MEDIUM confidence: 100% data completeness, but the composite (47) sits in the indecisive 30–70 range — strong-buy and short calls require a more decisive composite. What does confidence mean?
Technical context for active traders — derived from price, the 50/200-day moving averages, the 52-week range, and recent volume. Not part of the QScore.
AI classification of policy/regulatory sensitivity from the company's sector, industry, and business description. Exposure/sensitivity only — not a political opinion, a prediction of government action, or investment advice. As of 2026-07-12.
Fama-French 5-factor (2×3) + Momentum, monthly OLS with Newey-West errors. Bars show signed factor betas; faded bars/figures aren't statistically significant.
Dated events from the market calendar; the “also watch” items are AI-generated observations from QScoring data. Informational only — not investment advice, and dates can change.
| Metric (USD) | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | FY2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $8.0B— | $8.5B+6.6% | $8.2B-4.1% | $8.7B+6.7% | $9.1B+3.7% |
| EPS (dil.) | $5.83— | $-0.86-114.8% | $7.13n/m | $-11.57-262.3% | $-1.30n/m |
| Free Cash Flow | $719M— | $717M-0.3% | $643M-10.3% | $817M+27.0% | $1.2B+41.6% |
| Gross Margin | 33.8% | 32.8%-0.9pp | 38.1%+5.2pp | 38.8%+0.7pp | 33.5%-5.3pp |
| Operating Margin | 12.8% | 1.8%-11.0pp | 16.0%+14.1pp | -7.7%-23.7pp | 4.0%+11.7pp |
| Net Margin | 7.9% | -1.1%-9.0pp | 9.1%+10.2pp | -14.1%-23.2pp | -1.5%+12.6pp |
Absolute figures with year-over-year change. Margins show the level with the change in percentage points (pp). “n/m” = not meaningful (prior ≤ 0); ⚠ marks a large percentage off a small base — read the dollar figure.
Fewer than 3 analysts refreshed a price target in the last month, so no revision can be computed. Prior quarter: $121 avg across 14 analysts.
Buy-rated share 50% → 53% over ~3 months (+3pp).
| Quarter | Est. | Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 2026 | $2.64 | $2.77 | +4.9% |
| Feb 2026 | $2.27 | $2.38 | +4.8% |
| Nov 2025 | $2.10 | $2.10 | +0.0% |
| Aug 2025 | $1.93 | $1.90 | -1.6% |
| Jun 2025 | $2.24 | $2.31 | +3.1% |
| Feb 2025 | $2.37 | $2.61 | +10.1% |
| Nov 2024 | $2.50 | $2.76 | +10.4% |
| Aug 2024 | $2.17 | $2.44 | +12.4% |
Net buyback (repurchases less issuance) ÷ market cap, plus trailing dividend yield.
Net insider -$3.6M over 180 days (1 open-market buys, 7 sells). Insider buying is the informative signal; routine selling is normal.
Short interest, days-to-cover, and institutional-ownership change require a data-plan upgrade (not yet available).
Forward-return IC, quintile spread & hit rate publish on /performance as the tracking panel accrues enough no-look-ahead history.
Working the DCF backward: holding the assumptions below, this is the free-cash-flow growth today's price implies over the next 10 years. It is a read on the price's embedded expectations — not a fair-value or target price.
The price implies FCF growth above the analyst consensus of 0.1%/yr (revenue basis).
Base free cash flow $872M (avg FY2024–FY2026; latest year $1.2B) · equity value $12.9B · levered FCF discounted at the cost of equity. Reverse DCF is illustrative, not advice.
The QScore of 47 for SJM suggests a neutral outlook, with the stock's growth and momentum factors driving the score up, while value and risk factors pull it down. The company scores high on growth, with notable EPS growth of 88.8% and revenue growth of 3.7%, and exhibits strong momentum with a 20.3% return over the past three months. However, it trades at a premium, as indicated by its low value score, and exhibits weak profitability, with an ROE of -2.4%. The long-term and short-term scores are relatively aligned, with only a 5-point difference.