MEDIUM confidence: 100% data completeness, but the composite (62) sits in the indecisive 30–70 range — strong-buy and short calls require a more decisive composite. What does confidence mean?
Technical context for active traders — derived from price, the 50/200-day moving averages, the 52-week range, and recent volume. Not part of the QScore.
Dated events from the market calendar; the “also watch” items are AI-generated observations from QScoring data. Informational only — not investment advice, and dates can change.
Fama-French 5-factor (2×3) + Momentum, monthly OLS with Newey-West errors. Bars show signed factor betas; faded bars/figures aren't statistically significant.
AI classification of policy/regulatory sensitivity from the company's sector, industry, and business description. Exposure/sensitivity only — not a political opinion, a prediction of government action, or investment advice. As of 2026-07-10.
No recent open-market insider transactions.
Short interest, days-to-cover, and institutional-ownership change require a data-plan upgrade (not yet available).
Forward-return IC, quintile spread & hit rate publish on /performance as the tracking panel accrues enough no-look-ahead history.
Net buyback (repurchases less issuance) ÷ market cap, plus trailing dividend yield.
| Metric (USD) | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $16.5B— | $17.1B+3.3% | $9.3B-45.5% | $10.6B+14.0% | $11.1B+4.4% |
| EPS (dil.) | $8.27— | $8.26-0.1% | $5.01-39.3% | $5.72+14.2% | $5.95+4.0% |
| Free Cash Flow | $832M— | $2.0B+145.5% | $1.0B-50.4% | $683M-32.6% | $953M+39.6% |
| Gross Margin | 13.1% | 12.7%-0.4pp | 13.4%+0.7pp | 12.7%-0.7pp | 15.3%+2.6pp |
| Operating Margin | 11.6% | 10.7%-0.9pp | 10.1%-0.6pp | 9.8%-0.3pp | 9.5%-0.3pp |
| Net Margin | 8.6% | 8.0%-0.6pp | 8.1%+0.1pp | 7.6%-0.5pp | 7.4%-0.3pp |
Absolute figures with year-over-year change. Margins show the level with the change in percentage points (pp). “n/m” = not meaningful (prior ≤ 0); ⚠ marks a large percentage off a small base — read the dollar figure.
Working the DCF backward: holding the assumptions below, this is the free-cash-flow growth today's price implies over the next 10 years. It is a read on the price's embedded expectations — not a fair-value or target price.
The price implies FCF growth above the analyst consensus of 6.8%/yr (revenue basis).
Base free cash flow $883M (avg FY2023–FY2025; latest year $953M) · equity value $25.9B · levered FCF discounted at the cost of equity. Reverse DCF is illustrative, not advice.
Avg target $189 (last qtr, 8 analysts) → $203 (last mo, 3) (+7.4%).
Buy-rated share 17% → 17% over ~3 months (+0pp).
| Quarter | Est. | Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 2026 | $1.69 | $2.03 | +20.1% |
| May 2026 | $1.33 | $1.71 | +28.6% |
| Feb 2026 | $1.47 | $1.49 | +1.4% |
| Nov 2025 | $1.39 | $1.64 | +18.0% |
| Aug 2025 | $1.25 | $1.34 | +7.2% |
| May 2025 | $1.37 | $1.47 | +7.3% |
| Feb 2025 | $1.38 | $1.68 | +21.7% |
| Nov 2024 | $1.35 | $1.63 | +20.7% |
The QScore of 62 for EXPD indicates a moderately favorable outlook, driven by strong momentum and low risk factors. The stock exhibits strong momentum, scoring 76, with a 12-month return of 69.4% and a bullish 50-day versus 200-day moving average trend. In contrast, value and growth scores are lower, at 48 and 47, respectively, due to a P/E of 28.9 and modest revenue growth of 4.4%. The short-term score of 67 is notably higher than the long-term score of 56, suggesting a recent surge in the stock's performance.