MEDIUM confidence: 100% data completeness, but the composite (49) sits in the indecisive 30–70 range — strong-buy and short calls require a more decisive composite. What does confidence mean?
Technical context for active traders — derived from price, the 50/200-day moving averages, the 52-week range, and recent volume. Not part of the QScore.
Fama-French 5-factor (2×3) + Momentum, monthly OLS with Newey-West errors. Bars show signed factor betas; faded bars/figures aren't statistically significant.
| Metric (USD) | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | FY2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $8.0B— | $8.5B+6.6% | $8.2B-4.1% | $8.7B+6.7% | $9.1B+3.7% |
| EPS (dil.) | $5.83— | $-0.86-114.8% | $7.13n/m | $-11.57-262.3% | $-1.30n/m |
| Free Cash Flow | $719M— | $717M-0.3% | $643M-10.3% | $817M+27.0% | $1.2B+41.6% |
| Gross Margin | 33.8% | 32.8%-0.9pp | 38.1%+5.2pp | 38.8%+0.7pp | 33.5%-5.3pp |
| Operating Margin | 12.8% | 1.8%-11.0pp | 16.0%+14.1pp | -7.7%-23.7pp | 4.0%+11.7pp |
| Net Margin | 7.9% | -1.1%-9.0pp | 9.1%+10.2pp | -14.1%-23.2pp | -1.5%+12.6pp |
Absolute figures with year-over-year change. Margins show the level with the change in percentage points (pp). “n/m” = not meaningful (prior ≤ 0); ⚠ marks a large percentage off a small base — read the dollar figure.
Avg target $119 (last qtr, 19 analysts) → $125 (last mo, 10) (+4.3%).
Buy-rated share 45% → 48% over ~3 months (+3pp).
| Quarter | Est. | Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 2026 | $2.64 | $2.77 | +4.9% |
| Feb 2026 | $2.27 | $2.38 | +4.8% |
| Nov 2025 | $2.10 | $2.10 | +0.0% |
| Aug 2025 | $1.93 | $1.90 | -1.6% |
| Jun 2025 | $2.24 | $2.31 | +3.1% |
| Feb 2025 | $2.37 | $2.61 | +10.1% |
| Nov 2024 | $2.50 | $2.76 | +10.4% |
| Aug 2024 | $2.17 | $2.44 | +12.4% |
Net buyback (repurchases less issuance) ÷ market cap, plus trailing dividend yield.
Net insider -$2.5M over 180 days (1 open-market buys, 5 sells). Insider buying is the informative signal; routine selling is normal.
Short interest, days-to-cover, and institutional-ownership change require a data-plan upgrade (not yet available).
Forward-return IC, quintile spread & hit rate publish on /performance as the tracking panel accrues enough no-look-ahead history.
The QScore of 49 for SJM indicates a neutral outlook, with the stock's short-term score exceeding its long-term score by 8 points. SJM scores high on growth and momentum, driven by its 88.8% EPS growth and 20.8% 12-month return. However, its value and profitability scores are lower, due to a high EV/EBITDA of 18.9 and negative ROE of -2.4%, which weigh on its overall QScore. The stock trades at a premium, with a P/E of -89.0, although this metric is not meaningful in this case due to negative earnings.