MEDIUM confidence: 100% data completeness, but the composite (39) sits in the indecisive 30–70 range — strong-buy and short calls require a more decisive composite. What does confidence mean?
Technical context for active traders — derived from price, the 50/200-day moving averages, the 52-week range, and recent volume. Not part of the QScore.
AI classification of policy/regulatory sensitivity from the company's sector, industry, and business description. Exposure/sensitivity only — not a political opinion, a prediction of government action, or investment advice. As of 2026-07-10.
Fama-French 5-factor (2×3) + Momentum, monthly OLS with Newey-West errors. Bars show signed factor betas; faded bars/figures aren't statistically significant.
Dated events from the market calendar; the “also watch” items are AI-generated observations from QScoring data. Informational only — not investment advice, and dates can change.
| Metric (USD) | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $451M— | $667M+48.0% | $632M-5.4% | $706M+11.8% | $798M+13.1% |
| EPS (dil.) | $3.87— | $6.42+65.9% | $5.86-8.7% | $6.57+12.1% | $6.97+6.0% |
| Free Cash Flow | $250M— | $428M+71.4% | $403M-5.8% | $461M+14.3% | $486M+5.5% |
| Gross Margin | 93.5% | 95.1%+1.6pp | 92.3%-2.7pp | 89.9%-2.4pp | 85.5%-4.4pp |
| Operating Margin | 80.4% | 84.3%+3.9pp | 77.0%-7.3pp | 76.4%-0.6pp | 74.2%-2.2pp |
| Net Margin | 59.9% | 66.9%+7.0pp | 64.2%-2.7pp | 64.3%+0.1pp | 60.3%-4.0pp |
Absolute figures with year-over-year change. Margins show the level with the change in percentage points (pp). “n/m” = not meaningful (prior ≤ 0); ⚠ marks a large percentage off a small base — read the dollar figure.
Buy-rated share 50% → 50% over ~3 months (+0pp).
| Quarter | Est. | Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 2026 | $2.18 | $2.23 | +2.3% |
| May 2026 | $2.02 | $2.07 | +2.5% |
| Feb 2026 | $1.79 | $1.79 | +0.0% |
| Nov 2025 | $1.92 | $1.76 | -8.5% |
| Aug 2025 | $1.83 | $1.68 | -8.0% |
| May 2025 | $1.76 | $1.75 | -0.4% |
| Feb 2025 | $1.61 | $1.71 | +6.0% |
| Nov 2024 | $1.78 | $1.54 | -13.6% |
Net insider -$1.6M over 180 days (90 open-market buys, 3 sells). Insider buying is the informative signal; routine selling is normal.
Short interest, days-to-cover, and institutional-ownership change require a data-plan upgrade (not yet available).
Forward-return IC, quintile spread & hit rate publish on /performance as the tracking panel accrues enough no-look-ahead history.
Net buyback (repurchases less issuance) ÷ market cap, plus trailing dividend yield.
Working the DCF backward: holding the assumptions below, this is the free-cash-flow growth today's price implies over the next 10 years. It is a read on the price's embedded expectations — not a fair-value or target price.
The price implies FCF growth above the analyst consensus of 14.9%/yr (revenue basis).
Base free cash flow $450M (avg FY2023–FY2025; latest year $486M) · equity value $23.8B · levered FCF discounted at the cost of equity. Reverse DCF is illustrative, not advice.
The QScore of 39 for TPL indicates a neutral outlook, driven by a strong profitability profile, with an ROE of 35.8% and operating margin of 74.9%, but offset by poor value scores due to high valuation multiples, including a P/E of 44.0 and P/B of 14.2. The stock exhibits strong growth, with revenue growth of 13.1%, and momentum is mixed, with a 20.8% return over the past year, but a recent decline of 10.8% over the past three months. The long-term and short-term scores are relatively aligned, suggesting a consistent view of the stock's fundamentals.