MEDIUM confidence: 100% data completeness, but the composite (63) sits in the indecisive 30–70 range — strong-buy and short calls require a more decisive composite. What does confidence mean?
Technical context for active traders — derived from price, the 50/200-day moving averages, the 52-week range, and recent volume. Not part of the QScore.
AI classification of policy/regulatory sensitivity from the company's sector, industry, and business description. Exposure/sensitivity only — not a political opinion, a prediction of government action, or investment advice. As of 2026-08-02.
Fama-French 5-factor (2×3) + Momentum, monthly OLS with Newey-West errors. Bars show signed factor betas; faded bars/figures aren't statistically significant.
Dated events from the market calendar; the “also watch” items are AI-generated observations from QScoring data. Informational only — not investment advice, and dates can change.
| Metric (USD) | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | FY2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $4.6B— | $5.0B+8.6% | $5.3B+5.4% | $5.6B+5.6% | $6.5B+16.9% |
| EPS (dil.) | $3.84— | $4.30+12.0% | $4.67+8.6% | $4.58-1.9% | $4.89+6.8% |
| Free Cash Flow | $1.4B— | $1.6B+13.4% | $1.7B+11.6% | $1.8B+1.3% | $2.3B+32.0% |
| Gross Margin | 70.6% | 71.0%+0.4pp | 72.0%+1.0pp | 72.4%+0.4pp | 74.3%+1.9pp |
| Operating Margin | 39.9% | 40.6%+0.7pp | 41.2%+0.6pp | 39.6%-1.6pp | 38.6%-1.1pp |
| Net Margin | 30.2% | 31.1%+0.9pp | 32.0%+0.9pp | 29.7%-2.3pp | 27.0%-2.7pp |
Absolute figures with year-over-year change. Margins show the level with the change in percentage points (pp). “n/m” = not meaningful (prior ≤ 0); ⚠ marks a large percentage off a small base — read the dollar figure.
Net insider -$3.8M over 180 days (0 open-market buys, 5 sells). Insider buying is the informative signal; routine selling is normal.
Short interest, days-to-cover, and institutional-ownership change require a data-plan upgrade (not yet available).
Forward-return IC, quintile spread & hit rate publish on /performance as the tracking panel accrues enough no-look-ahead history.
Net buyback (repurchases less issuance) ÷ market cap, plus trailing dividend yield.
Working the DCF backward: holding the assumptions below, this is the free-cash-flow growth today's price implies over the next 10 years. It is a read on the price's embedded expectations — not a fair-value or target price.
The price implies FCF growth below the analyst consensus of 8.0%/yr (revenue basis).
Base free cash flow $1.9B (avg FY2024–FY2026; latest year $2.3B) · equity value $43.4B · levered FCF discounted at the cost of equity. Reverse DCF is illustrative, not advice.
Fewer than 3 analysts refreshed a price target in the last month, so no revision can be computed. Prior quarter: $108 avg across 5 analysts.
Buy-rated share 10% → 11% over ~3 months (+1pp).
| Quarter | Est. | Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 2026 | $1.31 | $1.32 | +0.8% |
| Mar 2026 | $1.67 | $1.71 | +2.4% |
| Dec 2025 | $1.23 | $1.26 | +2.4% |
| Sep 2025 | $1.20 | $1.22 | +1.7% |
| Jun 2025 | $1.19 | $1.19 | +0.0% |
| Mar 2025 | $1.48 | $1.49 | +0.7% |
| Dec 2024 | $1.13 | $1.14 | +0.9% |
| Oct 2024 | $1.14 | $1.16 | +1.8% |
The QScore of 63 for PAYX indicates a moderately favorable outlook, driven by strong profitability and momentum. The stock scores high on profitability, with an ROE near 45%, and exhibits strong momentum, as evidenced by a 36.1% return over the past three months. In contrast, the value category scores lower, reflecting a P/E of 24.8 and P/B of 11.7, indicating that the stock trades at a premium. The long-term and short-term scores are relatively aligned, with only a slight divergence of 2 points.