MEDIUM confidence: 100% data completeness, but the composite (59) sits in the indecisive 30–70 range — strong-buy and short calls require a more decisive composite. What does confidence mean?
Technical context for active traders — derived from price, the 50/200-day moving averages, the 52-week range, and recent volume. Not part of the QScore.
Fama-French 5-factor (2×3) + Momentum, monthly OLS with Newey-West errors. Bars show signed factor betas; faded bars/figures aren't statistically significant.
Avg target $147 (last qtr, 8 analysts) → $170 (last mo, 3) (+15.8%).
Buy-rated share 93% → 89% over ~3 months (-4pp).
| Quarter | Est. | Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 2026 | $1.08 | $1.19 | +10.2% |
| Jan 2026 | $2.93 | $3.10 | +5.8% |
| Oct 2025 | $2.65 | $2.78 | +4.9% |
| Jul 2025 | $3.81 | $3.87 | +1.6% |
| Apr 2025 | $0.75 | $0.91 | +21.3% |
| Jan 2025 | $2.89 | $3.26 | +12.8% |
| Oct 2024 | $3.17 | $3.33 | +5.0% |
| Jul 2024 | $3.93 | $4.14 | +5.3% |
| Metric (USD) | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $24.6B— | $45.0B+82.5% | $53.7B+19.5% | $57.1B+6.2% | $59.1B+3.5% |
| EPS (dil.) | $-6.10— | $2.23n/m | $7.89+253.8% | $9.45+19.8% | $10.22+8.1% |
| Free Cash Flow | -$40M— | $1.2Bn/m | -$260M-120.9% | $3.8Bn/m | $2.6B-33.2% |
| Gross Margin | 2.9% | 23.7%+20.7pp | 28.3%+4.6pp | 34.0%+5.7pp | 64.1%+30.1pp |
| Operating Margin | -4.1% | 5.2%+9.3pp | 7.8%+2.6pp | 8.9%+1.1pp | 8.0%-1.0pp |
| Net Margin | -8.0% | 1.6%+9.6pp | 4.9%+3.2pp | 5.5%+0.6pp | 5.7%+0.2pp |
Absolute figures with year-over-year change. Margins show the level with the change in percentage points (pp). “n/m” = not meaningful (prior ≤ 0); ⚠ marks a large percentage off a small base — read the dollar figure.
Net insider -$10.8M over 180 days (0 open-market buys, 5 sells). Insider buying is the informative signal; routine selling is normal.
Short interest, days-to-cover, and institutional-ownership change require a data-plan upgrade (not yet available).
Forward-return IC, quintile spread & hit rate publish on /performance as the tracking panel accrues enough no-look-ahead history.
Net buyback (repurchases less issuance) ÷ market cap, plus trailing dividend yield.
The QScore of 59 for UAL indicates a moderately positive outlook, driven by strong momentum with a 12-month return of 77.4% and a bullish 50-day versus 200-day moving average. The stock scores high on value, with a P/E of 12.1 and EV/EBITDA of 7.7, and exhibits strong profitability, with an ROE near 25%. However, growth scores are lower, weighed down by a decline in free cash flow growth of 33.2%. The short-term score is slightly higher than the long-term score, suggesting some near-term optimism.