MEDIUM confidence: 100% data completeness, but the composite (52) sits in the indecisive 30–70 range — strong-buy and short calls require a more decisive composite. What does confidence mean?
Technical context for active traders — derived from price, the 50/200-day moving averages, the 52-week range, and recent volume. Not part of the QScore.
Dated events from the market calendar; the “also watch” items are AI-generated observations from QScoring data. Informational only — not investment advice, and dates can change.
Fama-French 5-factor (2×3) + Momentum, monthly OLS with Newey-West errors. Bars show signed factor betas; faded bars/figures aren't statistically significant.
AI classification of policy/regulatory sensitivity from the company's sector, industry, and business description. Exposure/sensitivity only — not a political opinion, a prediction of government action, or investment advice. As of 2026-07-10.
| Metric (USD) | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $8.7B— | $12.5B+44.0% | $10.9B-12.7% | $9.2B-15.9% | $8.7B-4.5% |
| EPS (dil.) | $5.32— | $14.08+164.7% | $7.90-43.9% | $4.21-46.7% | $4.78+13.5% |
| Free Cash Flow | $1.6B— | $2.0B+26.4% | $1.4B-30.1% | $1.4B-0.4% | $1.5B+6.1% |
| Gross Margin | 48.8% | 55.2%+6.4pp | 54.2%-1.0pp | 54.4%+0.2pp | 28.6%-25.9pp |
| Operating Margin | 17.5% | 30.9%+13.4pp | 26.3%-4.6pp | 17.3%-9.1pp | 21.6%+4.4pp |
| Net Margin | 16.4% | 29.2%+12.8pp | 19.2%-10.0pp | 12.3%-6.9pp | 14.2%+1.9pp |
Absolute figures with year-over-year change. Margins show the level with the change in percentage points (pp). “n/m” = not meaningful (prior ≤ 0); ⚠ marks a large percentage off a small base — read the dollar figure.
Net insider -$634K over 180 days (0 open-market buys, 1 sells). Insider buying is the informative signal; routine selling is normal.
Short interest, days-to-cover, and institutional-ownership change require a data-plan upgrade (not yet available).
Forward-return IC, quintile spread & hit rate publish on /performance as the tracking panel accrues enough no-look-ahead history.
Net buyback (repurchases less issuance) ÷ market cap, plus trailing dividend yield.
Working the DCF backward: holding the assumptions below, this is the free-cash-flow growth today's price implies over the next 10 years. It is a read on the price's embedded expectations — not a fair-value or target price.
The price implies FCF growth below the analyst consensus of -0.9%/yr (revenue basis).
Base free cash flow $1.4B (avg FY2023–FY2025; latest year $1.5B) · equity value $17.2B · levered FCF discounted at the cost of equity. Reverse DCF is illustrative, not advice.
Avg target $71 (last qtr, 14 analysts) → $75 (last mo, 6) (+5.4%).
Buy-rated share 76% → 83% over ~3 months (+7pp).
| Quarter | Est. | Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 2026 | $1.94 | $1.74 | -10.3% |
| May 2026 | $1.89 | $1.90 | +0.5% |
| Feb 2026 | $1.01 | $1.39 | +37.6% |
| Nov 2025 | $0.95 | $1.03 | +8.6% |
| Jul 2025 | $1.04 | $1.02 | -1.9% |
| May 2025 | $0.92 | $1.42 | +54.2% |
| Feb 2025 | $1.23 | $1.35 | +9.8% |
| Nov 2024 | $1.14 | $1.85 | +62.3% |
The QScore of 52 for Ovintiv Inc. suggests a neutral outlook, driven by strong momentum with a 12-month return of 57.2% and a bullish 50-day versus 200-day moving average. The stock scores high on value, with a P/E of 17.6 and P/B of 1.5, but is dragged down by lower growth and risk scores, reflecting negative revenue growth and moderate volatility. The long-term and short-term scores are relatively aligned, with only a slight divergence of 3 points.