MEDIUM confidence: 100% data completeness, but the composite (59) sits in the indecisive 30–70 range — strong-buy and short calls require a more decisive composite. What does confidence mean?
Technical context for active traders — derived from price, the 50/200-day moving averages, the 52-week range, and recent volume. Not part of the QScore.
AI classification of policy/regulatory sensitivity from the company's sector, industry, and business description. Exposure/sensitivity only — not a political opinion, a prediction of government action, or investment advice. As of 2026-07-10.
Dated events from the market calendar; the “also watch” items are AI-generated observations from QScoring data. Informational only — not investment advice, and dates can change.
Fama-French 5-factor (2×3) + Momentum, monthly OLS with Newey-West errors. Bars show signed factor betas; faded bars/figures aren't statistically significant.
| Metric (USD) | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $9.8B— | $11.2B+14.1% | $12.8B+15.1% | $14.7B+14.8% | $15.9B+7.9% |
| EPS (dil.) | $6.63— | $6.98+5.3% | $7.97+14.2% | $9.70+21.7% | $10.30+6.2% |
| Free Cash Flow | $6.6B— | -$19M-100.3% | -$3.7Bn/m | $1.9Bn/m | $2.2B+15.2% |
| Gross Margin | 98.8% | 96.4%-2.4pp | 88.3%-8.1pp | 85.4%-2.8pp | 88.2%+2.7pp |
| Operating Margin | 18.3% | 18.1%-0.2pp | 17.8%-0.4pp | 17.9%+0.2pp | 28.7%+10.7pp |
| Net Margin | 14.3% | 13.5%-0.8pp | 13.5%+0.0pp | 14.0%+0.5pp | 13.4%-0.6pp |
Absolute figures with year-over-year change. Margins show the level with the change in percentage points (pp). “n/m” = not meaningful (prior ≤ 0); ⚠ marks a large percentage off a small base — read the dollar figure.
Avg target $182 (last qtr, 9 analysts) → $186 (last mo, 4) (+2.0%).
Buy-rated share 43% → 36% over ~3 months (-7pp).
| Quarter | Est. | Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 2026 | $2.93 | $3.14 | +7.2% |
| Apr 2026 | $2.76 | $2.83 | +2.5% |
| Jan 2026 | $2.83 | $2.86 | +1.1% |
| Oct 2025 | $2.83 | $3.11 | +9.9% |
| Jul 2025 | $2.37 | $2.18 | -8.0% |
| Apr 2025 | $2.45 | $2.42 | -1.2% |
| Jan 2025 | $2.62 | $2.93 | +11.8% |
| Oct 2024 | $2.41 | $2.95 | +22.4% |
Net buyback (repurchases less issuance) ÷ market cap, plus trailing dividend yield.
Net insider -$7.0M over 180 days (0 open-market buys, 3 sells). Insider buying is the informative signal; routine selling is normal.
Short interest, days-to-cover, and institutional-ownership change require a data-plan upgrade (not yet available).
Forward-return IC, quintile spread & hit rate publish on /performance as the tracking panel accrues enough no-look-ahead history.
Working the DCF backward: holding the assumptions below, this is the free-cash-flow growth today's price implies over the next 10 years. It is a read on the price's embedded expectations — not a fair-value or target price.
The price implies FCF growth above the analyst consensus of 10.5%/yr (revenue basis).
Base free cash flow $170M (avg FY2023–FY2025; latest year $2.2B) · equity value $34.5B · levered FCF discounted at the cost of equity. Reverse DCF is illustrative, not advice.
The QScore of 59 for RJF indicates a moderately attractive stock, driven by its strong momentum and low risk profile, with a momentum score of 63 and a risk score of 71. The stock's value score of 55 is relatively neutral, with a P/E of 15.4, while its growth and profitability scores are somewhat lower, at 48 and 51, respectively. The short-term score of 61 is slightly higher than the long-term score of 56, suggesting some recent strength, with the stock exhibiting a 12-month return of 6.6% and a 3-month return of 16.6%.