MEDIUM confidence: 100% data completeness, but the composite (63) sits in the indecisive 30–70 range — strong-buy and short calls require a more decisive composite. What does confidence mean?
Technical context for active traders — derived from price, the 50/200-day moving averages, the 52-week range, and recent volume. Not part of the QScore.
AI classification of policy/regulatory sensitivity from the company's sector, industry, and business description. Exposure/sensitivity only — not a political opinion, a prediction of government action, or investment advice. As of 2026-07-10.
Fama-French 5-factor (2×3) + Momentum, monthly OLS with Newey-West errors. Bars show signed factor betas; faded bars/figures aren't statistically significant.
Dated events from the market calendar; the “also watch” items are AI-generated observations from QScoring data. Informational only — not investment advice, and dates can change.
Net insider -$790K over 180 days (0 open-market buys, 1 sells). Insider buying is the informative signal; routine selling is normal.
Short interest, days-to-cover, and institutional-ownership change require a data-plan upgrade (not yet available).
Forward-return IC, quintile spread & hit rate publish on /performance as the tracking panel accrues enough no-look-ahead history.
Avg target $336 (last qtr, 5 analysts) → $338 (last mo, 3) (+0.6%).
Buy-rated share 68% → 72% over ~3 months (+4pp).
| Quarter | Est. | Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 2026 | $3.47 | $3.53 | +1.7% |
| Jul 2026 | $3.26 | $3.41 | +4.6% |
| Apr 2026 | $2.86 | $2.93 | +2.4% |
| Jan 2026 | $2.86 | $2.86 | +0.0% |
| Oct 2025 | $2.99 | $3.08 | +3.0% |
| Jul 2025 | $2.91 | $3.03 | +4.1% |
| Apr 2025 | $2.74 | $2.70 | -1.5% |
| Jan 2025 | $2.76 | $2.91 | +5.4% |
Net buyback (repurchases less issuance) ÷ market cap, plus trailing dividend yield.
| Metric (USD) | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $21.8B— | $24.9B+14.1% | $24.1B-3.0% | $24.3B+0.5% | $24.5B+1.1% |
| EPS (dil.) | $9.95— | $11.21+12.7% | $10.45-6.8% | $11.09+6.1% | $11.97+7.9% |
| Free Cash Flow | $6.1B— | $5.7B-5.8% | $4.8B-16.9% | $5.9B+23.5% | $5.5B-6.7% |
| Gross Margin | 48.2% | 45.0%-3.2pp | 43.7%-1.4pp | 45.5%+1.9pp | 59.4%+13.9pp |
| Operating Margin | 42.8% | 39.9%-3.0pp | 37.7%-2.2pp | 40.1%+2.4pp | 40.1%+0.1pp |
| Net Margin | 29.9% | 28.1%-1.8pp | 26.4%-1.7pp | 27.8%+1.4pp | 29.1%+1.3pp |
Absolute figures with year-over-year change. Margins show the level with the change in percentage points (pp). “n/m” = not meaningful (prior ≤ 0); ⚠ marks a large percentage off a small base — read the dollar figure.
Working the DCF backward: holding the assumptions below, this is the free-cash-flow growth today's price implies over the next 10 years. It is a read on the price's embedded expectations — not a fair-value or target price.
The price implies FCF growth above the analyst consensus of 9.7%/yr (revenue basis).
Base free cash flow $5.4B (avg FY2023–FY2025; latest year $5.5B) · equity value $180.6B · levered FCF discounted at the cost of equity. Reverse DCF is illustrative, not advice.
The QScore of 63 for Union Pacific Corporation suggests a moderately attractive stock, driven by strong momentum and profitability scores of 70 and 71, respectively. The company exhibits strong momentum, with a 12-month return of 40.5%, and high profitability, with an ROE of 37.8%. However, the value score is relatively low at 46, indicating that the stock trades at a premium, with a P/E of 23.7. The short-term score is slightly higher than the long-term score, at 66 versus 60, indicating a slight divergence.