MEDIUM confidence: 100% data completeness, but the composite (59) sits in the indecisive 30–70 range — strong-buy and short calls require a more decisive composite. What does confidence mean?
Technical context for active traders — derived from price, the 50/200-day moving averages, the 52-week range, and recent volume. Not part of the QScore.
AI classification of policy/regulatory sensitivity from the company's sector, industry, and business description. Exposure/sensitivity only — not a political opinion, a prediction of government action, or investment advice. As of 2026-07-10.
Dated events from the market calendar; the “also watch” items are AI-generated observations from QScoring data. Informational only — not investment advice, and dates can change.
Fama-French 5-factor (2×3) + Momentum, monthly OLS with Newey-West errors. Bars show signed factor betas; faded bars/figures aren't statistically significant.
| Metric (USD) | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $34.8B— | $36.9B+6.0% | $41.4B+12.1% | $46.4B+12.2% | $48.8B+5.2% |
| EPS (dil.) | $14.49— | $11.77-18.8% | $12.79+8.7% | $21.47+67.9% | $27.43+27.8% |
| Free Cash Flow | $7.3B— | $6.5B-11.1% | $7.7B+19.3% | $9.1B+17.7% | $10.6B+16.9% |
| Gross Margin | 27.2% | 23.1%-4.1pp | 21.6%-1.5pp | 26.7%+5.1pp | 29.4%+2.7pp |
| Operating Margin | 12.8% | 9.1%-3.7pp | 8.1%-0.9pp | 13.3%+5.2pp | 16.0%+2.7pp |
| Net Margin | 10.5% | 7.7%-2.8pp | 7.2%-0.5pp | 10.8%+3.5pp | 12.9%+2.1pp |
Absolute figures with year-over-year change. Margins show the level with the change in percentage points (pp). “n/m” = not meaningful (prior ≤ 0); ⚠ marks a large percentage off a small base — read the dollar figure.
Working the DCF backward: holding the assumptions below, this is the free-cash-flow growth today's price implies over the next 10 years. It is a read on the price's embedded expectations — not a fair-value or target price.
The price implies FCF growth below the analyst consensus of 1.4%/yr (revenue basis).
Base free cash flow $9.1B (avg FY2023–FY2025; latest year $10.6B) · equity value $81.3B · levered FCF discounted at the cost of equity. Reverse DCF is illustrative, not advice.
Avg target $379 (last qtr, 3 analysts) → $379 (last mo, 3) (+0.0%).
Buy-rated share 24% → 21% over ~3 months (-4pp).
| Quarter | Est. | Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 2026 | $7.39 | $9.18 | +24.2% |
| Jul 2026 | $5.41 | $10.04 | +85.6% |
| Apr 2026 | $7.07 | $7.71 | +9.1% |
| Jan 2026 | $8.80 | $11.13 | +26.5% |
| Oct 2025 | $6.39 | $8.14 | +27.4% |
| Jul 2025 | $3.65 | $6.51 | +78.4% |
| Apr 2025 | $0.79 | $1.91 | +143.3% |
| Jan 2025 | $6.70 | $9.15 | +36.6% |
Net insider -$97.4M over 180 days (0 open-market buys, 31 sells). Insider buying is the informative signal; routine selling is normal.
Short interest, days-to-cover, and institutional-ownership change require a data-plan upgrade (not yet available).
Forward-return IC, quintile spread & hit rate publish on /performance as the tracking panel accrues enough no-look-ahead history.
Net buyback (repurchases less issuance) ÷ market cap, plus trailing dividend yield.
The QScore of 59 for TRV indicates a moderately attractive stock, with the short-term score of 63 being notably higher than the long-term score of 56. TRV scores high on momentum, driven by its +48.3% return over the past year, and exhibits strong profitability with an ROE of 26.2%. However, its growth and value categories are more neutral, with a P/E of 10.2 and revenue growth of 5.2%, suggesting the stock trades at a reasonable valuation. The divergence between long-term and short-term scores may reflect differing market expectations for TRV's future performance.