MEDIUM confidence: 100% data completeness, but the composite (52) sits in the indecisive 30–70 range — strong-buy and short calls require a more decisive composite. What does confidence mean?
Technical context for active traders — derived from price, the 50/200-day moving averages, the 52-week range, and recent volume. Not part of the QScore.
Fama-French 5-factor (2×3) + Momentum, monthly OLS with Newey-West errors. Bars show signed factor betas; faded bars/figures aren't statistically significant.
AI classification of policy/regulatory sensitivity from the company's sector, industry, and business description. Exposure/sensitivity only — not a political opinion, a prediction of government action, or investment advice. As of 2026-07-10.
Dated events from the market calendar; the “also watch” items are AI-generated observations from QScoring data. Informational only — not investment advice, and dates can change.
Net buyback (repurchases less issuance) ÷ market cap, plus trailing dividend yield.
No recent open-market insider transactions.
Short interest, days-to-cover, and institutional-ownership change require a data-plan upgrade (not yet available).
Forward-return IC, quintile spread & hit rate publish on /performance as the tracking panel accrues enough no-look-ahead history.
Avg target $57 (last qtr, 9 analysts) → $53 (last mo, 4) (-8.2%).
Buy-rated share 75% → 76% over ~3 months (+1pp).
| Quarter | Est. | Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 2026 | $0.62 | $0.65 | +4.3% |
| Aug 2026 | $0.59 | $0.69 | +16.9% |
| May 2026 | $0.59 | $0.70 | +18.2% |
| Feb 2026 | $0.64 | $0.71 | +11.1% |
| Nov 2025 | $0.56 | $0.53 | -5.7% |
| Aug 2025 | $0.45 | $0.69 | +52.8% |
| May 2025 | $0.46 | $0.48 | +4.9% |
| Feb 2025 | $0.52 | $0.62 | +18.5% |
| Metric (USD) | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $5.6B— | $1.5B-73.0% | $1.9B+23.3% | $2.6B+41.4% | $4.7B+77.9% |
| EPS (dil.) | $65.75— | $-0.19-100.3% | $0.22n/m | $0.06-70.7% | $1.21+1778.9% |
| Free Cash Flow | $1.5B— | $1.4B-6.8% | $704M-48.8% | $504M-28.4% | $1.0B+99.1% |
| Gross Margin | 99.7% | 98.6%-1.1pp | 97.9%-0.6pp | 96.7%-1.3pp | 96.9%+0.2pp |
| Operating Margin | 83.6% | -1.6%-85.2pp | 4.5%+6.1pp | -0.9%-5.5pp | 14.7%+15.6pp |
| Net Margin | 39.1% | 6.1%-32.9pp | 4.3%-1.8pp | 0.9%-3.4pp | 4.0%+3.1pp |
Absolute figures with year-over-year change. Margins show the level with the change in percentage points (pp). “n/m” = not meaningful (prior ≤ 0); ⚠ marks a large percentage off a small base — read the dollar figure.
Working the DCF backward: holding the assumptions below, this is the free-cash-flow growth today's price implies over the next 10 years. It is a read on the price's embedded expectations — not a fair-value or target price.
The price implies FCF growth below the analyst consensus of 12.9%/yr (revenue basis).
Base free cash flow $737M (avg FY2023–FY2025; latest year $1.0B) · equity value $17.9B · levered FCF discounted at the cost of equity. Reverse DCF is illustrative, not advice.
The QScore of 52 indicates a neutral outlook for TPG, driven by a strong growth profile, with revenue and EPS growth of 77.9% and 478.3%, respectively. However, this is offset by a relatively low value score, as the stock trades at a premium with a P/E of 31.8 and P/B of 5.9. The company exhibits strong momentum in some areas, such as its bullish 50-day versus 200-day moving average, but its 12-month return is -16.9%, and its risk profile is elevated with a beta of 1.5.