MEDIUM confidence: 100% data completeness, but the composite (59) sits in the indecisive 30–70 range — strong-buy and short calls require a more decisive composite. What does confidence mean?
Technical context for active traders — derived from price, the 50/200-day moving averages, the 52-week range, and recent volume. Not part of the QScore.
AI classification of policy/regulatory sensitivity from the company's sector, industry, and business description. Exposure/sensitivity only — not a political opinion, a prediction of government action, or investment advice. As of 2026-07-10.
Dated events from the market calendar; the “also watch” items are AI-generated observations from QScoring data. Informational only — not investment advice, and dates can change.
Fama-French 5-factor (2×3) + Momentum, monthly OLS with Newey-West errors. Bars show signed factor betas; faded bars/figures aren't statistically significant.
| Metric (USD) | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $1.3B— | $1.5B+14.3% | $1.6B+8.9% | $1.7B+6.5% | $1.9B+8.0% |
| EPS (dil.) | $0.41— | $0.71+73.2% | $1.01+42.3% | $1.08+6.9% | $1.18+9.3% |
| Free Cash Flow | $473M— | $527M+11.4% | $605M+14.8% | $690M+14.1% | $746M+8.2% |
| Gross Margin | 53.8% | 53.8%+0.1pp | 54.4%+0.6pp | 55.6%+1.2pp | 3.4%-52.2pp |
| Operating Margin | 49.4% | 49.1%-0.4pp | 49.7%+0.6pp | 50.6%+0.9pp | 24.2%-26.4pp |
| Net Margin | 14.5% | 18.3%+3.8pp | 23.4%+5.1pp | 23.9%+0.4pp | 24.3%+0.4pp |
Absolute figures with year-over-year change. Margins show the level with the change in percentage points (pp). “n/m” = not meaningful (prior ≤ 0); ⚠ marks a large percentage off a small base — read the dollar figure.
Avg target $36 (last qtr, 11 analysts) → $37 (last mo, 3) (+2.6%).
Buy-rated share 52% → 58% over ~3 months (+6pp).
| Quarter | Est. | Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 2026 | $0.18 | $0.31 | +72.4% |
| May 2026 | $0.18 | $0.35 | +98.5% |
| Feb 2026 | $0.22 | $0.47 | +113.9% |
| Oct 2025 | $0.46 | $0.47 | +2.2% |
| Jul 2025 | $0.46 | $0.47 | +2.2% |
| May 2025 | $0.45 | $0.46 | +2.2% |
| Feb 2025 | $0.15 | $0.45 | +200.0% |
| Oct 2024 | $0.43 | $0.44 | +2.3% |
Net buyback (repurchases less issuance) ÷ market cap, plus trailing dividend yield.
Working the DCF backward: holding the assumptions below, this is the free-cash-flow growth today's price implies over the next 10 years. It is a read on the price's embedded expectations — not a fair-value or target price.
The price implies FCF growth above the analyst consensus of 3.0%/yr (revenue basis).
Base free cash flow $680M (avg FY2023–FY2025; latest year $746M) · equity value $12.4B · levered FCF discounted at the cost of equity. Reverse DCF is illustrative, not advice.
Net insider $378K over 180 days (23 open-market buys, 1 sells). Insider buying is the informative signal; routine selling is normal.
Short interest, days-to-cover, and institutional-ownership change require a data-plan upgrade (not yet available).
Forward-return IC, quintile spread & hit rate publish on /performance as the tracking panel accrues enough no-look-ahead history.
The QScore of 59 for AMH suggests a moderately attractive stock, with the short-term score of 62 being slightly more favorable than the long-term score of 57. AMH scores high on momentum, with a 12-month return and a bullish 50-day versus 200-day moving average crossover, and exhibits relatively low risk, with a beta of 0.8. However, the stock's value score is neutral, as it trades at a P/E of 27.4 and EV/EBITDA of 14.6, while its growth and profitability scores are also middling, with revenue growth of 8.0% and ROE near 7%.