MEDIUM confidence: 100% data completeness, but the composite (50) sits in the indecisive 30–70 range — strong-buy and short calls require a more decisive composite. What does confidence mean?
Technical context for active traders — derived from price, the 50/200-day moving averages, the 52-week range, and recent volume. Not part of the QScore.
AI classification of policy/regulatory sensitivity from the company's sector, industry, and business description. Exposure/sensitivity only — not a political opinion, a prediction of government action, or investment advice. As of 2026-07-10.
Fama-French 5-factor (2×3) + Momentum, monthly OLS with Newey-West errors. Bars show signed factor betas; faded bars/figures aren't statistically significant.
Dated events from the market calendar; the “also watch” items are AI-generated observations from QScoring data. Informational only — not investment advice, and dates can change.
Avg target $147 (last qtr, 11 analysts) → $147 (last mo, 6) (+0.1%).
Buy-rated share 89% → 92% over ~3 months (+3pp).
| Quarter | Est. | Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 2026 | $2.57 | $2.54 | -1.2% |
| Jul 2026 | $1.88 | $1.99 | +5.9% |
| Apr 2026 | $1.08 | $1.19 | +10.2% |
| Jan 2026 | $2.93 | $3.10 | +5.8% |
| Oct 2025 | $2.65 | $2.78 | +4.9% |
| Jul 2025 | $3.81 | $3.87 | +1.6% |
| Apr 2025 | $0.75 | $0.91 | +21.3% |
| Jan 2025 | $2.89 | $3.26 | +12.8% |
Net buyback (repurchases less issuance) ÷ market cap, plus trailing dividend yield.
Net insider -$37.8M over 180 days (0 open-market buys, 11 sells). Insider buying is the informative signal; routine selling is normal.
Short interest, days-to-cover, and institutional-ownership change require a data-plan upgrade (not yet available).
Forward-return IC, quintile spread & hit rate publish on /performance as the tracking panel accrues enough no-look-ahead history.
| Metric (USD) | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $24.6B— | $45.0B+82.5% | $53.7B+19.5% | $57.1B+6.2% | $59.1B+3.5% |
| EPS (dil.) | $-6.10— | $2.23n/m | $7.89+253.8% | $9.45+19.8% | $10.22+8.1% |
| Free Cash Flow | -$40M— | $1.2Bn/m | -$260M-120.9% | $3.8Bn/m | $2.6B-33.2% |
| Gross Margin | 2.9% | 23.7%+20.7pp | 28.3%+4.6pp | 34.0%+5.7pp | 64.1%+30.1pp |
| Operating Margin | -4.1% | 5.2%+9.3pp | 7.8%+2.6pp | 8.9%+1.1pp | 8.0%-1.0pp |
| Net Margin | -8.0% | 1.6%+9.6pp | 4.9%+3.2pp | 5.5%+0.6pp | 5.7%+0.2pp |
Absolute figures with year-over-year change. Margins show the level with the change in percentage points (pp). “n/m” = not meaningful (prior ≤ 0); ⚠ marks a large percentage off a small base — read the dollar figure.
Working the DCF backward: holding the assumptions below, this is the free-cash-flow growth today's price implies over the next 10 years. It is a read on the price's embedded expectations — not a fair-value or target price.
The price implies FCF growth below the analyst consensus of 5.8%/yr (revenue basis).
Base free cash flow $2.0B (avg FY2023–FY2025; latest year $2.6B) · equity value $33.0B · levered FCF discounted at the cost of equity. Reverse DCF is illustrative, not advice.
The QScore of 50 for UAL indicates a neutral outlook, with the stock's value score driving it up due to a low P/E of 9.3 and P/B of 1.9. However, growth and momentum scores pull it down, reflecting sluggish revenue growth of 3.5% and a decline of 20.8% over the past three months. The long-term score is slightly higher than the short-term score, suggesting a divergence in the stock's prospects over different time horizons, with the short-term score being 9 points lower at 45.