations — not a fair-value or target price.
The price implies FCF growth below the analyst consensus of 16.2%/yr (revenue basis).
Base free cash flow $1.4B (avg FY2023–FY2025; latest year -$222M) · equity value $17.6B · levered FCF discounted at the cost of equity. Reverse DCF is illustrative, not advice.
Buy-rated share 69% → 69% over ~3 months (+0pp).
| Quarter | Est. | Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 2026 | $0.75 | $0.79 | +5.2% |
| Apr 2026 | $0.74 | $0.76 | +2.0% |
| Jan 2026 | $0.72 | $0.74 | +2.8% |
| Oct 2025 | $0.72 | $0.73 | +1.4% |
| Jul 2025 | $0.72 | $0.73 | +1.4% |
| Apr 2025 | $0.71 | $0.72 | +1.4% |
| Jan 2025 | $0.67 | $0.72 | +7.5% |
| Oct 2024 | $0.67 | $0.66 | -1.5% |
| Metric (USD) | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $751M— | $4.1B+452.3% | $5.6B+35.1% | $6.4B+13.3% | $6.7B+5.4% |
| EPS (dil.) | $6.39— | $3.92-38.7% | $-3.61-192.1% | $1.62n/m | $2.92+80.2% |
| Free Cash Flow | $2.5B— | $4.4B+71.7% | $2.0B-54.8% | $2.4B+24.2% | -$222M-109.1% |
| Gross Margin | 93.4% | 99.0%+5.6pp | 99.1%+0.1pp | 99.0%-0.1pp | 99.9%+0.9pp |
| Operating Margin | 389.8% | 75.2%-314.5pp | 40.0%-35.2pp | 88.4%+48.4pp | 102.6%+14.2pp |
| Net Margin | 318.1% | 41.6%-276.5pp | -29.3%-70.9pp | 15.8%+45.1pp | 30.3%+14.5pp |
Absolute figures with year-over-year change. Margins show the level with the change in percentage points (pp). “n/m” = not meaningful (prior ≤ 0); ⚠ marks a large percentage off a small base — read the dollar figure.
Net buyback (repurchases less issuance) ÷ market cap, plus trailing dividend yield.
The QScore of 61 for NLY indicates a relatively neutral outlook, with the short-term score slightly outpacing the long-term score. NLY scores high on value, with a P/E of 5.8 and P/B of 1.0, and exhibits strong momentum, having returned 13.1% over the past year. However, growth is a detractor, driven by a decline in free cash flow growth of 109.1%. The stock's risk profile is relatively moderate, with a beta of 1.2 and 60-day volatility of 20.4%.