MEDIUM confidence: 100% data completeness, but the composite (41) sits in the indecisive 30–70 range — strong-buy and short calls require a more decisive composite. What does confidence mean?
Technical context for active traders — derived from price, the 50/200-day moving averages, the 52-week range, and recent volume. Not part of the QScore.
AI classification of policy/regulatory sensitivity from the company's sector, industry, and business description. Exposure/sensitivity only — not a political opinion, a prediction of government action, or investment advice. As of 2026-07-10.
Dated events from the market calendar; the “also watch” items are AI-generated observations from QScoring data. Informational only — not investment advice, and dates can change.
Fama-French 5-factor (2×3) + Momentum, monthly OLS with Newey-West errors. Bars show signed factor betas; faded bars/figures aren't statistically significant.
Net buyback (repurchases less issuance) ÷ market cap, plus trailing dividend yield.
Working the DCF backward: holding the assumptions below, this is the free-cash-flow growth today's price implies over the next 10 years. It is a read on the price's embedded expectations — not a fair-value or target price.
The price implies FCF growth below the analyst consensus of 12.8%/yr (revenue basis).
Base free cash flow $1.0B (avg FY2023–FY2025; latest year $1.2B) · equity value $16.2B · levered FCF discounted at the cost of equity. Reverse DCF is illustrative, not advice.
| Metric (USD) | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $824M— | $1.4B+66.3% | $1.7B+26.4% | $2.3B+32.6% | $2.9B+25.0% |
| EPS (dil.) | $-0.93— | $-0.02n/m | $0.11n/m | $0.20+81.8% | $0.12-40.0% |
| Free Cash Flow | $276M— | $663M+139.8% | $881M+32.9% | $935M+6.1% | $1.2B+28.1% |
| Gross Margin | -81.7% | 34.7%+116.4pp | 49.7%+15.0pp | 55.7%+6.0pp | 55.4%-0.3pp |
| Operating Margin | -112.5% | -0.2%+112.4pp | 18.4%+18.5pp | 26.4%+8.1pp | 21.9%-4.6pp |
| Net Margin | -45.7% | -0.7%+45.0pp | 3.1%+3.8pp | 4.8%+1.6pp | 2.7%-2.0pp |
Absolute figures with year-over-year change. Margins show the level with the change in percentage points (pp). “n/m” = not meaningful (prior ≤ 0); ⚠ marks a large percentage off a small base — read the dollar figure.
Net insider $0 over 180 days (0 open-market buys, 1 sells). Insider buying is the informative signal; routine selling is normal.
Short interest, days-to-cover, and institutional-ownership change require a data-plan upgrade (not yet available).
Forward-return IC, quintile spread & hit rate publish on /performance as the tracking panel accrues enough no-look-ahead history.
Fewer than 3 analysts refreshed a price target in the last month, so no revision can be computed. Prior quarter: $12 avg across 5 analysts.
Buy-rated share 56% → 58% over ~3 months (+2pp).
| Quarter | Est. | Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 2026 | $0.23 | $0.24 | +6.6% |
| Jul 2026 | $0.22 | $0.22 | +1.6% |
| Apr 2026 | $0.19 | $0.19 | +0.0% |
| Feb 2026 | $0.22 | $0.24 | +9.1% |
| Oct 2025 | $0.22 | $0.22 | -0.7% |
| Jul 2025 | $0.21 | $0.21 | +1.6% |
| May 2025 | $0.18 | $0.17 | -7.7% |
| Feb 2025 | $0.21 | $0.21 | -1.9% |
The QScore of 41 for Blue Owl Capital indicates a neutral outlook, with the stock's high valuation and poor momentum offset by its strong growth prospects. The Value category scores low due to the stock's high P/E of 86.9 and P/B of 3.6, while the Growth category scores relatively high driven by 25% revenue growth and 28% free cash flow growth. The short-term score is slightly higher than the long-term score, but the divergence is not significant. Overall, the stock trades at a premium and exhibits strong growth, but its momentum is weak, with a 12-month return of -38.1%.