MEDIUM confidence: 100% data completeness, but the composite (59) sits in the indecisive 30–70 range — strong-buy and short calls require a more decisive composite. What does confidence mean?
Technical context for active traders — derived from price, the 50/200-day moving averages, the 52-week range, and recent volume. Not part of the QScore.
Fama-French 5-factor (2×3) + Momentum, monthly OLS with Newey-West errors. Bars show signed factor betas; faded bars/figures aren't statistically significant.
Dated events from the market calendar; the “also watch” items are AI-generated observations from QScoring data. Informational only — not investment advice, and dates can change.
AI classification of policy/regulatory sensitivity from the company's sector, industry, and business description. Exposure/sensitivity only — not a political opinion, a prediction of government action, or investment advice. As of 2026-07-10.
Net insider $200K over 180 days (1 open-market buys, 0 sells). Insider buying is the informative signal; routine selling is normal.
Short interest, days-to-cover, and institutional-ownership change require a data-plan upgrade (not yet available).
Forward-return IC, quintile spread & hit rate publish on /performance as the tracking panel accrues enough no-look-ahead history.
| Metric (USD) | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $14.5B— | $15.9B+10.2% | $16.1B+1.1% | $15.9B-1.3% | $16.0B+0.9% |
| EPS (dil.) | $8.51— | $9.77+14.8% | $9.74-0.3% | $11.71+20.2% | $10.49-10.4% |
| Free Cash Flow | $2.3B— | $1.9B-14.4% | $3.1B+59.3% | $2.8B-7.8% | $2.7B-4.8% |
| Gross Margin | 40.4% | 40.0%-0.4pp | 41.5%+1.5pp | 43.6%+2.2pp | 44.1%+0.5pp |
| Operating Margin | 24.1% | 23.8%-0.3pp | 25.1%+1.3pp | 26.8%+1.7pp | 26.3%-0.5pp |
| Net Margin | 18.6% | 19.0%+0.4pp | 18.4%-0.7pp | 21.9%+3.6pp | 19.1%-2.8pp |
Absolute figures with year-over-year change. Margins show the level with the change in percentage points (pp). “n/m” = not meaningful (prior ≤ 0); ⚠ marks a large percentage off a small base — read the dollar figure.
Fewer than 3 analysts refreshed a price target in the last month, so no revision can be computed. Prior quarter: $296 avg across 4 analysts.
Buy-rated share 11% → 13% over ~3 months (+1pp).
| Quarter | Est. | Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 2026 | $2.79 | $2.84 | +1.8% |
| Apr 2026 | $2.57 | $2.66 | +3.5% |
| Feb 2026 | $2.69 | $2.72 | +1.1% |
| Oct 2025 | $2.75 | $2.81 | +2.2% |
| Jul 2025 | $2.56 | $2.58 | +0.8% |
| Apr 2025 | $2.34 | $2.38 | +1.7% |
| Feb 2025 | $2.49 | $2.54 | +2.0% |
| Oct 2024 | $2.52 | $2.65 | +5.2% |
Net buyback (repurchases less issuance) ÷ market cap, plus trailing dividend yield.
Working the DCF backward: holding the assumptions below, this is the free-cash-flow growth today's price implies over the next 10 years. It is a read on the price's embedded expectations — not a fair-value or target price.
The price implies FCF growth above the analyst consensus of 3.7%/yr (revenue basis).
Base free cash flow $2.9B (avg FY2023–FY2025; latest year $2.7B) · equity value $83.5B · levered FCF discounted at the cost of equity. Reverse DCF is illustrative, not advice.
The QScore of 59 for ITW indicates a moderately favorable outlook, driven by strong profitability and low risk factors, with scores of 76 and 78, respectively. The stock's high ROE of 101.7% and operating margin of 26.5% contribute to its strong profitability score. However, ITW's value and growth scores are lower, at 40 and 42, due to its premium valuation, including a P/E of 26.2, and sluggish revenue growth of 0.9%. The short-term score is slightly higher than the long-term score, at 61 versus 58, reflecting the stock's recent momentum, with a 12-month return of 11.5% and a 3-month return of 16.1%.